571
WTPZ42 KNHC 222037
TCDEP2
TROPICAL STORM VANCE DISCUSSION NUMBER 6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP222026
300 PM CST THU OCT 22 2026
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT VANCE CONTINUES TO BECOME BETTER
ORGANIZED AND IS STRENGTHENING. THE STORM HAS NUMEROUS CONVECTIVE
BANDS, ESPECIALLY OVER ITS SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE, AND A SMALL
DEVELOPING CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST. UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW IS BECOMING
WELL DEFINED OVER ALL QUADRANTS OF THE CIRCULATION. THE ADVISORY
INTENSITY IS SET AT 55 KT IN AGREEMENT WITH A SUBJECTIVE DVORAK
CLASSIFICATION FROM TAFB. THIS IS ALSO CLOSE TO A BLEND OF THE
VARIOUS OBJECTIVE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM UW-CIMSS.
THE CENTER APPEARS TO BE MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD WITH A MOTION
ESTIMATE OF 300/4 KT. VANCE IS CURRENTLY SOUTH OF A MID-LEVEL HIGH
PRESSURE AREA OVER WESTERN MEXICO. OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS, THIS
RIDGE IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN AS A TROUGH MOVES INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN
UNITED STATES. AS A RESULT THE TROPICAL CYCLONE SHOULD TURN TOWARD
THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH-NORTHWEST OVER THE NEXT 72 HOURS. LATE IN
THE FORECAST PERIOD, THE TROUGH MOVES EASTWARD AND LEAVES VANCE IN
A REGION OF WEAK STEERING CURRENTS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS
NUDGED A LITTLE EAST OF THE PREVIOUS ONE AND IS GENERALLY A BLEND
OF THE GOOGLE DEEPMIND ENSEMBLE AND THE NOAA CORRECTED CONSENSUS,
HCCA, SOLUTION.
VANCE IS IN AN ENVIRONMENT THAT IS GENERALLY CONDUCTIVE FOR
SIGNIFICANT INTENSIFICATION DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS, WITH LOW
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, HIGH OCEANIC HEAT CONTENT AND PLENTY OF
MID-LEVEL MOISTURE. THE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST REMAINS ABOUT THE
SAME AS IN PREVIOUS ADVISORIES AND NEAR THE HIGH END OF THE MODEL
GUIDANCE SUITE. HOWEVER IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THE TRACK OF THE
CYCLONE COULD EVENTUALLY TAKE IT OVER WATERS THAT HAVE BEEN COOLED
BY THE PASSAGE OF RECENT TROPICAL CYCLONES. THIS, ALONG WITH SOME
INCREASE IN VERTICAL SHEAR LATER IN THE FORECAST PERIOD, COULD
LIMIT STRENGTHENING. SO, THERE IS A FAIR AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY IN
THE FUTURE INTENSITY OF VANCE.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 22/2100Z 10.0N 101.5W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 23/0600Z 10.3N 101.9W 70 KT 80 MPH
24H 23/1800Z 10.9N 102.4W 90 KT 105 MPH
36H 24/0600Z 11.6N 102.7W 100 KT 115 MPH
48H 24/1800Z 12.6N 103.1W 105 KT 120 MPH
60H 25/0600Z 13.8N 103.4W 100 KT 115 MPH
72H 25/1800Z 15.0N 103.7W 90 KT 105 MPH
96H 26/1800Z 16.1N 104.2W 90 KT 105 MPH
120H 27/1800Z 17.0N 104.5W 85 KT 100 MPH
FORECASTER PASCH
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