126
FXUS63 KOAX 180457
AFDOAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1157 PM CDT SUN MAY 17 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- POTENTIAL FOR MORE SEVERE WEATHER ON MONDAY, MAINLY ACROSS
SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA AND SOUTHWEST IOWA. LARGE HAIL, DAMAGING
WINDS, STRONG TORNADOES, AND FLASH FLOODING WILL ALL BE
POSSIBLE.
- COOLER WEATHER MOVES IN ON TUESDAY WITH POTENTIAL FOR MORNING
FROST FOR NORTHEAST NEBRASKA ON WEDNESDAY.
- ANOTHER ACTIVE PATTERN MAY SET UP GOING INTO NEXT WEEKEND WITH
CHANCES FOR MORE STORMS, AND POSSIBLY SEVERE WEATHER.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1155 PM CDT SUN MAY 17 2026
THE LINE OF STORMS HAS CLEARED EAST OF THE AREA BUT MUCH OF
SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA AND SOUTHWEST IOWA REMAIN UNDER THE
STRATIFORM RAIN SHIELD WITH SOME EMBEDDED WEAK THUNDERSTORMS.
THIS LIKELY WON'T COMPLETELY CLEAR UNTIL CLOSER TO 7AM MONDAY
MORNING. GOING INTO MONDAY WE'RE GOING TO BE WATCHING TO SEE
WHERE THE COLD FRONT STALLS, WHICH WILL HELP DETERMINE OUR AREA
OF POTENTIAL SEVERE WEATHER MONDAY EVENING.
MONDAY WILL START OUT CLOUDY, WITH SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA NORTH AND WEST OF THE COLD FRONT
STALLED ACROSS OUR AREA. THROUGH THE LATE MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON WE'LL SEE CLOUDS GRADUALLY CLEAR IN AREAS SOUTH AND
EAST OF THE COLD FRONT. AREAS NORTH OF THE COLD FRONT WILL STAY
CLOUDY. THE UPPER-LEVEL SHORTWAVE ARRIVES, KICKING OFF STORM
INITIATION AROUND 2-4PM. STORMS THAT DEVELOP IN THE WARM SECTOR
WILL HAVE AMPLE INSTABILITY AND SHEAR TO GROW INTO DISCRETE
SUPERCELLS WITH POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL, DAMAGING WINDS, AND
STRONG TORNADOES. EXPECT SIMILAR STORM EVOLUTION, GROWING INTO A
QLCS WITH EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS, WHICH EXITS OUR AREA BY 10PM.
SEVERAL CAMS SHOW A SECOND LINE OF STORMS WHICH DEVELOPS AROUND
8-9PM OVER OUR WESTERN COUNTIES AND MOVES THROUGH POTENTIALLY
BRINGING ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SEVERE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.
THESE STORMS WILL BE ELEVATED IN NATURE, BUT MAY STILL HAVE 1500
J/KG OF ELEVATED MUCAPE TO WORK WITH. THIS SECOND LINE CLEARS BY
MIDNIGHT, BRINGING AN END TO THE LONG, SEVERAL DAY STRETCH OF
SEVERE WEATHER.
WE'LL SEE THE COLD FRONT CLEAR WELL TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF OUR
AREA BY TUESDAY, PUTTING A COOLER CANADIAN AIR MASS IN PLACE
ACROSS THE REGION. TUESDAY WILL START OUT CLOUDY ONCE AGAIN, BUT
REALLY CLEAR BY THE AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER OUR
AREA. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY WILL ONLY REACH INTO THE
UPPER 50S TO MID 60S. WITH CLEAR SKIES AND NEARLY CALM WINDS,
THIS LENDS TO POTENTIAL FOR FROST EARLY WEDNESDAY. OVERNIGHT
LOWS WILL DROP INTO THE MID 30S FOR NORTHEAST NEBRASKA TO LOW
40S ACROSS SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA AND SOUTHWEST IOWA. COOLER WEATHER
HOLDS INTO WEDNESDAY THOUGH WE DO SEE A REVERSAL TO SOUTHERLY
WINDS AND START TO ADVECT MOISTURE BACK INTO THE REGION. AN
UPPER-LEVEL SHORTWAVE COULD POTENTIALLY BRING A FEW SHOWERS TO
THE AREA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING, BUT THE ENSEMBLES
HAVEN'T PICKED UP ON THIS LATEST CHANGE IN THE DETERMINISTIC
GUIDANCE. IN ANY CASE, THIS WOULDN'T BE ANYTHING IMPACTFUL.
A BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS MOVES IN THURSDAY AS THE
LONGWAVE TROUGH THAT'S BEEN NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE WESTERN
US SHIFTS EASTWARD TOWARD OUR AREA. WITH TEMPERATURES STILL IN
THE SIXTIES FOR HIGHS, I WOULDN'T ANTICIPATE MUCH OF A SEVERE
WEATHER THREAT WITH THIS SYSTEM FOR OUR AREA.
TEMPERATURES START TO REBOUND ON FRIDAY THOUGH AS WE SEE
ENHANCED WARM AIR ADVECTION AHEAD OF A DEEPENING SURFACE LOW
WHICH DEVELOPS ON THE LEE SIDE OF THE ROCKIES OVER EASTERN
COLORADO AND WESTERN NEBRASKA. DEPENDING ON THE TRACK OF THIS
SYSTEM, WE COULD POTENTIALLY SEE MORE ACTIVE WEATHER NEXT
WEEKEND WITH SEVERAL CHANCES FOR STORMS.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1156 PM CDT SUN MAY 17 2026
A LINE OF STORMS CONTINUES TO EXIT THE REGION TO THE EAST LATE
THIS EVENING. NORTH WINDS AND LOW CEILINGS HAVE OVERSPREAD THE
REGION BEHIND THESE STORMS. OFK AND LNK HAVE FALLEN TO MVFR WITH
OMA EXPECTED TO FALL OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO. WINDS REMAIN
OUT OF THE NORTH TONIGHT. A FURTHER REDUCTION TO IFR CEILINGS
APPEARS LIKELY AT OFK AROUND 9Z AND AT OMA AND LNK CLOSER TO
13Z. OUR NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL QUICKLY LIFT NORTHEAST
OUT OF THE SOUTHERN GREAT PLAINS DURING THE AFTERNOON. THIS IS
ANTICIPATED TO RESULT IN ANOTHER ROUND OF WIDESPREAD
THUNDERSTORMS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE ANTICIPATED WITH LARGE
HAIL, DAMAGING WINDS, AND A FEW TORNADOES POSSIBLE. CURRENT
TIMING HAS STORMS IN THE VICINITY OF LNK BETWEEN 21-23Z WITH OFK
AND OMA FOLLOWING SHORTLY AFTER BETWEEN APPROXIMATELY 22Z AND
00Z. VERY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL REDUCE VISIBILITY AT TIMES WITH
THE POTENTIAL FOR GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS ALSO. A COLD FRONT
PUSHES THROUGH THE REGION BEHIND THESE STORMS. GUSTY NORTHWEST
WINDS AND MVFR CEILINGS DEVELOP AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES EAST
ACROSS THE AREA.
OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NE...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR NEZ065-066-068-078-
088>093.
IA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...MCCOY
AVIATION...CHEHAK
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