027
FXUS64 KOHX 281044
AFDOHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
444 AM CST THU NOV 28 2024
..NEW AVIATION
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 130 AM CST THU NOV 28 2024
IN THE VERY EARLY MORNING HOURS THIS THANKSGIVING, SHOWERS
ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND COLD FRONT WERE MOVING
ACROSS MIDDLE TENNESSEE. BY DAYBREAK, THE LOW CENTER WILL BE OVER
WEST VIRGINIA, AND THE TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL HAVE MOVED
COMPLETELY THROUGH THE MID STATE. MEASURABLE RAINFALL WILL BE DONE
BY DAYBREAK, BUT SCATTERED DRIPS AND DRIZZLE WILL LINGER FOR A
WHILE INTO THE MID MORNING HOURS, AND PERHAPS INTO THE EARLY
AFTERNOON FOR THE PLATEAU. CLOUDS WILL BE SLOW TO MOVE OUT FROM
WEST TO EAST AND IT WILL FEEL QUITE CHILLY. TEMPERATURES WILL HOLD
MOSTLY IN THE 40S WITH A STEADY NORTHWEST WIND.
COLD AND DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE PUSHING INTO THE AREA TONIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY. WE ARE FORECASTING THE FIRST FREEZE OF THIS FALL
SEASON LATE TONIGHT FOR BNA, AND DESPITE SUNSHINE, HIGHS ON FRIDAY
WILL BE 10 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 130 AM CST THU NOV 28 2024
COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO CONTROL OUR WX FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY WITH THE COLDEST NIGHT SO FAR THIS FALL. LOWS NEAR
20 WILL BE COMMON. SATURDAY WILL ONCE AGAIN BE 10 TO 15 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL FOR HIGHS.
A CLIPPER SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE REGION LATE SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AND SATURDAY NIGHT WITH SOME SNOWFLAKE POTENTIAL.
LATEST MODELS ARE TRENDING TOWARD A MORE NORTHERLY TRACK WITH MOST
OF THE ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE UP ALONG THE OHIO RIVER. THE LATEST
ENSEMBLE DATA SHOWS LESS THAN A 10 PERCENT CHANCE FOR ANYTHING
MORE THAN FLURRIES ALONG OUR NORTHERN TIER OF COUNTIES. HOPES ARE
SLIGHTLY HIGHER FOR THE UPPER CUMBERLAND WITH A 20 PERCENT CHANCE
OF A DUSTING, BUT FOR MOST OF US THE QUICK PASSAGE WITH LIMITED
MOISTURE WILL BRING JUST A FEW FLURRIES. PERHAPS MORE
SIGNIFICANTLY, THE SYSTEM WILL REINFORCE THE COLD AIR. HIGHS
SUNDAY WILL STRUGGLE TO CLIMB OUT OF THE 30S, AND LOW SUNDAY NIGHT
AND EVEN MONDAY NIGHT WILL PLUNGE DOWN INTO THE TEENS FOR MANY
AREAS.
LOOKING AHEAD, BELOW NORMAL TEMPS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH NEXT WEEK
WITH A COLD AND DRY NORTHWEST FLOW. MODELS ARE BRINGING SOME SMALL
SHOWER CHANCES AROUND MIDWEEK AS ADDITIONAL COLD FRONTS COME OUR
WAY, BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW FOR ANY SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION
THROUGH DAY 7 GIVEN THE EXPECTED DRYNESS OF THE AIR.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 443 AM CST THU NOV 28 2024
SHOWERS HAVE MOVED EAST OF THE TERMINALS WITH WNW/NW WINDS BEHIND
THE COLD FRONT. PERIODIC DRIZZLE CANNOT BE RULED OUT AT SRB/CSV
THIS MORNING, OTHERWISE IFR/MVFR STRATUS WILL IMPACT THE
TERMINALS THROUGH THE MORNING. THE STRATUS SHOULD SCATTER THIS
AFTERNOON AT CKV/BNA/MQY ALLOWING FOR VFR CONDITIONS TO RETURN.
THERE IS UNCERTAINTY THIS EVENING IF THE MVFR STRATUS WILL FILL IN
AGAIN AT BNA/MQY. FOR NOW, A SCT DECK WAS MENTIONED AT THOSE
TERMINALS. CSV SHOULD REMAIN MVFR FOR THE ENTIRE TAF PERIOD. NW
WINDS WILL DECREASE LATE THIS AFTERNOON TO AROUND 5-7 KTS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
NASHVILLE 50 30 44 26 / 10 0 0 0
CLARKSVILLE 48 27 43 23 / 0 0 0 0
CROSSVILLE 45 24 39 17 / 10 0 0 0
COLUMBIA 49 28 45 21 / 10 0 0 0
COOKEVILLE 45 27 40 21 / 10 0 0 0
JAMESTOWN 45 25 39 19 / 10 0 0 0
LAWRENCEBURG 48 28 44 21 / 10 0 0 0
MURFREESBORO 49 29 45 21 / 10 0 0 0
WAVERLY 49 28 44 24 / 0 0 0 0
OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...13
LONG TERM....13
AVIATION.....REAGAN
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