038
FXUS63 KOAX 191721
AFDOAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1221 PM CDT TUE MAY 19 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- COOLER WEATHER CONTINUES WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR MORNING FROST
FOR NORTHEAST NEBRASKA ON WEDNESDAY.
- SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES RETURN WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY CONTINUING ON/OFF THROUGH FRIDAY.
- TREND BACK TOWARD WARMER TEMPERATURES OVER THE WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1215 PM CDT TUE MAY 19 2026
TODAY AND TONIGHT...
NORTHERLY WINDS BEHIND YESTERDAY'S COLD FRONT YIELDED COOLER
TEMPERATURES AND GRADUALLY CLEARING SKIES AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTED
INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. OVERNIGHT, TEMPERATURES DIPPED INTO THE MID
40S AS WINDS GUSTED OUT OF THE NORTH AT 20 TO 30 MPH. BY NOON,
TEMPERATURES HAD REACHED THE MID 50S. SKIES WILL CLEAR THROUGH
THE EVENING IN NORTHEAST NEBRASKA, BEFORE SCATTERED CLOUD COVER
BEGINS TO BUILD BACK IN EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. UNDER THE HIGH
PRESSURE AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES, TEMPERATURES WILL DROP WELL
BELOW NORMAL OVERNIGHT. LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO BOTTOM OUT IN THE
LOW 40S IN FAR SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA/SOUTHWEST IOWA, AND THE LOW TO
MID 30S ACROSS NORTHEAST NEBRASKA. LIGHT WINDS COMBINED WITH
THE COOL TEMPS COULD LEAD TO AREAS OF FROST OVER NORTHEAST
NEBRASKA, ESPECIALLY IN LOW LYING AREAS. THEREFORE, A FROST
ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR LOCATIONS ALONG AND NORTH OF A LINE
FROM COLUMBUS TO FREMONT, NE, TO SOLDIER, IOWA.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY, AS A
SHORTWAVE RIPPLES OUT OF THE ROCKIES. TEMPERATURES WILL RISE BACK
INTO THE UPPER 50S AND LOW 60S WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. LOWS WILL
REMAIN SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN WEDNESDAY MORNING, UNDER SOUTHERLY
RETURN FLOW, ONLY DIPPING INTO THE LOW AND MID 40S.
A FEW SHOWERS WILL SNEAK ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WITH THE ADVANCING
SHORTWAVE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. WHILE A FEW RUMBLES OF
THUNDER MAY BE POSSIBLE, FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE LITTLE TO NO
INSTABILITY AVAILABLE WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES, LIKELY PRECLUDING
THE CHANCE FOR STRONG OR SEVERE STORMS.
THURSDAY NIGHT AND BEYOND...
AN UPPER LOW WILL DROP SOUTH OUT OF CANADA INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY, BRINGING INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND STORMS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. WHILE CURRENT MODEL
SOLUTIONS KEEP THE MORE POTENT INSTABILITY TO OUR SOUTH OVER KANSAS
AND OKLAHOMA, VARIATIONS REMAIN IN THE TIMING AND TRACK OF THIS
SYSTEM. AS SUCH, IT WILL BE WORTH KEEPING AN EYE ON FOR SEVERE
POTENTIAL, AS SOLUTIONS COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT.
ALTHOUGH WE MAY HAVE TO CONTEND WITH ONGOING CONVECTION AND CLOUDY
SKIES, SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL DRAW SLIGHTLY WARMER
TEMPERATURES INTO THE REGION FRIDAY, ALLOWING HIGHS TO REACH THE MID
60S.
A COLD FRONT LOOKS TO PASS THROUGH THE REGION LATE FRIDAY/EARLY
SATURDAY, BUT IS QUICKLY FOLLOWED BY A RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST. THIS WILL PUSH WARMER AIR BACK INTO THE PLAINS FOR
THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. THE CURRENT FORECAST CALLS FOR HIGHS INTO THE
LOW 70S ON SATURDAY AND UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S SUNDAY.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1215 PM CDT TUE MAY 19 2026
MVFR CLOUD COVER WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY RETREAT TO THE EAST,
WITH KOMA SCATTERING TO VFR BY 20Z THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL
REMAIN BREEZY OUT OF THE NORTHWEST TODAY, WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 TO
25 KTS. WIND SPEEDS DIP BELOW 12 KTS THIS EVENING, BECOMING
LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT.
OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NE...FROST ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 8 AM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR NEZ011-012-
015>018-030>034-042>044.
IA...FROST ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 8 AM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR IAZ043.
DISCUSSION...KG
AVIATION...KG
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