281
FXUS63 KOAX 201740
AFDOAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1240 PM CDT WED MAY 20 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES RETURN WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY CONTINUING ON/OFF THROUGH FRIDAY.
- TREND BACK TOWARD WARMER TEMPERATURES OVER THE WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1225 PM CDT WED MAY 20 2026
TODAY AND TONIGHT...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SETTLED INTO THE REGION OVERNIGHT, WITH CLEAR
SKIES TO PREVAILING AND LITTLE TO NO WIND. THIS, IN TURN, ALLOWED
TEMPERATURES TO PLUMMET INTO THE MID AND UPPER 30S OVER NORTHEAST
NEBRASKA, AND MID 40S NEAR THE KANSAS/MISSOURI BORDERS BY
SUNRISE THIS MORNING.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE EAST, AS A WEAK UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE
AND ASSOCIATED CLOUD COVER MOVES IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST. A FEW
SPOTTY SHOWERS STRUGGLED TO MOVE EAST FROM CENTRAL NEBRASKA, AS
MORE ABUNDANT DEEP LAYER MOISTURE REMAINED JUST WEST OF THE
FORECAST AREA. MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO FINALLY SHIFT EASTWARD
THIS EVENING, ALLOWING FOR A BETTER CHANCE OF RAIN REACHING THE
SURFACE ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-80, OVER SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA INTO
SOUTHWEST IOWA (15-30%) TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING.
TEMPERATURES WILL RISE BACK INTO THE UPPER 50S AND LOW 60S THIS
AFTERNOON AND THURSDAY. LOWS WILL REMAIN SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN
THIS MORNING, UNDER SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW, ONLY DIPPING INTO THE
LOW AND MID 40S.
THURSDAY NIGHT AND BEYOND...
RAIN CHANCES INCREASE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY, AS A TROUGH DIGS
INTO THE WESTERN CONUS OUT OF SOUTHERN CANADA. WHILE THE EXACT TRACK
OF THIS SYSTEM IS STILL A BIT UNCERTAIN, MODELS CONTINUE TO KEEP THE
MORE POTENT INSTABILITY SOUTH OF THE KANSAS BORDER. THOUGH A
COUPLE RUMBLES OF THUNDER WILL BE POSSIBLE, SEVERE STORMS APPEAR
UNLIKELY AT THIS TIME.
A WEAK COLD FRONT LOOKS TO PASS THROUGH THE REGION LATE FRIDAY/EARLY
SATURDAY AS THE TROUGH LIFTS NORTHEAST, BUT IS QUICKLY FOLLOWED BY
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. THIS WILL PUSH
WARMER AIR BACK INTO THE PLAINS FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. HIGHS WILL
RISE FROM THE 60S ON FRIDAY INTO THE LOW 70S ON SATURDAY AND UPPER
70S TO LOW 80S SUNDAY. MID TO UPPER 80S LOOK PROBABLE FOR THE
MEMORIAL DAY HOLIDAY THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK.
DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL SUNDAY THROUGH MEMORIAL DAY, BEFORE ON
AND OFF SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES RETURN TO THE FORECAST AS A FEW
WEAK WAVES RIPPLE THROUGH THE UPPER FLOW.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 1225 PM CDT WED MAY 20 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY PREVAIL THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD. FEW TO SCT FL030 CLOUDS HAVE BEGUN TO DEVELOP
ALONG AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM KLNK TO KBTA THIS AFTERNOON.
SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS, ISOLATED WEAK THUNDERSTORMS, AND MVFR
CEILINGS WILL BEGIN TO CREEP INTO SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA OVERNIGHT
AND INTO THURSDAY MORNING. A SLIGHT CHANCE (15-25%) FOR SHOWERS
REACHES KLNK BETWEEN 05-18Z THURSDAY. EXPECT MVFR CEILINGS WILL
BECOME PREVAILING AT KLNK SHORTLY AFTER 18Z TOMORROW.
OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...KG
AVIATION...KG
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