779
WTPZ42 KNHC 220258
TCDEP2
TROPICAL STORM VANCE DISCUSSION NUMBER 3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP222026
900 PM CST WED OCT 21 2026
SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT VANCE CONTINUES TO BECOME BETTER
ORGANIZED, WITH AN EXPANDING AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE
CIRCULATION AND CLOUD-TOP TEMPERATURES AS COLD AS -80 DEGREES
C. THE LATEST SUBJECTIVE INTENSITY ESTIMATE FROM TAFB IS
T2.5/35 KT, WHILE OBJECTIVE ESTIMATES FROM UW-CIMSS RANGE FROM 32 TO
43 KT. BASED ON THESE ESTIMATES AND THE IMPROVING SATELLITE
PRESENTATION, THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN INCREASED TO 40 KT.
THE INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED AT 290/4 KT. THE STORM WILL BEGIN TO
SLOW DOWN AS IT TURNS NORTHWEST AND THEN NORTH-NORTHWEST, STEERED
ALONG THE SOUTHERN AND WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE
LOCATED OVER MEXICO. THE LATEST NHC TRACK FORECAST IS VERY SIMILAR
TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY, WITH A SLIGHT EASTWARD ADJUSTMENT AT DAYS
4 AND 5 TOWARD THE LATEST GDMI, HCCA, AND TVCN CONSENSUS AIDS.
HOWEVER, CONSIDERABLE CROSS-TRACK SPREAD REMAINS AMONG THE GUIDANCE
SOLUTIONS AT LONGER FORECAST RANGES, LIKELY RELATED TO DIFFERENCES
IN HOW THE MODELS DEPICT THE EVOLVING SYNOPTIC PATTERN NEAR THE
WESTERN UNITED STATES. CONSEQUENTLY, CONFIDENCE IN THE EXTENDED
PORTION OF THE TRACK FORECAST REMAINS LOWER THAN NORMAL.
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR VERY FAVORABLE FOR SIGNIFICANT
STRENGTHENING DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS, WITH WARM SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES, LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND PLENTY OF DEEP-LAYER
MOISTURE. SHIPS RII, DTOPS, AND SDCON GUIDANCE CONTINUE TO BE
SUPPORTIVE, SUGGESTING OVER A 50 PERCENT PROBABILITY OF EXTREME RI
OVER THE NEXT 3 DAYS, INDICATING A HIGH-CONFIDENCE SCENARIO FOR A
MAJOR HURRICANE TO DEVELOP. GIVEN THE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT AND
ELEVATED RAPID INTENSIFICATION PROBABILITIES, THE UPDATED NHC
INTENSITY FORECAST EXPLICITLY CALLS FOR RAPID INTENSIFICATION DURING
THE NEXT 2 TO 3 DAYS. BY DAY 4, VANCE WILL BEGIN TO EXPERIENCE
INCREASED VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WHILE MOVING INTO SLIGHTLY DRIER
MID-LEVEL AIR, SUGGESTING A WEAKENING TREND THEREAFTER.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 22/0300Z 9.6N 100.7W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 22/1200Z 9.8N 101.2W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 23/0000Z 10.4N 102.1W 70 KT 80 MPH
36H 23/1200Z 10.9N 102.9W 80 KT 90 MPH
48H 24/0000Z 11.5N 103.5W 95 KT 110 MPH
60H 24/1200Z 12.3N 103.9W 105 KT 120 MPH
72H 25/0000Z 13.5N 104.1W 100 KT 115 MPH
96H 26/0000Z 15.4N 105.0W 90 KT 105 MPH
120H 27/0000Z 16.7N 105.4W 85 KT 100 MPH
FORECASTER PIERCE/GIBBS
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