303
WTPZ42 KNHC 221448
TCDEP2
TROPICAL STORM VANCE DISCUSSION NUMBER 5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP222026
900 AM CST THU OCT 22 2026
SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT VANCE IS BECOMING BETTER
ORGANIZED. A CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST HAS FORMED NEAR THE CENTER,
WITH APPARENTLY A LOW-LEVEL CENTER RE-FORMATION TO THE EAST
BASED ON THE LATEST MICROWAVE DATA. OBJECTIVE AND SUBJECTIVE
DVORAK ESTIMATES ARE RISING, AND THE LATEST ESTIMATES ARE BETWEEN
44-53 KT. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET TO 50 KT AS A BLEND OF THE
DATA.
WITH THE CENTER RE-FORMATION, THE INITIAL MOTION IS UNCERTAIN BUT
IS ESTIMATED TO BE NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 3 KT. THERE HAS BEEN A
SUBSTANTIAL CHANGE IN THE GUIDANCE OVERNIGHT, WITH THE MODELS
SHOWING A MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER MEXICO WEAKENING FASTER THAN
YESTERDAY. THIS PATTERN WOULD ALLOW THE STORM TO MOVE MORE TO THE
NORTHWEST OR NORTH-NORTHWEST DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THE NEW
FORECAST IS SHIFTED WELL TO THE NORTHEAST, NEAR A BLEND OF THE
LATEST GFS/ECMWF MODELS. I WILL NOTE THAT THE GOOGLE DEEPMIND AND
HCCA AIDS ARE OVER A DEGREE EAST OF MY NEW FORECAST BY 96H, BUT
CONTINUITY PRECLUDES A LARGER CHANGE AT THIS TIME.
THE ENVIRONMENT APPEARS GENERALLY CONDUCIVE FOR STEADY-TO-RAPID
INTENSIFICATION DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS, WITH LOW SHEAR, WARM
WATERS AND PLENTY OF MID-LEVEL MOISTURE. THE FORECAST IS ABOUT THE
SAME AS THE LAST ONE THROUGH 48 HOURS. HOWEVER, THE NEW EASTWARD
TRACK SHIFT WOULD BRING VANCE OVER THE COLD WAKE LEFT BY THE GAGGLE
OF EASTERN PACIFIC HURRICANES SOUTH OF MEXICO DURING THE PAST FEW
WEEKS, WHICH COULD LIMIT STRENGTHENING BEYOND 2 DAYS. ADDITIONALLY,
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE EARLY NEXT WEEK.
THUS, THE TIMING OF THE PEAK INTENSITY HAS BEEN ADJUSTED TO
SATURDAY, AND THE LONG-RANGE INTENSITIES HAVE BEEN REDUCED. IF
FARTHER EAST TRACK SHIFTS ARE REQUIRED, THE INTENSITY FORECAST
WOULD LIKELY HAVE TO BE REDUCED AS WELL FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK SINCE
IT WOULD MORE SQUARELY MORE OVER THE COLD WAKES LEFT BEHIND THE
EARLIER HURRICANES.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 22/1500Z 9.7N 101.0W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 23/0000Z 10.1N 101.5W 65 KT 75 MPH
24H 23/1200Z 10.7N 102.1W 80 KT 90 MPH
36H 24/0000Z 11.5N 102.7W 95 KT 110 MPH
48H 24/1200Z 12.3N 103.2W 105 KT 120 MPH
60H 25/0000Z 13.4N 103.6W 100 KT 115 MPH
72H 25/1200Z 14.4N 103.9W 95 KT 110 MPH
96H 26/1200Z 16.0N 104.4W 90 KT 105 MPH
120H 27/1200Z 17.0N 104.7W 85 KT 100 MPH
FORECASTER BLAKE
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