994
WTPZ42 KNHC 232040
TCDEP2
HURRICANE VANCE DISCUSSION NUMBER 10
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP222026
300 PM CST FRI OCT 23 2026
VANCE HAS BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED SINCE THE LAST ADVISORY WITH THE
FORMATION OF A WELL-DEFINED EYE INSIDE THE CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST.
SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES HAVE INCREASED TO THE 83-104 KT
RANGE, AND BASED ON THESE DATA THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS INCREASED
TO 90 KT. ALTHOUGH THE CENTRAL FEATURES OF THE HURRICANE ARE BETTER
DEFINED, THE OUTER BANDING SEEN EARLIER HAS BECOME FRAGMENTED, AND
ARC CLOUDS THAT SUGGEST THE PRESENCE OF DRY AIR ARE SEEN SOUTHWEST
OF THE CDO.
THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS A LOW CONFIDENCE ROLLER COASTER RIDE. THE
EYE OF VANCE IS MOVING OVER A POOL OF WATER FEATURING BOTH COLDER
SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (NEAR 27C) AND REDUCED OCEANIC HEAT
CONTENT. THIS SHOULD SOON BRING THE CURRENT INTENSIFICATION TO A
HALT, ALTHOUGH THE INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR VANCE TO BECOME A
MAJOR HURRICANE BEFORE THAT HAPPENS. THE CENTER WILL BE NEAR OR OVER
THE COLD POOL THROUGH 48 H, AND DURING THIS TIME SOUTHWESTERLY
VERTICAL SHEAR SHOULD INCREASE OVER THE HURRICANE. THIS COMBINATION
SHOULD CAUSE WEAKENING, AND IT IS POSSIBLE THAT VANCE COULD WEAKEN
MORE THAN FORECAST DURING THIS PERIOD. AFTER 48 H, VANCE SHOULD
MOVE NORTH OF THE COLD POOL, AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST AT THAT TIME
CALLS FOR SOME RE-INTENSIFICATION, FOLLOWING THE SCENARIO SHOWN BY
THE HAFS MODELS. BY 96-120 H, AN ADDITIONAL INCREASE IN SHEAR AND
POSSIBLE LAND INTERACTION SHOULD CAUSE THE HURRICANE TO WEAKEN YET
AGAIN. AS NOTED IN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY, A TRACK TO THE RIGHT OF
THE FORECAST TRACK WILL KEEP THE CENTER OVER THE COLDER WATER FOR A
LONGER TIME, WHILE A TRACK TO THE LEFT WOULD REDUCE HOW MUCH TIME
THE CENTER SPENDS OVER THE COLD POOL.
AFTER THE WESTWARD JOG SEEN EARLIER TODAY, VANCE HAS RESUMED A
NORTHWESTWARD MOTION OF 325/4 KT. THE HURRICANE IS CURRENTLY BEING
STEERED BY A WEAK MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER EASTERN MEXICO AND THE
EASTERN PACIFIC, AND LATER IN THE FORECAST PERIOD IT WILL COME UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF A LARGE MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN
UNITED STATES AS WELL AS THE ADJACENT PORTIONS OF NORTHERN MEXICO
AND THE NORTHEASTERN PACIFIC. WHILE THE DYNAMICAL MODELS AGREE ON
THE GENERAL SYNOPTIC PATTERN, THE TRACK FORECAST IS COMPLICATED BY
THE POSSIBILITIES OF HOW STRONG AND VERTICALLY STACKED VANCE WILL
BE. A STRONGER AND MORE VERTICALLY STACKED STORM, ESPECIALLY AS
DEPICTED IN THE GFS, WILL LIKELY MOVE SLOWLY TOWARD THE
NORTH-NORTHWEST AND NORTH DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD. ON THE OTHER
HAND, THE UKMET AND CANADIAN MODELS FORECAST VANCE TO BE WEAKER AND
SHEAR APART VERTICALLY, WITH THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER BEING STEERED MORE
TO THE NORTHWEST BEFORE EVENTUALLY TURNING NORTHWARD. WHILE THE
CURRENT STRUCTURE MAKES SUCH A SHEARING APART UNLIKELY IN THE SHORT
TERM, IT IS POSSIBLE THAT VANCE COULD SHEAR APART BETWEEN 24-48 H IF
IT WEAKENS MORE THAN FORECAST, AND AT THAT POINT IT COULD TURN MORE
NORTHWESTWARD. THE FORECAST TRACK LEANS TOWARD VANCE STAYING
VERTICALLY COUPLED, AND IT IS IN THE BEST OVERALL AGREEMENT WITH THE
GOOGLE DEEPMIND ENSEMBLE MEAN, THE HFIP CORRECTED CONSENSUS, AND THE
FLORIDA STATE SUPERENSEMBLE.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 23/2100Z 11.2N 102.3W 90 KT 105 MPH
12H 24/0600Z 11.9N 102.6W 105 KT 120 MPH
24H 24/1800Z 12.9N 103.0W 100 KT 115 MPH
36H 25/0600Z 13.9N 103.3W 90 KT 105 MPH
48H 25/1800Z 14.9N 103.6W 85 KT 100 MPH
60H 26/0600Z 15.7N 103.9W 90 KT 105 MPH
72H 26/1800Z 16.1N 104.1W 95 KT 110 MPH
96H 27/1800Z 16.8N 104.2W 85 KT 100 MPH
120H 28/1800Z 17.8N 104.4W 70 KT 80 MPH
FORECASTER BEVEN
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