201
FXUS63 KOAX 241047
AFDOAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
547 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO WARM FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
- A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE SUNDAY EVENING IN
NORTHEAST NEBRASKA. SOME STORMS MAY BE STRONG OR SEVERE WITH A
THREAT OF 2" HAIL.
- A SHIFT IN THE PATTERN BRINGS COOLER TEMPERATURES AND DAILY
CHANCES OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TO THE REGION
BEGINNING WEDNESDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1030 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2026
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY THIS EVENING REVEALS AMPLIFIED TROFING
ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS WITH A CUTOFF LOW NOTED AT H7.
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IN NORTHEAST NEBRASKA THIS EVENING IS
TIED TO A SHORTWAVE ROUNDING THE TROF'S BASE. A SURFACE HIGH
SHIFTING EAST HAS KEPT SOUTHERLY WIND SPEEDS UNDER TEN KNOTS
EXCEPT THE OCCASIONAL GUST EMANATING FROM UNDER THE
THUNDERSHOWERS. THE DRY LOW-LEVELS HAVE LEFT "INVERTED-V"
VERTICAL PROFILES. THIS PROVIDES A CHANCE FOR THE PRECIP TO
EVAPORATE AND PRODUCE SIGNIFICANT WIND GUSTS. KBIE RECORDED ONE
GUST JUST SHY OF SEVERE CRITERIA AT 56 MPH AROUND 7PM. THE
THUNDER-SHOWERS ARE WEAKENING AND DISSIPATING AS THEY MOVE EAST
INTO A MORE STABLE ENVIRONMENT. SKIES WILL OTHERWISE BE MOSTLY
CLEAR WITH LOWS SLIPPING INTO THE LOWER-50S AND NEAR SEASONAL
NORMS.
SUNDAY
SUNDAY'S WEATHER REALLY LOOKS A LOT LIKE TODAY'S IF MAYBE A
LITTLE "EXTRA". SFC TEMPS WILL BE WARMER, INCREASING BY ABOUT
5-10 DEGREES AS MID-LEVEL HEIGHTS CLIMB AND THE FLOW BECOMES
MORE ZONAL. SKIES WILL BE SUNNIER AND SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BE
STRONGER AT 10-20 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON. THEN, JUST LIKE TODAY, A
SHORTWAVE APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST BRINGS A CHANCE OF
T-STORMS IN THE AFTERNOON. THE THREAT IS CONDITIONAL IN THAT IT
MAY NOT HAPPEN AT ALL, BUT IF STORMS DO DEVELOP, THEY MAY GROW
SUPERCELLULAR WITH UP TO 40 KNOTS OF EFFECTIVE SHEER AND ARCING
HODOS. THE PRIMARY CONCERN WILL BE HAIL UP TO 2". THE TORNADO
THREAT WILL BE LOW WITH ELEVATED LCLS (5KFT) (DRY LOW LEVELS).
AGAIN, MOST ACTIVITY SHOULD BE OUT OF THE AREA BY MIDNIGHT.
QUICKER OVERNIGHT WINDS WILL LEAVE SUNDAY NIGHT TEMPS WARMER,
TOO. LOWS SHOULD HOLD NEAR 60F.
MONDAY AND TUESDAY
TEMPERATURES PEAK ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH RIDGING BUILDING
OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS IN RESPONSE TO A CUT-OFF LOW DIGGING DOWN
THE WEST COAST. TEMPS SHOULD HIT AFTERNOON ZENITHS IN THE
MID-80S. MORE THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP IN THE VICINITY OF THE
WASHED OUT BOUNDARY ON MONDAY AFTERNOON (30% POPS), BUT FORCING
FOR ASCENT IS WEAK AND SHEAR FALLS SHY OF WHERE WE'D HOPE IT TO
BE, TOO. SO WHILE THERE MAY BE SOME THUNDER, SEVERE WEATHER
DOESN'T LOOK LIKELY AT THIS POINT.
TUESDAY'S TEMPS MIRROR MONDAY'S, BUT WITH GUIDANCE CURRENTLY
KEEPING THINGS DRY.
SECOND HALF OF NEXT WEEK
THE UPPER PATTERN STAGNATES MID-WAY THROUGH NEXT WEEK AS THE
CUTOFF LOW SPINS OVER THE GREAT BASIN AND AN OMEGA BLOCK SETS UP
OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS. 12Z DETERMINISTIC GLOBAL GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS A HEAVY RAIN-MAKING SFC LOW MEANDERING NORTHWEST FROM
THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA THROUGH SOME PORTION OF THE
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS. NBM'S POPS CURRENTLY PEAK AT 50-70% ON
THURSDAY EVENING. WITH WEAK STEERING FLOW AND PWAT VALUES ABOVE
90TH PERCENTILE OF LATE MAY CLIMATOLOGY (NAEFS), SIGNIFICANT
RAIN IS POSSIBLE AND - FOR MANY LOCATIONS - HOPED FOR.
TEMPERATURES ARE PROGGED TO FALL CLOSER TO NORMAL WITH MID- TO
UPPER-70S WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 547 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE OBSERVED AT ALL TAF SITES TO START THE
PERIOD. WILL SEE LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS BECOME GUSTY BY THE LATE
MORNING AND AFTERNOON AT 20-25 KTS. GUSTINESS WILL LINGER
AROUND UNTIL 01-02Z. A BROKEN LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED
TO DEVELOP FROM JUST WEST OF KOFK AFTER 21Z AND TRACK EAST
SOUTHEAST, POTENTIALLY CLIPPING KLNK BY 00Z. HOWEVER,
SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES IN MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE OBSERVED WITH
THIS 12Z ISSUANCE, WITH SOME GUIDANCE DEVELOPING STORMS FAR AWAY
FROM TERMINALS. FOR NOW, CHANCES REMAIN AT 15 TO 30% FOR
OCCURRENCE AT KOFK AND KLNK, AND ABOUT A 15% CHANCE AT KOMA.
HAVE LEFT MENTIONS OUT OF THIS ISSUANCE GIVEN LOW CONFIDENCE BUT
WILL CONTINUE TO RE-EVALUATE TRENDS WITH NEXT ISSUANCE. EXPECT
LOCALIZED VISIBILITY AND CEILING RESTRICTIONS WITH ANY STORMS
THAT DEVELOP.
A FEW CLOUDS LINGER INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH LOW LEVEL WIND
SHEAR OVERSPREADING TERMINALS AFTER 04Z.
OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...NICOLAISEN
AVIATION...CASTILLO
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