345
FXUS64 KOHX 280735
AFDOHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
135 AM CST THU NOV 28 2024
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 130 AM CST THU NOV 28 2024
IN THE VERY EARLY MORNING HOURS THIS THANKSGIVING, SHOWERS
ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND COLD FRONT WERE MOVING
ACROSS MIDDLE TENNESSEE. BY DAYBREAK, THE LOW CENTER WILL BE OVER
WEST VIRGINIA, AND THE TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL HAVE MOVED
COMPLETELY THROUGH THE MID STATE. MEASURABLE RAINFALL WILL BE DONE
BY DAYBREAK, BUT SCATTERED DRIPS AND DRIZZLE WILL LINGER FOR A
WHILE INTO THE MID MORNING HOURS, AND PERHAPS INTO THE EARLY
AFTERNOON FOR THE PLATEAU. CLOUDS WILL BE SLOW TO MOVE OUT FROM
WEST TO EAST AND IT WILL FEEL QUITE CHILLY. TEMPERATURES WILL HOLD
MOSTLY IN THE 40S WITH A STEADY NORTHWEST WIND.
COLD AND DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE PUSHING INTO THE AREA TONIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY. WE ARE FORECASTING THE FIRST FREEZE OF THIS FALL
SEASON LATE TONIGHT FOR BNA, AND DESPITE SUNSHINE, HIGHS ON FRIDAY
WILL BE 10 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 130 AM CST THU NOV 28 2024
COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO CONTROL OUR WX FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY WITH THE COLDEST NIGHT SO FAR THIS FALL. LOWS NEAR
20 WILL BE COMMON. SATURDAY WILL ONCE AGAIN BE 10 TO 15 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL FOR HIGHS.
A CLIPPER SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE REGION LATE SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AND SATURDAY NIGHT WITH SOME SNOWFLAKE POTENTIAL.
LATEST MODELS ARE TRENDING TOWARD A MORE NORTHERLY TRACK WITH MOST
OF THE ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE UP ALONG THE OHIO RIVER. THE LATEST
ENSEMBLE DATA SHOWS LESS THAN A 10 PERCENT CHANCE FOR ANYTHING
MORE THAN FLURRIES ALONG OUR NORTHERN TIER OF COUNTIES. HOPES ARE
SLIGHTLY HIGHER FOR THE UPPER CUMBERLAND WITH A 20 PERCENT CHANCE
OF A DUSTING, BUT FOR MOST OF US THE QUICK PASSAGE WITH LIMITED
MOISTURE WILL BRING JUST A FEW FLURRIES. PERHAPS MORE
SIGNIFICANTLY, THE SYSTEM WILL REINFORCE THE COLD AIR. HIGHS
SUNDAY WILL STRUGGLE TO CLIMB OUT OF THE 30S, AND LOW SUNDAY NIGHT
AND EVEN MONDAY NIGHT WILL PLUNGE DOWN INTO THE TEENS FOR MANY
AREAS.
LOOKING AHEAD, BELOW NORMAL TEMPS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH NEXT WEEK
WITH A COLD AND DRY NORTHWEST FLOW. MODELS ARE BRINGING SOME SMALL
SHOWER CHANCES AROUND MIDWEEK AS ADDITIONAL COLD FRONTS COME OUR
WAY, BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW FOR ANY SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION
THROUGH DAY 7 GIVEN THE EXPECTED DRYNESS OF THE AIR.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1037 PM CST WED NOV 27 2024
COLD FRONT IS MAKING ITS WAY ACROSS MIDDLE TENNESSEE, WITH A BAND
OF LIGHT TO MODERATE SHOWERS RIDING JUST AHEAD OF THE SURFACE
BOUNDARY. SHOWERS WILL MOVE THROUGH INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS
BEFORE EXITING ALTOGETHER. AFTERWARDS, EXPECT MVFR/IFR CEILINGS TO
PERSIST THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT AND WELL INTO THE DAY TOMORROW.
WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY OVERNIGHT AND PART OF THURSDAY BEFORE
TAPERING OFF LATER TOMORROW.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
NASHVILLE 49 31 45 25 / 10 0 0 0
CLARKSVILLE 48 28 43 24 / 0 0 0 0
CROSSVILLE 46 25 39 17 / 10 0 0 0
COLUMBIA 49 29 46 21 / 10 0 0 0
COOKEVILLE 45 27 41 21 / 10 0 0 0
JAMESTOWN 45 27 39 19 / 10 0 0 0
LAWRENCEBURG 48 29 45 21 / 10 0 0 0
MURFREESBORO 48 30 45 21 / 10 0 0 0
WAVERLY 48 29 43 24 / 0 0 0 0
OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...13
LONG TERM....13
AVIATION.....ROSE
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