358
AXPZ20 KNHC 191534
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC MON OCT 19 2026
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
03.4S TO 30N, EAST OF 120W INCLUDING THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, AND
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N, BETWEEN 120W AND 140W. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS,
RADAR, AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1530 UTC.
..SPECIAL FEATURES
TROPICAL STORM TRUDY IS CENTERED NEAR 19.5N 108.5W AT 19/1500
UTC, MOVING WEST-SOUTHWEST AT 6 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL
PRESSURE IS 999 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 50 KT WITH
GUSTS TO 60 KT. PEAK SEAS ARE NEAR 18 FT. NUMEROUS MODERATE
CONVECTION IS WITHIN 180 NM OF THE CENTER. A GENERAL W MOTION IS
EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT, FOLLOWED BY A TURN TOWARD THE NW OF
TUESDAY. RAPID WEAKENING IS EXPECTED TODAY, AND TRUDY IS
FORECAST TO DEGENERATE TO A POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE BY TONIGHT.
SWELLS GENERATED BY TRUDY WILL CONTINUE AFFECTING PORTIONS OF THE
COAST OF SOUTHWESTERN AND WEST- CENTRAL MEXICO THROUGH TODAY.
THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE- THREATENING SURF AND RIP
CURRENT CONDITIONS. PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL
WEATHER OFFICE.
PLEASE READ THE LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT WEBSITE -
HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TEXT/MIAHSFEP2.SHTML AND THE LATEST NHC
FORECAST/ADVISORY AND PUBLIC ADVISORY AT WWW.HURRICANES.GOV FOR
MORE DETAILS ON TRUDY.
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC GALE WARNING: A 1025 MB HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM
OVER NE MEXICO CONTINUES TO SUPPORT GALE-FORCE NORTHERLY GAP
WINDS ACROSS THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC, EXTENDING DOWNSTREAM TO
11N. SEAS IN THESE WATERS ARE ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH. THESE
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO TUE NIGHT. WINDS WILL DIMINISH
BELOW GALE-FORCE BY WED, BUT REMAIN AT STRONG TO NEAR GALE-FORCE,
ALONG WITH ROUGH SEAS, THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. WINDS
MAY REACH GALE-FORCE AGAIN THU NIGHT INTO FRI.
SOUTH OF SOUTHERN MEXICO: SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, ASSOCIATED
WITH A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES SOUTH
OF GUATEMALA, REMAIN DISORGANIZED. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS
APPEAR CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT, AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION IS
EXPECTED TO FORM AROUND THE MIDDLE OF THIS WEEK AS THE SYSTEM
MOVES WESTWARD TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT AROUND 10 MPH, WELL TO
THE SOUTH OF THE COAST OF SOUTHERN MEXICO. THE CHANCE OF
FORMATION IN THE NEXT 48 HOURS IS MEDIUM AND IN THE NEXT 7 DAYS
IS HIGH.
PLEASE READ THE LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT WEBSITE
HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TEXT/MIAHSFEP2.SHTML FOR FURTHER
DETAILS.
..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 10N85W TO 06N109W. THE ITCZ
STRETCHES FROM 07N123W TO 04N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS PRESENT SOUTH OF 16N AND EAST OF
105W.
..OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO
PLEASE SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION ABOVE FOR INFORMATION ON
TROPICAL STORM TRUDY AND ON A GALE WARNING IN THE GULF OF
TEHUANTEPEC.
ELSEWHERE, HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE AREA EXTENDS WEAKLY INTO
THE OFFSHORE WATERS OF BAJA CALIFORNIA AND THE GULF OF
CALIFORNIA, SUPPORTING MODERATE OR WEAKER WINDS AND SLIGHT TO
MODERATE SEAS. HOWEVER, SEAS TO 8 FT ASSOCIATED WITH TRUDY EXTEND
INTO THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA AND SOUTH OF
CABO SAN LAZARO. IN THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN, GENTLE TO
MODERATE NW WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS PREVAIL.
FOR THE FORECAST, TROPICAL STORM TRUDY WILL MOVE TO 19.6N 108.4W
THIS AFTERNOON, BECOME POST-TROPICAL AND MOVE TO 19.6N 109.0W
TUE MORNING, WEAKEN TO A REMNANT LOW NEAR 19.8N 109.7W TUE
AFTERNOON, 20.2N 110.1W WED MORNING, 20.7N 110.6W WED AFTERNOON,
AND DISSIPATE THU MORNING. A STRONG HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER NE
MEXICO CONTINUES TO SUPPORT GALE-FORCE NORTHERLY GAP WINDS
ACROSS THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC, EXTENDING DOWNSTREAM TO 11N.
