217
FXUS63 KOAX 221710
AFDOAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1210 PM CDT FRI MAY 22 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. ANOTHER BROKEN LINE OF STORMS IS
EXPECTED LATER FRIDAY WITH A STRONG TO SEVERE STORM OR TWO
POSSIBLE. HAIL IS THE PRIMARY HAZARD.
- A WARMING TREND BEGINS THIS WEEKEND, WITH MOSTLY DRY
CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.
- RAIN CHANCES RETURN BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK, THOUGH TIMING
AND COVERAGE REMAIN UNCERTAIN.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1116 PM CDT THU MAY 21 2026
FRIDAY...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS DEPICT AN UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGH MOVING FROM THE FRONT RANGE INTO THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN
PLAINS, MAINTAINING GENERALLY SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE
REGION. INCREASING MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND FORCING FOR ASCENT HAVE
LED TO SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THIS EVENING, WHICH WILL
BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD OVERNIGHT. POPS RANGE FROM 75-100% AND PEAK
AT MOST LOCATIONS DURING THE MID TO LATE MORNING HOURS (8AM-11AM).
ENOUGH ELEVATED INSTABILITY IS PRESENT FOR A FEW EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
SHOWERS WILL CLEAR FROM WEST TO EAST LATE FRIDAY MORNING INTO EARLY
FRIDAY AFTERNOON, WITH HIGHS REACHING THE 60S TO LOW 70S. BY LATE
FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY EVENING, THE MAIN VORTICITY MAXIMUM
WILL PIVOT ACROSS THE DAKOTAS AND PUSH A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
AREA. A SCATTERED TO BROKEN LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT AS IT MOVES WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA. THE STRONGER SHEAR AND BETTER INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN
DISPLACED FROM ONE ANOTHER, LIMITING OVERALL SEVERE WEATHER
POTENTIAL. INSTABILITY WILL BE MAXIMIZED ACROSS SOUTHEAST NE
AND SOUTHWEST IA, WHERE 750-1000 J/KG OF MLCAPE IS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP, WHILE HIGHER VALUES REMAIN SOUTH OF THE NE/KS BORDER.
MEANWHILE, THE STRONGER BULK SHEAR WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE
NE/SD BORDER, WITH ONLY AROUND 25-30 KTS EXTENDING INTO THE
LOCAL AREA. WITH THIS SETUP, INGREDIENTS MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR A
STRONG TO SEVERE STORM OR TWO ACROSS FAR EASTERN
NEBRASKA/WESTERN IOWA. HODOGRAPHS DO SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL FOR A
LOW TOPPED SUPERCELL OR TWO. THIS ROUND OF STORMS SHOULD MOVE
THROUGH QUICKLY, WITH PRECIPITATION EXPECTED TO EXIT THE AREA
BEFORE MIDNIGHT.
CAM GUIDANCE IS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT IN PLACING THE HIGHEST
RAINFALL TOTALS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS IN SWATCH FROM NORTHEAST NE
INTO NORTHWEST IA. HREF GUIDANCE BRING A 70-100% PROBABILITY OF AT
LEAST 0.50 INCHES OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS NORTHEAST NE, WITH
PROBABILITIES DECREASING FARTHER SOUTH. THERE IS ALSO A 50-75%
PROBABILITY OF AT LEAST 1 INCH OF RAINFALL ACROSS PORTIONS OF
NORTHEAST NEBRASKA. LOCALIZED POCKETS MAY PUSH TOWARDS 1.50
INCHES. A WELCOME SIGHT AFTER THE AREA MISSED OUT ON A LOT OF
MEANINGFUL RAINFALL SO FAR THIS SEASON.
SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
A WARMING TREND WILL TAKE HOLD THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND AS MID-
LEVEL RIDING AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SLIDE INTO THE AREA. HIGHS
ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE LOW TO MID 70S ON SATURDAY, LOW 80S ON
SUNDAY, AND MID TO UPPER 80S ON MONDAY. GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. A WEAK VORTICITY MAXIMUM
PASSING BY TO THE NORTH MAY BRING A STRAY LIGHT SHOWER OR TWO ON
MONDAY. MOISTURE WILL BE VERY LIMITED, SO THE HOLIDAY IS NOT
EXPECTED TO BE A WASHOUT BY ANY MEANS, BUT A LOW CHANCE (AROUND 10-
15%) FOR A LIGHT SHOWER WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE EARLY MONDAY.
TUESDAY AND BEYOND...
THE LARGE-SCALE PATTERN BECOMES SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN NEXT WEEK AS A
TROUGH MOVES ONSHORE ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS. LONG-RANGE GUIDANCE
DIVERGES ON THE SPEED AND PLACEMENT OF THIS FEATURES AS IT
PROGRESSES EASTWARD, LEADING TO UNCERTAINTY IN THE TIMING AND
LOCATION OF PRECIPITATION CHANCES. FOR NOW, HIGHS GENERALLY REMAIN
IN THE MID 80S, WITH INTERMITTENT 30-50% POPS TUESDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY. EXPECTED FURTHER REFINEMENTS TO PRECIPITATION TIMING AS THE
PERIOD APPROACHES. NO PARTICULAR DAY CURRENTLY STAND OUT FOR SEVERE
WEATHER, AS MORE MEANINGFUL MOISTURE ADVECTION AND FORCING FOR
ASCENT DON'T ARRIVE UNTIL AT LEAST MIDWEEK AND APPEAR MAXIMIZED TO
OUR WEST FOR THE TIME BEING.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 1210 PM CDT FRI MAY 22 2026
A MIX OF MVFR/IFR CIGS AROUND THIS MORNING WITH SHOWERS EXITING
TO THE EAST. WE MAY SEE SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS OR BRIEF
CLEARING BETWEEN 18Z AND 21Z BEFORE A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOPS ALONG THE COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS OUR AREA. BY THE
TIME STORMS DEVELOP, THE LINE SHOULD ALREADY BE EAST OF KOFK, SO
NOT EXPECTING IMPACTS AT THIS TERMINAL. KLNK AND KOMA MAY SEE
STORMS (70% CHANCE) MOVE THROUGH AROUND 20-22Z. IT LIKELY WON'T
BE A SOLID LINE OF STORMS SO THERE IS POTENTIAL THAT KLNK AND/OR
KOMA MAY BE MISSED. STORMS SHOULD CLEAR WITHIN AN HOUR AS THE
LINE MOVES FAIRLY QUICKLY FROM WEST TO EAST. EXPECT WINDS TO
SHIFT TOWARD WESTERLY BEHIND THE FRONT WITH CIGS IMPROVING TO
VFR. WINDS WILL BE SHIFTING TOWARD NORTHWESTERLY AS CIGS CLEAR
THROUGH THE EVENING.
OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...WOOD
AVIATION...MCCOY
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