585
FXUS63 KOAX 230451
AFDOAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1151 PM CDT FRI MAY 22 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- A WARMING TREND BEGINS THIS WEEKEND, WITH HIGHS REACHING THE
UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S BY MONDAY.
- WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND, WITH A STRONG STORM OR TWO POSSIBLE SUNDAY.
DRY PERIODS WILL OUTNUMBER WET ONES.
- PERIODIC PRECIPITATION CHANCES CONTINUE TUESDAY THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WORKWEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1038 PM CDT FRI MAY 22 2026
SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
A MID-LEVEL LOW PIVOTING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS THIS EVENING
PUSHED A COLD FRONT EASTWARD THROUGH THE AREA. A BROKEN LINE OF
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPED ALONG THE FRONT, WITH A FEW STRONGER
EMBEDDED CORES. STORMS WILL CONTINUE MOVING EAST AND SHOULD EXIT THE
AREA SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY SLIDES ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY AS
MID-LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS INTO THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS,
BRINGING A WARMING TREND THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. HIGHS ARE
EXPECTED TO REACH THE MID 70S SATURDAY, LOW TO MID 80S SUNDAY, AND
UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S MONDAY. MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL,
THOUGH LOW-END, NEAR-DAILY SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES REMAIN POSSIBLE
AS WEAK WAVES PASS THROUGH THE REGION.
THE FIRST CHANCE ARRIVES SATURDAY EVENING, MAINLY ACROSS NORTHEAST
NEBRASKA WHERE A STRAY SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE. WEAK
SHEAR AND MODEST INSTABILITY SHOULD LIMIT STORM ORGANIZATION.
CHANCES INCREASE SLIGHTLY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A WEAK
SURFACE TROUGH MOVES NEAR THE NE/SD BORDER. MUCAPE OF 1500-2000 J/KG
AND BULK SHEAR NEAR 30 KTS MAY SUPPORT A STRONG STORM OR TWO, WITH
THE BEST CHANCES ACROSS NORTHEAST NE INTO SOUTHWEST IA. DAMAGING
WIND GUSTS (UP TO 65 MPH) AND HAIL (UP TO 1 INCH) ARE THE PRIMARY
HAZARDS. SPC MAINTAINS A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER IN THIS
AREA. ADDITIONAL WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS OR STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
MONDAY AS TEMPERATURES WARM (LIKELY TO CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES) AND
INSTABILITY INCREASES, THOUGH WEAK SHEAR AND LIMITED FORCING SHOULD
KEEP THE CHANCE LIMITED. OVERALL, DRY PERIODS WILL GREATLY OUTWEIGH
WET ONES THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND, BUT THOSE WITH OUTDOOR PLANS
SHOULD STAY WEATHER AWARE.
TUESDAY AND BEYOND...
A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL LOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ONSHORE ACROSS THE
WESTERN CONUS EARLY NEXT WEEK AND SLOWLY DEEPEN AS IT SHIFTS
EASTWARD. MOISTURE RETURN WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM, WITH
HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE LOW 80S THROUGH MUCH OF THE WORK WEEK.
PERIODIC PRECIPITATION CHANCES RETURN LATE TUESDAY AND CONTINUE
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WORKWEEK AS SEVERAL WEAK DISTURBANCES
MOVE THROUGH THE REGION. POPS GENERALLY RANGE FROM 20-50%, THOUGH
TIMING AND LOCATIONS WILL LIKELY BE REFINED AS GUIDANCE BETTER
RESOLVES EACH WAVE. NO PARTICULAR DAY STANDS OUT FOR SEVERE WEATHER
AT THIS TIME, AS INSTABILITY APPEARS MODEST AND STRONGER
SHEAR/FORCING LOOK DISPLACES FROM THE AREA. GEFS AND EPS MACHINE-
LEARNING GUIDANCE ALSO KEEP THE BETTER SEVERE PROBABILITIES FOCUSED
TO OUR SOUTH AND WEST. A SHIFT IN DISTURBANCE TRACKS COULD CHANGE
THIS, BUT FOR NOW, THE SEVERE WEATHER SIGNAL REMAINS LIMITED.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 1151 PM CDT FRI MAY 22 2026
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL AT ALL TERMINALS LATE THIS EVENING AND
WILL PERSIST FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF CYCLE. CEILINGS WILL
CONTINUE TO LIFT AT KOMA AS LINGERING 5,000 FT CEILINGS PUSH
EAST. WILL SEE CEILINGS LOWER TO 8,000 TO 12,000 FEET BY LATE
THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING AT TERMINALS. THERE IS A LOW END
CHANCE (15-20%) FOR A SCATTERED SHOWER OR STORM TO IMPACT KOFK
AFTER 00Z. WEST NORTHWEST WINDS REMAIN UNDER 12 KTS FOR MUCH OF
THE TAF PERIOD, SWITCHING TO THE SOUTH SOUTHEAST BY 00Z BUT
REMAINING UNDER 12 KTS.
OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...WOOD
AVIATION...CASTILLO
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