691
WTPZ42 KNHC 212033
TCDEP2
TROPICAL STORM VANCE DISCUSSION NUMBER 2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP222026
300 PM CST WED OCT 21 2026
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT THE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO PRODUCE DEEP
CONVECTION IN IMPROVED BANDING FEATURES, AS DEPICTED IN RECENT
MICROWAVE IMAGES. AN EARLIER SCATTEROMETER PASS SHORTLY AFTER THE
PREVIOUS ADVISORY SHOWED THAT THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER WAS SLIGHTLY
FARTHER SOUTH AND HAD A PEAK WIND OF 27 KT. THE LATEST SATELLITE
INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM UW-CIMSS AND TAFB ARE 32-35 KT, AND USING
THESE ESTIMATES, THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS RAISED TO 35 KT FOR THIS
ADVISORY, MAKING THE SYSTEM TROPICAL STORM VANCE.
THE INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED AT 265/6 KT. A GENERALLY SLOW
FORWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED WITH A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST AND THEN
NORTH-NORTHWEST AS THE CYCLONE IS STEERED ALONG THE SOUTHERN AND
WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE LOCATED OVER MEXICO. THERE
CONTINUES TO BE SOME DISAGREEMENT IN THE SHORT TERM OVER WHEN THE
TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST WILL OCCUR THE GFS AND HURRICANE REGIONAL
MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A SOUTHWEST MOTION, WHILE THE HCCA AND GDMI
SHOW THE SYSTEM SLOWING AND TURNING SOONER. THE LATEST NHC TRACK
FORECAST IS CLOSEST TO THE HCCA AND GDMI, THE BEST-PERFORMING MODELS
THIS SEASON, AND WAS SHIFTED SLIGHTLY TO THE RIGHT COMPARED TO THE
PREVIOUS ONE.
VANCE IS WITHIN A CONDUCIVE ENVIRONMENT FOR STEADY TO RAPID
INTENSIFICATION (RI), WITH WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES NEAR
29-30C, LOW WIND SHEAR, AND FAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL DIVERGENCE. RI
SHIPS AND DTOPS GUIDANCE REMAINS VERY BULLISH, SHOWING RI OVER THE
NEXT 12-60 HOURS. THE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST FOLLOWS SUIT AND THE
PEAK INTENSITY WAS INCREASED SLIGHTLY FROM THE PREVIOUS ONE,
ALTHOUGH IT REMAINS SLIGHTLY BELOW THE GDMI AND HCCA AIDS. IN 72
HOURS, WIND SHEAR IS FORECAST TO INCREASE AND THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE
INTO A SLIGHTLY DRIER MID-LEVEL AIR MASS. THUS, A WEAKENING TREND IS
SHOWN AT THAT TIME.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 21/2100Z 9.4N 99.8W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 22/0600Z 9.5N 100.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 22/1800Z 9.8N 101.3W 60 KT 70 MPH
36H 23/0600Z 10.4N 102.1W 80 KT 90 MPH
48H 23/1800Z 11.2N 102.7W 95 KT 110 MPH
60H 24/0600Z 11.9N 103.1W 105 KT 120 MPH
72H 24/1800Z 12.8N 103.5W 100 KT 115 MPH
96H 25/1800Z 14.5N 104.3W 90 KT 105 MPH
120H 26/1800Z 15.8N 105.2W 85 KT 100 MPH
FORECASTER KELLY
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