120
WTPZ41 KNHC 190244
TCDEP1
HURRICANE TRUDY DISCUSSION NUMBER 23
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP212026
800 PM MST SUN OCT 18 2026
EXAMINING THE LAST-LIGHT VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY OF TRUDY, IT IS
BECOMING CLEAR THAT THE HURRICANE IS STARTING TO RAPIDLY WEAKEN. THE
COLDEST CLOUD TOPS WITHIN THE CYCLONE ON INFRARED IMAGERY ARE NOW
AROUND -55 DEGREES C, AND THE CONVECTION CONTINUES TO DECLINE AT A
STEADY RATE. THIS DEGRADATION IN TRUDY'S STRUCTURE IS LIKELY DUE TO
A COMBINATION OF THE SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR AND SOME DRY AIR INTRUSION
INTO THE CORE OF THE CYCLONE. USING A COMBINATION OF THE OBJECTIVE
AND SUBJECTIVE INTENSITY ESTIMATES, THE INTENSITY HAS BEEN LOWERED
TO 70 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY.
A WSF-M MICROWAVE PASS AT 0040 UTC WAS VERY USEFUL IN LOCATING THE
CENTER OF TRUDY, WHICH WAS FURTHER SOUTH AND WEST OF THE DVORAK
POSITION, THOUGH THE INITIAL MOTION IS STILL ESTIMATED TOWARDS THE
NORTHWEST OR 315/6 KT. A TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR WEST
ALONG WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR AS TRUDY
CONTINUES TO WEAKEN. AS THE CYCLONE WEAKENS, LOW- TO MID-LEVEL FLOW
WILL BECOME THE MAIN STEERING FOR TRUDY. TRUDY WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
AWAY FROM WEST-CENTRAL MEXICO, AND THEN MOVE SOUTH OF BAJA
CALIFORNIA SUR OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO. THE CURRENT NHC TRACK
FORECAST IS FARTHER SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS ONE, PARTIALLY DUE TO THE
ADJUSTMENT IN THE INITIAL POSITION, BUT REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT
WITH THE HCCA AND GDMI FORECAST AIDS.
THE HURRICANE ALREADY APPEARS TO BE RAPIDLY WEAKENING DUE TO THE
INFLUENCE OF SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR ALONG WITH A DRIER AND MORE STABLE
AIRMASS. THE CURRENT NHC INTENSITY FORECAST IS IN THE MIDDLE OF THE
GUIDANCE ENVELOPE SHOWING TRUDY CONTINUING TO RAPIDLY WEAKEN OVER
THE NEXT DAY OR SO, FOLLOWED BY MORE GRADUAL WEAKENING. THE CURRENT
FORECAST HAS TRUDY BECOMING POST-TROPICAL IN 48 H AND THEN
DISSIPATING IN 72 H. HOWEVER, IT IS POSSIBLE THAT BOTH OF THESE
EVENTS COULD OCCUR SOONER THAN CURRENTLY PREDICTED.
KEY MESSAGES:
1. HEAVY RAINFALL FROM TRUDY IS SUBSIDING ALONG THE SOUTHWEST
MEXICAN COAST IN JALISCO, AND THE ASSOCIATED FLOOD RISK IS EXPECTED
TO DIMINISH AS WELL
2. LARGE SWELLS WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE COAST OF SOUTHWESTERN
MEXICO AND WEST-CENTRAL MEXICO DURING THE NEXT TWO TO THREE DAYS,
CAUSING LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 19/0300Z 19.7N 107.6W 70 KT 80 MPH
12H 19/1200Z 19.8N 107.9W 60 KT 70 MPH
24H 20/0000Z 19.8N 108.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 20/1200Z 19.9N 109.3W 40 KT 45 MPH
48H 21/0000Z 20.4N 109.8W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H 21/1200Z 21.1N 110.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 22/0000Z...DISSIPATED
FORECASTER KATZ/PAPIN
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