613
FXUS64 KOHX 280453
AFDOHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1053 PM CST WED NOV 27 2024
..NEW AVIATION
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 805 PM CST WED NOV 27 2024
SURFACE LOW IS CURRENTLY SITUATED OVER WEST TENNESSEE, WITH A WARM
FROM EXTENDING NORTHEASTWARD FROM THE LOW INTO MIDDLE TENNESSEE,
AND A COLD FRONT TRAILING BEHIND THE LOW CENTER. SCATTERED SHOWERS
HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS THE MID STATE, AND WE EXPECT THESE TO
PERSIST OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS AS THE SURFACE LOW TRACKS
TOWARD THE ENE ACROSS MIDDLE TENNESSEE AND DRAGS THE COLD FRONT
THROUGH. WE DON'T EXPECT THE SHOWERS TO BE HEAVY, PERHAPS A FEW
POCKETS OF MODERATE RAINFALL, BUT MOST OF THE ACTIVITY WILL BE
LIGHT. THE 00Z HRRR SHOWS ALL PRECIPITATION EXITING THE MID STATE
BY 12Z.
SHORT TERM
(REST OF TODAY THROUGH THANKSGIVING NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1127 AM CST WED NOV 27 2024
THANKSGIVING EVE IS UPON US AND WHILE I SMELL A LOT OF TURKEY, IT
AIN'T COMING FROM THIS FORECAST. ARE WE GOING TO GET SOME RAIN
TONIGHT AND MAYBE A RUMBLE OF THUNDER (SOUTH OF I-40)? YES, BUT
MODELS ARE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT PRECIPITATION WILL BE OUT OF THE
MID-STATE AND INTO EAST TN BEFORE BREAKFAST TOMORROW WITH NO SEVERE
THREAT AND NONE OF THAT WHITE STUFF. IN FACT, THE PROGRESSIVE NATURE
OF THIS SYSTEM IS ALSO CAUSING QPFS TO CONTINUE TO DWINDLE. A FEW
SPOTS EAST OF I-65 MIGHT SEE 1/2", BUT THE BULK OF THE AREA WILL BE
LUCKY TO SEE 1/4".
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1127 AM CST WED NOV 27 2024
THE BIGGER STORY WITH TONIGHT'S FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL BE TEMPERATURES,
AS WE WILL GET MULTIPLE SHOTS OF CP AIR OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS. THE FIRST ONE WILL DRIVE LOWS FRIDAY MORNING INTO THE LOW
30S AND UPPER 20S AND THIS WILL BE THE ONE EVERYBODY WILL BE
INTERESTED IN BECAUSE IT COULD BE THE FIRST TIME BNA REACHES THE
FREEZING MARK THIS FALL. CURRENT PROBS HAVE BNA BEING 32 OR
COLDER AROUND AN 80% CHANCE, SO IT'S A PRETTY GOOD BET, BUT
THERE'S ALSO A 20% CHANCE IT DOESN'T GET THERE. IF THE MERCURY
REACHES 32, WE'LL BEAT THE RECORD BY TWO DAYS. IF IT DOESN'T,
SATURDAY MORNING WILL BE A SLAM DUNK AS MORNING LOWS ARE EXPECTED
TO BE IN THE UPPER TEENS AND LOW 20S.
IF YOU SAW OUR SOCIALS YESTERDAY, I POSTED A PROBABILITY GRAPHIC OF
A TENTH OF INCH OF SNOW OR MORE SATURDAY NIGHT. THEY'RE STILL PRETTY
MEAGER WITH A CLIPPER SYSTEM EXPECTED TO SWING THROUGH THE REGION
AFTER SUNSET SATURDAY. CLIPPER AREN'T USUALLY PROLIFIC SNOW
PRODUCERS IN MIDDLE TN. HOWEVER, ENSEMBLES INCREASED THE CHANCE OF
A TENTH OR TWO OF SNOW ON THE FAR UPPER CUMBERLAND PLATEAU TO
ABOUT 40-50% WITH COUNTIES ALONG THE KY STATE LINE AT ABOUT A
20-30% CHANCE OF DUSTING. IF THE UPPER PLATEAU SEES ANY OF THE
WHITE STUFF, IMPACTS SHOULD BE PRETTY MINIMAL, BUT KEEP THIS
POTENTIAL IN MIND IF YOU'RE GOING TO BE TRAVELING THROUGH THIS
AREA ON SUNDAY.
WHAT THIS CLIPPER WILL ALSO BRING WITH IT IS ANOTHER SHOT OF COLDER
AIR. MONDAY AND TUESDAY MORNINGS MIGHT SEE WIDESPREAD TEENS ACROSS
MIDDLE TN, SO ONCE YOU GET THOSE PARKAS OUT FOR SATURDAY MORNING,
DON'T PUT THEM UP. CPC SHOWS HIGH CHANCES OF BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE 8-14 DAY WINDOW. FALL MIGHT JUST BE HERE
FOR GOOD.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1037 PM CST WED NOV 27 2024
COLD FRONT IS MAKING ITS WAY ACROSS MIDDLE TENNESSEE, WITH A BAND
OF LIGHT TO MODERATE SHOWERS RIDING JUST AHEAD OF THE SURFACE
BOUNDARY. SHOWERS WILL MOVE THROUGH INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS
BEFORE EXITING ALTOGETHER. AFTERWARDS, EXPECT MVFR/IFR CEILINGS TO
PERSIST THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT AND WELL INTO THE DAY TOMORROW.
WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY OVERNIGHT AND PART OF THURSDAY BEFORE
TAPERING OFF LATER TOMORROW.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
NASHVILLE 43 49 31 45 / 100 0 0 0
CLARKSVILLE 40 48 28 43 / 90 0 0 0
CROSSVILLE 39 46 25 39 / 100 10 0 0
COLUMBIA 41 49 29 46 / 90 0 0 0
COOKEVILLE 40 45 27 41 / 100 10 0 0
JAMESTOWN 38 45 27 39 / 100 10 0 0
LAWRENCEBURG 42 48 29 45 / 90 0 0 0
MURFREESBORO 42 48 30 45 / 90 0 0 0
WAVERLY 39 48 29 43 / 80 0 0 0
OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
UPDATE.......ROSE
SHORT TERM...UNGER
LONG TERM....UNGER
AVIATION.....ROSE
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