973
WTPZ42 KNHC 231443
TCDEP2
HURRICANE VANCE DISCUSSION NUMBER 9
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP222026
900 AM CST FRI OCT 23 2026
SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT VANCE CONTINUES TO GET BETTER
ORGANIZED THIS MORNING. THE HURRICANE HAS A WELL-DEFINED CENTRAL
DENSE OVERCAST WITH OCCASIONAL HINTS OF AN EYE TRYING TO FORM AND
EYEWALL CLOUD TOPS POKING UP THROUGH THE OVERCAST. THE HURRICANE
ALSO HAS A LARGE COMPLEX OF OUTER BANDS IN THE NORTHEASTERN
SEMICIRCLE. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE IN THE 70-79 KT
RANGE, AND THEY HAVE TRENDED UPWARD SLIGHTLY SINCE THE LAST
ADVISORY. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET AT 80 KT.
VANCE IS CURRENTLY UNDERGOING STEADY TO RAPID STRENGTHENING AND A
VERY FAVORABLE ATMOSPHERIC ENVIRONMENT. HOWEVER, THERE ARE TWO
ISSUES THAT SERIOUSLY COMPLICATE THE INTENSITY FORECAST. FIRST, THE
PREVIOUS TROPICAL CYCLONES THAT HAVE MOVED THROUGH THE AREA NEAR
VANCE'S FORECAST TRACK HAVE CAUSED A SIGNIFICANT DECREASE IN BOTH
OCEANIC HEAT CONTENT AND SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES NORTH OF WHERE
THE CENTER IS NOW. INDEED, SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AT A DRIFTING
BUOY ABOUT 25 N MI FROM THE CENTER OF VANCE HAVE FALLEN BELOW 28C
JUST DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS. THIS COLD POOL IS LIKELY TO HALT
INTENSIFICATION, AND IT MAY TAKE VANCE A COUPLE OF DAYS TO GET PAST
IT. SECOND, SOUTHWESTERLY AND WESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS
FORECAST TO INCREASE BY 24 H, AND IN COMBINATION WITH THE COLDER
WATER COULD CAUSE THE CYCLONE TO WEAKEN. THE NEW INTENSITY FORECAST
FOLLOWS THE SCENARIO SHOWN BY THE HAFS MODELS, WHICH SHOWS
WEAKENING WHILE THE CYCLONE IS OVER THE COLDER WATER FOLLOWED BY
MODEST RE-INTENSIFICATION. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT A TRACK TO THE
RIGHT OF THE FORECAST TRACK WILL KEEP THE CENTER OVER THE COLDER
WATER FOR A LONGER TIME, WHILE A TRACK TO THE LEFT WOULD REDUCE HOW
MUCH TIME THE CENTER SPENDS OVER THE COLD POOL. IF IT IS NOT
ALREADY APPARENT, THIS INTENSITY FORECAST IS LOW CONFIDENCE.
THE CENTER HAS REFORMED OR JOGGED TO THE WEST DURING THE PAST FEW
HOURS, AND THE INITIAL MOTION IS A SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN 325/4 KT.
VANCE IS CURRENTLY BEING STEERED BY A WEAK MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER
EASTERN MEXICO AND THE EASTERN PACIFIC, AND LATER IN THE FORECAST
PERIOD IT WILL COME UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A LARGE MID- TO
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES AS WELL AS THE
ADJACENT PORTIONS OF NORTHERN MEXICO AND THE NORTHEASTERN PACIFIC.
WHILE THE DYNAMICAL MODELS AGREE ON THE GENERAL SYNOPTIC PATTERN,
THE TRACK FORECAST IS COMPLICATED BY THE POSSIBILITIES OF HOW
STRONG AND VERTICALLY STACKED VANCE WILL BE. A STRONGER AND MORE
VERTICALLY STACKED VANCE, ESPECIALLY AS DEPICTED IN THE GFS, WILL
LIKELY MOVE SLOWLY TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST AND NORTH DURING THE
FORECAST PERIOD. ON THE OTHER HAND, THE UKMET AND CANADIAN FORECAST
VANCE TO BE WEAKER AND SHEAR APART, WITH THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER BEING
STEERED MORE TO THE NORTHWEST BEFORE EVENTUALLY TURNING NORTHWARD.
THE TRACK FORECAST FOLLOWS THE SCENARIO THAT VANCE WILL STAY
VERTICALLY COUPLED, AND THE NEW FORECAST TRACK IS SIMILAR TO THE
PREVIOUS TRACK. HOWEVER, IT LIES TO THE LEFT OF THE GOOGLE DEEPMIND
ENSEMBLE MEAN, THE HFIP CORRECTED CONSENSUS, AND THE FLORIDA STATE
SUPERENSEMBLE.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 23/1500Z 10.7N 102.1W 80 KT 90 MPH
12H 24/0000Z 11.3N 102.5W 95 KT 110 MPH
24H 24/1200Z 12.3N 102.9W 100 KT 115 MPH
36H 25/0000Z 13.3N 103.3W 95 KT 110 MPH
48H 25/1200Z 14.4N 103.6W 90 KT 105 MPH
60H 26/0000Z 15.3N 103.9W 85 KT 100 MPH
72H 26/1200Z 15.9N 104.2W 90 KT 105 MPH
96H 27/1200Z 16.6N 104.4W 90 KT 105 MPH
120H 28/1200Z 17.5N 104.5W 75 KT 85 MPH
FORECASTER BEVEN
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