839
FXUS64 KOHX 271742
AFDOHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1142 AM CST WED NOV 27 2024
..NEW AVIATION
SHORT TERM
(REST OF TODAY THROUGH THANKSGIVING NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1127 AM CST WED NOV 27 2024
THANKSGIVING EVE IS UPON US AND WHILE I SMELL A LOT OF TURKEY, IT
AIN'T COMING FROM THIS FORECAST. ARE WE GOING TO GET SOME RAIN
TONIGHT AND MAYBE A RUMBLE OF THUNDER (SOUTH OF I-40)? YES, BUT
MODELS ARE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT PRECIPITATION WILL BE OUT OF THE
MID-STATE AND INTO EAST TN BEFORE BREAKFAST TOMORROW WITH NO SEVERE
THREAT AND NONE OF THAT WHITE STUFF. IN FACT, THE PROGRESSIVE NATURE
OF THIS SYSTEM IS ALSO CAUSING QPFS TO CONTINUE TO DWINDLE. A FEW
SPOTS EAST OF I-65 MIGHT SEE 1/2", BUT THE BULK OF THE AREA WILL BE
LUCKY TO SEE 1/4".
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1127 AM CST WED NOV 27 2024
THE BIGGER STORY WITH TONIGHT'S FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL BE TEMPERATURES,
AS WE WILL GET MULTIPLE SHOTS OF CP AIR OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS. THE FIRST ONE WILL DRIVE LOWS FRIDAY MORNING INTO THE LOW
30S AND UPPER 20S AND THIS WILL BE THE ONE EVERYBODY WILL BE
INTERESTED IN BECAUSE IT COULD BE THE FIRST TIME BNA REACHES THE
FREEZING MARK THIS FALL. CURRENT PROBS HAVE BNA BEING 32 OR
COLDER AROUND AN 80% CHANCE, SO IT'S A PRETTY GOOD BET, BUT
THERE'S ALSO A 20% CHANCE IT DOESN'T GET THERE. IF THE MERCURY
REACHES 32, WE'LL BEAT THE RECORD BY TWO DAYS. IF IT DOESN'T,
SATURDAY MORNING WILL BE A SLAM DUNK AS MORNING LOWS ARE EXPECTED
TO BE IN THE UPPER TEENS AND LOW 20S.
IF YOU SAW OUR SOCIALS YESTERDAY, I POSTED A PROBABILITY GRAPHIC OF
A TENTH OF INCH OF SNOW OR MORE SATURDAY NIGHT. THEY'RE STILL PRETTY
MEAGER WITH A CLIPPER SYSTEM EXPECTED TO SWING THROUGH THE REGION
AFTER SUNSET SATURDAY. CLIPPER AREN'T USUALLY PROLIFIC SNOW
PRODUCERS IN MIDDLE TN. HOWEVER, ENSEMBLES INCREASED THE CHANCE OF
A TENTH OR TWO OF SNOW ON THE FAR UPPER CUMBERLAND PLATEAU TO
ABOUT 40-50% WITH COUNTIES ALONG THE KY STATE LINE AT ABOUT A
20-30% CHANCE OF DUSTING. IF THE UPPER PLATEAU SEES ANY OF THE
WHITE STUFF, IMPACTS SHOULD BE PRETTY MINIMAL, BUT KEEP THIS
POTENTIAL IN MIND IF YOU'RE GOING TO BE TRAVELING THROUGH THIS
AREA ON SUNDAY.
WHAT THIS CLIPPER WILL ALSO BRING WITH IT IS ANOTHER SHOT OF COLDER
AIR. MONDAY AND TUESDAY MORNINGS MIGHT SEE WIDESPREAD TEENS ACROSS
MIDDLE TN, SO ONCE YOU GET THOSE PARKAS OUT FOR SATURDAY MORNING,
DON'T PUT THEM UP. CPC SHOWS HIGH CHANCES OF BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE 8-14 DAY WINDOW. FALL MIGHT JUST BE HERE
FOR GOOD.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1135 AM CST WED NOV 27 2024
VFR CONDITIONS WILL GIVE WAY TO MVFR/IFR/AND EVEN LIFR OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH MIDDLE TN. TRIED
TO TIME THE RAINFALL WITH THE FRONT IN THE TAFS. SHOWERS STARTING
IN CKV AROUND 28/00Z BNA/MQY AROUND 28/03Z AND THE PLATEAU
(CSV/SRB) AROUND 28/04Z. WINDS WILL ALSO PICK UP AND BE GUSTY WITH
THE FRONT.
WINDS WILL START SOUTHERLY AND TURN WESTERLY AND THEN NORTHWEST
BY THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THERE COULD ALSO BE SOME LOW LEVEL WIND
SHEAR OVER THE PLATEAU THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...HOWEVER
CONFIDENCE IS NOT ALL THAT HIGH.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
NASHVILLE 60 43 49 31 / 10 90 10 0
CLARKSVILLE 55 40 48 28 / 40 90 0 0
CROSSVILLE 56 40 47 27 / 10 100 20 0
COLUMBIA 60 42 49 30 / 10 90 10 0
COOKEVILLE 58 41 46 29 / 10 90 10 0
JAMESTOWN 56 39 46 28 / 10 100 10 0
LAWRENCEBURG 61 43 48 30 / 10 90 10 0
MURFREESBORO 61 43 48 31 / 10 90 10 0
WAVERLY 55 40 48 29 / 30 90 0 0
OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...UNGER
LONG TERM....UNGER
AVIATION.....12
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