715
WTPZ41 KNHC 190833
TCDEP1
TROPICAL STORM TRUDY DISCUSSION NUMBER 24
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP212026
200 AM MST MON OCT 19 2026
SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT TRUDY BEGAN RAPIDLY WEAKENING ABOUT
12 HOURS AGO, AND DURING THESE PAST 12 HOURS, MOST OF THE DEEP
CONVECTION HAS DISSIPATED. HOWEVER, THERE ARE STILL SMALL AREAS OF
DEEP CONVECTION IN THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE OF THE TROPICAL STORM. A
19/0359 UTC ASCAT-C PASS HAD A PEAK WIND RETRIEVAL OF 45 KT, AND THE
LATEST DPRINT, DMINT AND AIDT ESTIMATES HAVE FALLEN TO THE 46-55 KT
RANGE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY WAS LOWERED TO 55 KT AT 06Z, WITH A
09Z ADVISORY INTENSITY OF 50 KT.
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS WESTWARD, OR 280/5 KT. A SLOW MOTION
BETWEEN WEST-SOUTHWEST AND WEST IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 12-24 H AS
TRUDY IS STEERED BY LOW- TO MID-LEVEL RIDGING TO ITS NORTH. ON
TUESDAY, A DEEP-LAYER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH
THE WATERS WEST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA, CAUSING TRUDY TO TURN
NORTHWESTWARD. THE LATEST NHC TRACK FORECAST HAS ONCE AGAIN BEEN
ADJUSTED TO THE SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST, AND LIES IN
BETWEEN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND THE LATEST GOOGLE DEEPMIND
ENSEMBLE MEAN.
THE DRY ENVIRONMENT HAS TAKEN ITS TOLL ON TRUDY, AND THE MID-LEVEL
AIR IS FORECAST TO BECOME EVEN DRIER WITH TIME OVER THE NEXT DAY OR
SO, ALONG WITH A CONTINUATION OF MODERATE WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. TRUDY IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO RAPIDLY
WEAKEN AND BECOME POST-TROPICAL WITHIN THE NEXT 24 H, ALTHOUGH IT
COULD BECOME POST-TROPICAL SOONER THAN FORECAST. THE NHC INTENSITY
FORECAST WAS LOWERED COMPARED TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST DUE TO THE
WEAKER INITIAL INTENSITY AND LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE. THIS FORECAST
LIES NEAR THE MIDDLE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE. TRUDY'S REMNANT LOW
IS FORECAST TO DISSIPATE BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
LARGE SWELLS WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE COAST OF SOUTHWESTERN
MEXICO AND WEST-CENTRAL MEXICO THROUGH TODAY, CAUSING
LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS AT THE BEACHES.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 19/0900Z 19.7N 108.0W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 19/1800Z 19.6N 108.4W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 20/0600Z 19.6N 109.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
36H 20/1800Z 19.8N 109.7W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 21/0600Z 20.2N 110.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H 21/1800Z 20.7N 110.6W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 22/0600Z...DISSIPATED
FORECASTER HAGEN
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