000
WTPZ41 KNHC 192033
TCDEP1
TROPICAL STORM TRUDY DISCUSSION NUMBER 26
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP212026
200 PM MST MON OCT 19 2026
TRUDY'S NOCTURNAL BURST OF CONVECTION HAS WEAKENED THIS MORNING.
MICROWAVE IMAGERY FROM AROUND 1300 UTC SUGGESTS A BROAD CENTER OF
CIRCULATION IS PRESENT, WITH CONVECTION CONCENTRATED PRIMARILY TO
THE EAST AND NORTHEAST. ASCAT DATA FROM AROUND 1630 UTC ALSO
SUGGESTED MAX WINDS IN THE 30-35 KT RANGE, WITH THE STORM'S CENTER
LOCATED TO THE SOUTHEAST COMPARED TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. THE
LATEST SUBJECTIVE DVORAK INTENSITY ANALYSIS FROM TAFB ALSO REFLECTS
A WEAKENING TREND FOR THE STORM. BASED PRIMARILY ON THE ASCAT DATA,
TRUDY'S INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN LOWERED TO 35 KT.
THE TROPICAL STORM DOES NOT APPEAR TO HAVE MOVED MUCH ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY TODAY, AND ITS MOTION IS ESTIMATED TO BE STATIONARY. TRUDY'S
LACK OF MOTION IS DRIVEN PRIMARILY BY LIGHT STEERING FLOW ASSOCIATED
WITH A LOW- TO MID-LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED TO ITS NORTHEAST. IN
ADDITION, MODERATE 20 TO 30 KT WESTERLY WINDS ALOFT FORCING THE DEEP
CONVECTION TO ESSENTIALLY REMAIN IN PLACE DOWN-SHEAR OF THE CENTER.
IT'S POSSIBLE THAT EARLIER THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER TRIED TO REFORM
CLOSER TO THE DEEP CONVECTION. TRACK GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT TRUDY
WILL MOVE VERY SLOWLY, WITH MOST MODELS INDICATING A WESTWARD TO
NORTHWESTWARD MOTION UNTIL THE SYSTEM DISSIPATES. THE LATEST NHC
TRACK FORECAST FOLLOWS A BLEND OF GDMI AND HCCA GUIDANCE, WHICH
REFLECTS THIS SLOW MOTION TOWARD THE NORTHWEST.
TRUDY IS EXPECTED TO UNDERGO FURTHER WEAKENING AS IT REMAINS IN AN
ENVIRONMENT DEFINED BY INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, DRY
MID-LEVEL AIR, AND UPPER-LEVEL CONVERGENCE. WHILE THE STORM MAY
UNDERGO ONE MORE ROUND OF DIURNALLY-DRIVEN CONVECTION, SIMULATED
SATELLITE IMAGERY FROM GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST THAT TRUDY WILL BECOME
POST-TROPICAL IN 24 HOURS, BEFORE DISSIPATING AFTER ANOTHER DAY OR
SO. THE LATEST NHC INTENSITY FORECAST HASTENS TRUDY'S OVERALL
WEAKENING TREND, WHILE HOLDING STEADY DURING POSSIBLE BOUTS OF
CONVECTIVE RE-DEVELOPMENT.
LARGE SWELLS AFFECTING THE COAST OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO AND
WEST-CENTRAL MEXICO ASSOCIATED WITH TRUDY ARE DIMINISHING TODAY.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 19/2100Z 19.3N 107.9W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 20/0600Z 19.4N 108.3W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 20/1800Z 19.5N 108.9W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
36H 21/0600Z 19.8N 109.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 21/1800Z 20.2N 109.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H 22/0600Z...DISSIPATED
FORECASTER EVANS/ZELINSKY
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