131
WTNT45 KNHC 220256
TCDAT5
SUBTROPICAL STORM JOSEPHINE DISCUSSION NUMBER 2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102026
1100 PM AST WED OCT 21 2026
CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH JOSEPHINE HAS WANED THIS EVENING. THE
LATEST SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW SHALLOW TO MODERATE CONVECTION IN BANDS
OVER THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CIRCULATION. DESPITE
ITS DEGRADED SATELLITE STRUCTURE, PARTIAL SCATTEROMETER DATA SHOW
JOSEPHINE IS STILL A POWERFUL STORM WITH A LARGE RADIUS OF MAXIMUM
WIND AND AN ASYMMETRIC WIND FIELD. A BAND OF 45-50 KT WINDS WRAPS
AROUND THE NORTHWEST SIDE OF THE SYSTEM. SINCE THE ENTIRE WIND FIELD
WAS NOT SAMPLED, THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS HELD AT A POSSIBLY
GENEROUS 55 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY.
RECENT SATELLITE FIXES INDICATE JOSEPHINE IS NOW MOVING SLOWLY
NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD (015/5 KT). THE STORM IS EXPECTED TO ACCELERATE
TO THE NORTHEAST AND EAST-NORTHEAST TOMORROW AS AN UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGH AMPLIFIES OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES AND THE NORTHEASTERN
UNITED STATES. THEN, THE LOW SHOULD BECOME CAUGHT IN MID-LATITUDE
WESTERLIES AND MOVE EASTWARD ON FRIDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND, WITH
THE CENTER PASSING TO THE SOUTH OF NEWFOUNDLAND LATE FRIDAY AND
FRIDAY NIGHT. THE TRACK MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS TIGHTLY CLUSTERED,
AND THE NHC FORECAST IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE, GENERALLY
FALLING BETWEEN THE CORRECTED CONSENSUS (HCCA) AND A SIMPLE AVERAGE
OF THE GFS/ECMWF MODELS (GFEX).
JOSEPHINE IS UNLIKELY TO REMAIN SUBTROPICAL FOR LONG SINCE THE STORM
WILL ENCOUNTER MUCH COOLER WATERS AND STRONGER SHEAR OVER THE NEXT
12-24 HOURS. HOWEVER, THE GLOBAL MODELS FAVOR SOME NEAR-TERM
STRENGTHENING DRIVEN MOSTLY BY BAROCLINIC PROCESSES AND POSITIVE
INTERACTION WITH THE APPROACHING TROUGH. THIS FORECAST SHOWS
JOSEPHINE BECOMING A HURRICANE-FORCE, EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE IN 24 H,
THOUGH IT COULD LOSE SUBTROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS EVEN SOONER.
GRADUAL WEAKENING IS PREDICTED BEGINNING ON FRIDAY, AND THE UPDATED
FORECAST SHOWS JOSEPHINE BECOMING ABSORBED BY 96 H WITHIN A LARGER,
EXTRATROPICAL LOW OVER THE NORTH ATLANTIC. GIVEN THE SUBTROPICAL
NATURE OF THIS STORM, THE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST CONTINUES TO FAVOR
A BLEND OF THE GFS AND ECMWF MODELS.
SINCE THE COASTAL WIND HAZARDS WITH THIS SYSTEM HAVE BEEN COVERED
FOR THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS THROUGH NON-TROPICAL PRODUCTS ISSUED BY
LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICES, THESE PRODUCTS WILL REMAIN
IN EFFECT UNTIL THE THREAT DIMINISHES AND THE SYSTEM MOVES FARTHER
AWAY FROM THE U.S. COAST.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 22/0300Z 37.7N 69.4W 55 KT 65 MPH...SUBTROPICAL
12H 22/1200Z 38.8N 67.9W 60 KT 70 MPH...SUBTROPICAL
24H 23/0000Z 40.3N 64.4W 65 KT 75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
36H 23/1200Z 42.2N 59.6W 65 KT 75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
48H 24/0000Z 43.5N 55.7W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
60H 24/1200Z 44.1N 52.8W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H 25/0000Z 44.1N 48.1W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 26/0000Z...DISSIPATED
FORECASTER REINHART
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