178
FXUS63 KOAX 231854
AFDOAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
154 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- TODAY IS DAY ONE OF A THREE DAY WARMING TREND. EXPECT A RETURN
OF THE 80S TOMORROW AND MONDAY.
- A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING/TONIGHT
ACROSS NORTHERN NEBRASKA. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY.
- A SHIFT IN THE PATTERN BRINGS COOLER TEMPERATURES AND DAILY
CHANCES OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TO THE REGION
BEGINNING TUESDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 153 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2026
THE FORECAST PERIOD BEGINS WITH AN UPPER LOW OVER SASKATCHEWAN AND
MANITOBA AND WEAK SFC HIGH PRESSURE OVER EASTERN KANSAS AND
OKLAHOMA. SATELLITE SHOWS SOME CLOUDS STREAMING IN ACROSS THE BORDER
FROM KANSAS INTO SOUTHEASTERN NEBRASKA AND SOUTHWESTERN IOWA.
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY ALSO SHOWS AN AREA OF CUMULUS CLOUDS
ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA WHERE SURFACE ANALYSIS IS SHOWING A
MOISTURE PLUME COMING IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST AND AN AREA OF
CONVERGENCE. MLCAPE VALUES OF MAYBE 500 J/KG AND SBCAPE OF 500-1000
J/KG ARE EXPECTED ALONG WITH SOME DECENT LAPSE RATES. A FEW SHOWERS
AND MAYBE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS PORTIONS OF
NORTHEASTERN NEBRASKA THIS EVENING/TONIGHT; HOWEVER, A WIDESPREAD
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT IS NOT EXPECTED. SHOULD A FEW STRONGER STORMS
DEVELOP, WIND AND SOME SMALL HAIL WOULD BE THE MAIN CONCERNS.
HEADING INTO SUNDAY, THE UPPER TROUGH SHIFTS EAST, CENTERED OVER
NORTHERN MISSOURI AND INTO IOWA DURING THE MORNING. A WEAK SHORTWAVE
LIFTS NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE REGION DURING THE DAY. THIS MAY KICK
OFF A FEW SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. MODELS HAVE BEEN
PESSIMISTIC OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS OVER THE STORM POTENTIAL.
HOWEVER, A FEW ARE STARTING TO PICK UP ON THE POSSIBILITY OF
SOMETHING COMING IN ALONG WITH A SMALL PLUME OF MOISTURE ADVECTING
IN. WENT WITH A BLEND OF THE NAMNEST, SREF AND ECMWF TO PUT IN SOME
LOW POPS FOR SUNDAY TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS POTENTIAL. CONFIDENCE IS
STILL LOW AS TO SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL; HOWEVER, IF A STRONG STORM
WERE TO DEVELOP, THE MOST LIKELY CONCERN WOULD BE HAIL.
MONDAY CAPS OFF A THREE-DAY WARMING TREND WITH HIGHS RETURNING TO
THE MID TO UPPER 80S FOR MOST LOCATIONS. A FEW LOW 90S ARE NOT
ENTIRELY OUT OF THE QUESTION, PARTICULARLY FOR NORTHEASTERN
NEBRASKA.
MONDAY THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD, THE PATTERN
SHIFTS, GIVING THE CWA DAILY CHANCES FOR A FEW SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS. THE OVERALL PATTERN HAS A RIDGE OVER THE FORECAST
AREA MONDAY WITH AN UPPER LOW OVER THE ALEUTIANS. THE LOW IS
EXPECTED TO COME ASHORE OVER THE PACNW MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY MORNING,
DIGGING SOUTH INTO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA BY THURSDAY MORNING.
MEANWHILE, SEVERAL DISTURBANCES WILL FILTER THROUGH OUR AREA,
BRINGING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 1232 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2026
KOFK: VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. EXPECT
WESTERLY WINDS TO BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY BY 20Z AND SOUTHERLY BY
04Z AS A WEAK DISTURBANCE PUSHES IN. A FEW SCATTERED RAIN
SHOWERS MAY BE POSSIBLE AFTER 00Z, BUT CONFIDENCE IN LOCATIONS
REMAIN FAIRLY LOW (15-20%) AT THIS TIME. RAIN CHANCES WILL CLEAR
UP BY 04Z, WITH DRY CONDITIONS AND CLEARING SKIES EXPECTED FOR
THE ERST OF THE PERIOD.
KOMA/KLNK: VFR CONDITIONS PERSIST THROUGH THE PERIOD AT THE
TERMINALS. NORTHWEST WINDS REMAIN LIGHT THROUGH THE AFTERNOON,
BEGINNING TO TURN TO THE WEST-SOUTHWEST BY 20Z. WINDS BECOME
SOUTHERLY BY 00Z AT KLNK AND 02Z AT KOMA. DRY CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD, ALTHOUGH THERE MAY BE A FEW
SHOWERS/STORMS TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE TERMINALS AFTER 00Z.
OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...ANW
AVIATION...ANW
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