264
WTPZ32 KNHC 220847
TCPEP2
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM VANCE ADVISORY NUMBER 4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP222026
300 AM CST THU OCT 22 2026
..VANCE STRENGTHENING AS IT MOVES WESTWARD
SUMMARY OF 300 AM CST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
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LOCATION...9.7N 101.5W
ABOUT 510 MI...820 KM SSW OF ACAPULCO MEXICO
ABOUT 670 MI...1075 KM SSE OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 300 AM CST (0900 UTC), THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM VANCE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 9.7 NORTH, LONGITUDE 101.5 WEST. VANCE IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 7 MPH (11 KM/H). A TURN TO THE
NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH (85 KM/H) WITH HIGHER GUSTS.
RAPID INTENSIFICATION IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS,
AND THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE BY SATURDAY.
TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 80 MILES (130 KM)
FROM THE CENTER.
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1000 MB (29.53 INCHES).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF: SWELLS GENERATED BY VANCE ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN AFFECTING
PORTIONS OF THE COAST OF SOUTHERN AND SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO THIS
WEEKEND AND CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEK. THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO
CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. PLEASE
CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
NEXT ADVISORY
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NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 900 AM CST.
FORECASTER EVANS/GIBBS
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