205
FXUS63 KOAX 211715
AFDOAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1215 PM CDT THU MAY 21 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- LIGHT SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT (30-60% CHANCE), MAINLY
ACROSS SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA AND SOUTHWEST IOWA.
- WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED.
- TEMPERATURES TREND WARMER THIS WEEKEND, WITH MOSTLY DRY
CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1134 PM CDT WED MAY 20 2026
TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS SHOW WEAK TROUGHING
ACROSS THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL CONUS, RESULTING IN GENERALLY
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE REGION. INCREASING MOISTURE
ADVECTION TONIGHT WILL BRING A 30-60% CHANCE OF RAIN TO AREAS MAINLY
SOUTH OF INTERSTATE-80. SHOWERS SHOULD REMAIN LIGHT, WITH RAINFALL
AMOUNTS LIMITED TO A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH. A SMALL POCKET OF
MUCAPE WILL ALSO BRING A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER INTO THE
AREA. OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO FALL INTO THE 40S.
CLOUD COVER AND COOLER CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THURSDAY,
WITH HIGHS ONLY REACHING THE LOW TO MID 60S, ABOUT 10 TO 15 DEGREES
COOLER THAN SEASONAL NORMS. A BRIEF LULL IN PRECIPITATION CHANCES IS
EXPECTED THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING BEFORE BECOMING MORE
WIDESPREAD THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS A SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE
PIVOTS ACROSS THE FRONT RANGE INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. POPS PEAK AT
75-95% LATE FRIDAY MORNING. ADDITIONAL SPOTTY SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED LATER IN THE DAY AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES
THROUGH. THERE APPEARS TO BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR A FEW RUMBLES OF
THUNDER, BUT SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED. RAIN CHANCES WILL
GRADUALLY TAPER OFF FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING, WITH HIGHS AGAIN
TOPPING OUT IN THE LOW TO MID 60S. LATEST NBM GUIDANCE SHOWS A
WIDESPREAD 70-90% PROBABILITY FOR AT LEAST 0.25 INCH OF
PRECIPITATION, ALONG WITH A 40-70% PROBABILITY OF AT LEAST 0.50 INCH
THROUGH THE PERIOD.
SATURDAY AND BEYOND...
A WARMING TREND WILL TAKE HOLD THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS MID-LEVEL
RIDGING AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION. HIGHS WILL
CLIMB INTO THE LOW 70S ON SATURDAY, LOW 80S ON SUNDAY, AND GENERALLY
THE MID 80S FROM MEMORIAL DAY INTO THE START OF NEXT WEEK. THE
WEEKEND LOOKS MOSTLY DRY. CONFIDENCE IN THE LARGE-SCALE PATTERN
DECREASES THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF NEXT WEEK. LONG-RANGE GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS A TROUGH MAY MOVE IN FROM THE WESTERN CONUS BY MID TO LATE
WEEK, THOUGH CONSIDERABLE SPREAD REMAINS IN THE TIMING AND TRACK OF
THIS FEATURES, LEADING TO UNCERTAINTY IN ANY ADDITIONAL
PRECIPITATION CHANCES. FOR NOW, PERIODIC 15-30% POPS PERSIST THROUGH
MUCH OF THE WORK WEEK.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 1204 PM CDT THU MAY 21 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON WITH PEAKS OF SUN AND
SCATTERED CUMULUS BETWEEN 3-5 KFT. DENSER MID TO HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS LINGER ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA DURING THIS
TIME. A WEATHER SYSTEM APPROACHES THE REGION THIS EVENING.
CEILINGS WILL GRADUALLY FALL AS THIS OCCURS. MVFR CEILINGS ARE
ANTICIPATED THIS EVENING AT OFK AND LNK WITH OMA EXPECTED TO
FALL LATER TONIGHT. IFR CEILINGS WILL LIKELY FOLLOW AT OFK AND
LNK TONIGHT. RAIN COINCIDES WITH THE DECREASING CEILINGS, LIKELY
RESTRICTING VISIBILITY TO MVFR AT TIMES. A RUMBLE OF THUNDER
CAN'T BE RULED OUT, BUT THE BEST CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS DOES
NOT ARRIVE UNTIL FRIDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS REMAIN MOSTLY LIGHT AT
THE EAST-SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...WOOD
AVIATION...CHEHAK
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