916
WTPZ42 KNHC 211437
TCDEP2
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY-TWO-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP222026
900 AM CST WED OCT 21 2026
SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE DISTURBANCE LOCATED SOUTH OF
SOUTHERN MEXICO (EP94) HAS CONTINUED TO BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED THIS
MORNING. DEEP CONVECTION HAS INCREASED, AND SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BECOME MORE CONCENTRATED WITHIN CURVED BANDING
FEATURES. A SUBJECTIVE DVORAK SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATE FROM TAFB
WAS T2.0/ 30 KT. VISIBLE SATELLITE SHOWS THAT THE LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER IS NOW WELL-DEFINED, AND ADVISORIES ARE THEREFORE
BEING INITIATED ON TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY-TWO-E. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS SET AT 30 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY.
THE INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED AT 265/6 KT. A GENERALLY SLOW
FORWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED WITH A TURN TOWARDS THE NORTHWEST AND
THEN NORTH-NORTHWEST AS THE CYCLONE IS STEERED ALONG THE SOUTHERN
AND WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE LOCATED OVER MEXICO. THE
NHC TRACK FORECAST LEANS TOWARDS THE GDMI AND HCCA SOLUTIONS AND IS
ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE. THE GFS AND SOME OF
THE HURRICANE REGIONAL MODELS CONTINUE TO MOVE THE SYSTEM MORE
SOUTHWESTWARD OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS OR SO AND ARE ON THE WESTERN
PORTION OF THE TRACK SUITE.
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE HIGHLY CONDUCIVE FOR RAPID
INTENSIFICATION. THE CYCLONE IS LOCATED OVER VERY WARM WATERS IN THE
EASTERN PACIFIC WITHIN AN ENVIRONMENT OF LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR,
ABUNDANT MID-LEVEL MOISTURE, AND DIVERGENCE ALOFT. RAPID
INTENSIFICATION GUIDANCE IS ALSO WELL ABOVE CLIMATOLOGICAL MEAN,
PARTICULARLY IN THE 12-60 H PERIOD. IN FACT, THE GFS AND ECMWF SHIPS
RI PROBABILITIES FOR A 55-KT INCREASE IN 48 HOURS ARE 73 AND 83
PERCENT, RESPECTIVELY. THUS, RAPID INTENSIFICATION IS EXPLICITLY
FORECAST DURING THAT TIME. BY 72 HOURS, VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS
FORECAST TO INCREASE, AND MID-LEVEL DRY AIR COULD BEGIN TO ENTRAIN
INTO THE CIRCULATION. AS A RESULT, A WEAKENING TREND IS SHOWN LATER
IN THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE OFFICIAL NHC INTENSITY FORECAST IS NEAR
THE UPPER END OF THE GUIDANCE, ALTHOUGH THE GOOGLE DEEPMIND DOES
SHOW A HIGHER PEAK INTENSITY.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 21/1500Z 9.5N 99.3W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 22/0000Z 9.4N 100.1W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 22/1200Z 9.7N 101.1W 55 KT 65 MPH
36H 23/0000Z 10.2N 102.0W 70 KT 80 MPH
48H 23/1200Z 10.7N 102.6W 85 KT 100 MPH
60H 24/0000Z 11.5N 103.2W 100 KT 115 MPH
72H 24/1200Z 12.5N 103.6W 95 KT 110 MPH
96H 25/1200Z 14.2N 104.4W 90 KT 105 MPH
120H 26/1200Z 15.4N 105.2W 85 KT 100 MPH
FORECASTER KELLY
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page