161
FXUS63 KOAX 221051
AFDOAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
551 AM CDT FRI MAY 22 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. ANOTHER BROKEN LINE OF STORMS IS
EXPECTED LATER FRIDAY WITH A STRONG TO SEVERE STORM OR TWO
POSSIBLE. HAIL IS THE PRIMARY HAZARD.
- A WARMING TREND BEGINS THIS WEEKEND, WITH MOSTLY DRY
CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.
- RAIN CHANCES RETURN BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK, THOUGH TIMING
AND COVERAGE REMAIN UNCERTAIN.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1116 PM CDT THU MAY 21 2026
FRIDAY...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS DEPICT AN UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGH MOVING FROM THE FRONT RANGE INTO THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN
PLAINS, MAINTAINING GENERALLY SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE
REGION. INCREASING MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND FORCING FOR ASCENT HAVE
LED TO SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THIS EVENING, WHICH WILL
BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD OVERNIGHT. POPS RANGE FROM 75-100% AND PEAK
AT MOST LOCATIONS DURING THE MID TO LATE MORNING HOURS (8AM-11AM).
ENOUGH ELEVATED INSTABILITY IS PRESENT FOR A FEW EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
SHOWERS WILL CLEAR FROM WEST TO EAST LATE FRIDAY MORNING INTO EARLY
FRIDAY AFTERNOON, WITH HIGHS REACHING THE 60S TO LOW 70S. BY LATE
FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY EVENING, THE MAIN VORTICITY MAXIMUM
WILL PIVOT ACROSS THE DAKOTAS AND PUSH A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
AREA. A SCATTERED TO BROKEN LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT AS IT MOVES WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA. THE STRONGER SHEAR AND BETTER INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN
DISPLACED FROM ONE ANOTHER, LIMITING OVERALL SEVERE WEATHER
POTENTIAL. INSTABILITY WILL BE MAXIMIZED ACROSS SOUTHEAST NE
AND SOUTHWEST IA, WHERE 750-1000 J/KG OF MLCAPE IS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP, WHILE HIGHER VALUES REMAIN SOUTH OF THE NE/KS BORDER.
MEANWHILE, THE STRONGER BULK SHEAR WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE
NE/SD BORDER, WITH ONLY AROUND 25-30 KTS EXTENDING INTO THE
LOCAL AREA. WITH THIS SETUP, INGREDIENTS MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR A
STRONG TO SEVERE STORM OR TWO ACROSS FAR EASTERN
NEBRASKA/WESTERN IOWA. HODOGRAPHS DO SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL FOR A
LOW TOPPED SUPERCELL OR TWO. THIS ROUND OF STORMS SHOULD MOVE
THROUGH QUICKLY, WITH PRECIPITATION EXPECTED TO EXIT THE AREA
BEFORE MIDNIGHT.
CAM GUIDANCE IS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT IN PLACING THE HIGHEST
RAINFALL TOTALS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS IN SWATCH FROM NORTHEAST NE
INTO NORTHWEST IA. HREF GUIDANCE BRING A 70-100% PROBABILITY OF AT
LEAST 0.50 INCHES OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS NORTHEAST NE, WITH
PROBABILITIES DECREASING FARTHER SOUTH. THERE IS ALSO A 50-75%
PROBABILITY OF AT LEAST 1 INCH OF RAINFALL ACROSS PORTIONS OF
NORTHEAST NEBRASKA. LOCALIZED POCKETS MAY PUSH TOWARDS 1.50
INCHES. A WELCOME SIGHT AFTER THE AREA MISSED OUT ON A LOT OF
MEANINGFUL RAINFALL SO FAR THIS SEASON.
SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
A WARMING TREND WILL TAKE HOLD THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND AS MID-
LEVEL RIDING AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SLIDE INTO THE AREA. HIGHS
ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE LOW TO MID 70S ON SATURDAY, LOW 80S ON
SUNDAY, AND MID TO UPPER 80S ON MONDAY. GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. A WEAK VORTICITY MAXIMUM
PASSING BY TO THE NORTH MAY BRING A STRAY LIGHT SHOWER OR TWO ON
MONDAY. MOISTURE WILL BE VERY LIMITED, SO THE HOLIDAY IS NOT
EXPECTED TO BE A WASHOUT BY ANY MEANS, BUT A LOW CHANCE (AROUND 10-
15%) FOR A LIGHT SHOWER WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE EARLY MONDAY.
TUESDAY AND BEYOND...
THE LARGE-SCALE PATTERN BECOMES SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN NEXT WEEK AS A
TROUGH MOVES ONSHORE ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS. LONG-RANGE GUIDANCE
DIVERGES ON THE SPEED AND PLACEMENT OF THIS FEATURES AS IT
PROGRESSES EASTWARD, LEADING TO UNCERTAINTY IN THE TIMING AND
LOCATION OF PRECIPITATION CHANCES. FOR NOW, HIGHS GENERALLY REMAIN
IN THE MID 80S, WITH INTERMITTENT 30-50% POPS TUESDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY. EXPECTED FURTHER REFINEMENTS TO PRECIPITATION TIMING AS THE
PERIOD APPROACHES. NO PARTICULAR DAY CURRENTLY STAND OUT FOR SEVERE
WEATHER, AS MORE MEANINGFUL MOISTURE ADVECTION AND FORCING FOR
ASCENT DON'T ARRIVE UNTIL AT LEAST MIDWEEK AND APPEAR MAXIMIZED TO
OUR WEST FOR THE TIME BEING.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 551 AM CDT FRI MAY 22 2026
MVFR/IFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS CONTINUE TO IMPACT
TERMINALS THIS MORNING AS A COMPLEX OF SHOWERS AND A FEW
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS PUSHES EAST NORTHEAST INTO THE AREA.
HAVE CONTINUED MENTIONS OF -SHRA AT KOFK WITH IFR CEILINGS UNTIL
NOON AND GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT IN CONDITIONS TO MVFR AND VFR
EXPECTED BY THE LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. KOMA AND KLNK WILL
SEE MORE -SHRA LATE THIS MORNING, WITH -TSRA FORECAST TO MOVE
THROUGH THESE TERMINALS IN THE AFTERNOON. MVFR CEILINGS WILL
PERSIST WITH THIS ACTIVITY BEFORE SLOWLY LIFTING AFTER 00Z.
UNCERTAINTY REMAINS WITH HOW FAR NORTH STORMS MAY DEVELOP TOWARD
KOFK, SO HAVE LEFT MENTIONS OUT AT THAT TERMINAL BUT WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR AND ASSESS TRENDS. THESE AFTERNOON STORMS
COULD BE STRONG WITH HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS THE PRIMARY THREATS.
SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY THIS MORNING AT 20 TO 30 KTS
WITH THE STRONGEST GUSTS EXPECTED AT KOFK. GUSTINESS SUBSIDES BY
THE LATE AFTERNOON AS A FRONT MOVES THROUGH AND SWITCHES WINDS
TO THE SOUTH SOUTHWEST.
OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...WOOD
AVIATION...CASTILLO
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