THESE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO TUE NIGHT, ALONG WITH ROUGH
TO VERY ROUGH SEAS. WINDS WILL DIMINISH BELOW GALE-FORCE BY WED,
BUT REMAIN AT STRONG TO NEAR GALE-FORCE, ALONG WITH ROUGH SEAS,
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. WINDS MAY INCREASE TO GALE-
FORCE AGAIN THU NIGHT INTO FRI. LOOKING AHEAD, SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS, ASSOCIATED WITH A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED
SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES SOUTH OF GUATEMALA, REMAIN DISORGANIZED.
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT, AND A
TROPICAL DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO FORM AROUND THE MIDDLE OF THIS
WEEK AS THE SYSTEM MOVES WESTWARD TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT
AROUND 10 MPH, WELL TO THE SOUTH OF THE COAST OF SOUTHERN MEXICO.
THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE OF TROPICAL FORMATION OF THIS LOW OVER
THE NEXT 7 DAYS.
...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
A GAP WIND EVENT IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC IS SUPPORTING
MODERATE TO FRESH NORTHERLY WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS TO 11 FT IN THE
FAR OFFSHORE WATERS OF GUATEMALA. SEAS TO 8 FT HAVE EXPANDED
INTO THE FAR OFFSHORE WATERS OF EL SALVADOR AND NICARAGUA.
OTHERWISE, GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS PREVAIL.
FOR THE FORECAST, FRESH NE WINDS WELL DOWNWIND OF THE GULF OF
TEHUANTEPEC GALES WILL DIMINISH TODAY, WHILE ROUGH SEAS WILL
PERSIST THROUGH WED. ELSEWHERE, MODERATE OR LIGHTER WINDS AND
MODERATE SEAS WILL GENERALLY PREVAIL THROUGH THE WEEK. LOOKING
AHEAD, WINDS MAY PULSE TO FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG IN THE GULF OF
PAPAGAYO STARTING MIDWEEK INTO LATE THIS WEEK.
..REMAINDER OF THE AREA
A 1032 MB HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED NEAR 35N153W EXTENDS
SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE TROPICAL EASTERN PACIFIC WATERS,
SUSTAINING MODERATE TO FRESH NE WINDS AND SEAS OF 6-8 FT WEST OF
125W AND NORTH OF THE ITCZ. GAP WINDS ORIGINATING FROM THE GULF
OF TEHUANTEPEC HAVE EXTENDED SOUTHWARD, BRINGING STRONG WINDS AND
ROUGH SEAS TO WATERS NORTH OF 06N AND BETWEEN 94W AND 100W.
LONG-PERIOD SOUTHERLY SWELL IS PRODUCING ROUGH SEAS ALONG AND
SOUTH OF THE EQUATOR. ELSEWHERE, MAINLY GENTLE WINDS AND MODERATE
SEAS PREVAIL.
FOR THE FORECAST, THE AFOREMENTIONED GAP WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO
BRING PERIODS OF STRONG N WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS TO WATERS N OF 05N
BETWEEN 92W AND 103W EARLY THIS WEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE S OF
30N TONIGHT, BRINGING FRESH TO STRONG WINDS BEHIND IT N OF 25N
THROUGH WED. A COUPLE ROUNDS OF NW SWELL, BOTH AHEAD OF AND BEHIND
THIS FRONT, WILL BRING ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS TO WATERS N OF
20N FROM MON NIGHT THROUGH THU. LOOKING AHEAD, SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS, ASSOCIATED WITH A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED
SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES SOUTH OF GUATEMALA, REMAIN DISORGANIZED.
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT, AND A
TROPICAL DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO FORM AROUND THE MIDDLE OF THIS
WEEK AS THE SYSTEM MOVES WESTWARD TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT
AROUND 10 MPH, WELL TO THE SOUTH OF THE COAST OF SOUTHERN
MEXICO. THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE OF TROPICAL FORMATION OF THIS LOW
OVER THE NEXT 7 DAYS.
KONARIK
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