213
WTPZ41 KNHC 182042
TCDEP1
HURRICANE TRUDY DISCUSSION NUMBER 22
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP212026
200 PM MST SUN OCT 18 2026
AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INVESTIGATING TRUDY
THIS AFTERNOON FOUND MAXIMUM 700 MB FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OF 95 KT IN
THE NORTHEAST EYEWALL, WITH A DROPSONDE IN THAT AREA SUGGESTING
SURFACE WINDS OF ABOUT 85 KT. THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE WAS NEAR
974 MB. THUS, THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS LOWERED TO 85 KT. DURING
THE LAST HOUR OR SO, THE HURRICANE'S CLOUD PATTERN HAS STARTED TO
LOSE ORGANIZATION, AND THIS IS LIKELY A SIGN OF THE FORECAST
INCREASING SHEAR AND THE UPCOMING WEAKENING TREND.
THE INITIAL MOTION NORTHWESTWARD AT A SLOWER FORWARD SPEED OR 325/5
KT. A TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST AT AN EVEN SLOWER FORWARD
SPEED IS FORECAST AS TRUDY SHEARS APART VERTICALLY AND BECOMES
STEERED BY THE LIGHTER LOW- TO MID-LEVEL FLOW. THE NEW FORECAST
TRACK IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS TRACK AND LIES NEAR THE CENTER OF
THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE. ON THE FORECAST TRACK, THE HURRICANE WILL
MOVE AWAY FROM SOUTHWEST AND WEST-CENTRAL MEXICO THIS AFTERNOON AND
THEN MOVE SLOWLY SOUTH OF BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
TRUDY IS STARTING TO ENCOUNTER INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR AND A
DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIRMASS. THE DYNAMICAL INTENSITY GUIDANCE
FORECASTS THIS COMBINATION TO CAUSE RAPID WEAKENING STARTING NEAR
THE 12 H POINT AT THE LATEST, AND THE INTENSITY FORECAST FOLLOWS
THE TREND OF THIS GUIDANCE. THE NEW FORECAST FOLLOWS THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST IN SHOWING TRUDY DEGENERATING TO A POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE
BY 60 HOURS AND DISSIPATING IN 3 OR 4 DAYS. BOTH OF THESE COULD
OCCUR SOONER THAN CURRENTLY PREDICTED.
KEY MESSAGES:
1. ALTHOUGH TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE MOVING AWAY FROM THE
MEXICAN COAST, GUSTS TO TROPICAL STORM-FORCE ARE POSSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER PORTIONS OF THE COAST OF WEST-CENTRAL
MEXICO AND THE ISLAS MARIAS.
2. COASTAL FLOODING DUE TO STORM SURGE SHOULD SUBSIDE THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.
3. HEAVY RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH TRUDY WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE
SOUTHWEST MEXICAN COAST IN JALISCO THROUGH TONIGHT. THIS RAINFALL
MAY PRODUCE AREAS OF FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES, ESPECIALLY IN AREAS
ALONG STEEP TERRAIN.
4. LARGE SWELLS WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE COAST OF SOUTHWESTERN
MEXICO AND WEST-CENTRAL MEXICO DURING THE NEXT TWO TO THREE DAYS,
CAUSING LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 18/2100Z 19.5N 107.0W 85 KT 100 MPH
12H 19/0600Z 19.9N 107.4W 80 KT 90 MPH
24H 19/1800Z 20.1N 108.0W 65 KT 75 MPH
36H 20/0600Z 20.3N 108.7W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 20/1800Z 20.7N 109.3W 40 KT 45 MPH
60H 21/0600Z 21.4N 109.7W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 21/1800Z 21.9N 110.2W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 22/1800Z...DISSIPATED
FORECASTER BEVEN
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