874
FXUS63 KOAX 211800
AFDOAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
100 PM CDT THU MAY 21 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT
INTO FRIDAY (70-95% CHANCE). SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED.
- A WARMING TREND BEGINS THIS WEEKEND, WITH MOSTLY DRY
CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.
- OUR NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN ARRIVES LATER NEXT WEEK, BUT THERE IS
CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY IN TIMING AND COVERAGE.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1243 PM CDT THU MAY 21 2026
RELATIVELY COOL AND QUIET WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S UNDER PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES. OUR NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM BEGINS TO OVERSPREAD THE REGION
TONIGHT. WIDESPREAD RAIN CHANCES (70-95%) EXPAND ACROSS THE AREA
FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH FRIDAY. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN
POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY AS A SMALL AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY DEVELOPS
FRIDAY AFTERNOON. NO SEVERE WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED DUE TO THE
LIMITED INSTABILITY. TEMPERATURES REMAIN COOLER IN THE 60S DUE
TO RAIN AND CLOUD COVER.
AS THIS SYSTEM DEPARTS THE REGION THIS WEEKEND, A WARMING TREND
TAKES OVER. MID-LEVEL RIDGING AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
SUPPORTS INCREASED SUNSHINE AND MOSTLY DRY WEATHER THROUGH THE
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES CLIMB INTO THE 70S ON
SATURDAY, TO NEAR 80 ON SUNDAY, AND INTO THE MID 80S ON
MEMORIAL DAY. ENJOY THE BEAUTIFUL WEATHER!
BY THE MIDDLE TO END OF NEXT WEEK, FORECAST GUIDANCE BEGINS TO
DIVERGE SUBSTANTIALLY. A LARGE TROUGH IS SET TO MOVE INTO THE
WEST COAST EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE EVOLUTION OF THIS FEATURE AS IT
MOVES ONSHORE LATER IN THE WEEK REMAINS SPLIT AMONGST
ENSEMBLES. THE TIMING AND LOCATION OF THIS FEATURE AS IT
APPROACHES OUR AREA IS UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME. THAT BEING SAID,
EXPECT TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 80S EACH DAY WITH AT LEAST A LOW
(20-40%) CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AT TIMES,
ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON. EVENTUALLY, MORE SUBSTANTIAL
CHANGES IN THE FORECAST SHOULD COINCIDE WITH THE EJECTION OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH. STAY TUNED AS FORECAST CONFIDENCE
INCREASES OVER THE COMING DAYS.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 1204 PM CDT THU MAY 21 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON WITH PEAKS OF SUN AND
SCATTERED CUMULUS BETWEEN 3-5 KFT. DENSER MID TO HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS LINGER ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA DURING THIS
TIME. A WEATHER SYSTEM APPROACHES THE REGION THIS EVENING.
CEILINGS WILL GRADUALLY FALL AS THIS OCCURS. MVFR CEILINGS ARE
ANTICIPATED THIS EVENING AT OFK AND LNK WITH OMA EXPECTED TO
FALL LATER TONIGHT. IFR CEILINGS WILL LIKELY FOLLOW AT OFK AND
LNK TONIGHT. RAIN COINCIDES WITH THE DECREASING CEILINGS, LIKELY
RESTRICTING VISIBILITY TO MVFR AT TIMES. A RUMBLE OF THUNDER
CAN'T BE RULED OUT, BUT THE BEST CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS DOES
NOT ARRIVE UNTIL FRIDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS REMAIN MOSTLY LIGHT AT
THE EAST-SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...CHEHAK
AVIATION...CHEHAK
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page