919
FXUS64 KOHX 281701
AFDOHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1101 AM CST THU NOV 28 2024
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
SHORT TERM
(REST OF TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1028 AM CST THU NOV 28 2024
HAPPY THANKSGIVING! OBS THIS MORNING SHOW THAT THE COLD FRONT HAS
COMPLETELY MOVED THROUGH MIDDLE TN WITH CURRENT TEMPERATURES
CHILLY IN THE MID-40S. IN THE WAKE OF THIS FRONT, THE RAIN HAS
ALSO MOVED OUT OF THE AREA, LEAVING BEHIND A BLANKET OF LOW
CLOUDS. THESE CLOUDS WILL BE SLOW TO MOVE OUT OF THE AREA, AND
WITH GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS, TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE TO WARM UP
MUCH MORE THIS AFTERNOON WITH HIGHS STAYING IN THE 40S.
A COLD NIGHT IS AHEAD AS TEMPERATURES FALL INTO THE 20S AREAWIDE.
THE FIRST FREEZE OF THE SEASON LOOKS TO FINALLY BE IN STORE FOR
BNA WITH A FORECAST LOW OF 30. QUIET WEATHER IS ON TAP FOR FRIDAY
WITH DRY NORTHWEST FLOW CONTINUING. CLOUD COVER WILL CLEAR, BUT
DESPITE THE SUNSHINE, IT'LL STILL BE CHILLY WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S.
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1028 AM CST THU NOV 28 2024
EVEN COLDER MORNINGS ARE AHEAD AS LOW TEMPERATURES FRIDAY NIGHT
FALL INTO THE LOW AND MID-20S. WE ARE WATCHING A TROUGH TRACK TO
OUR NORTH SATURDAY, BRINGING THE POSSIBILITY OF SNOW TO THE
NORTHERN PLATEAU THAT NIGHT. HOWEVER, ANY CHANCE FOR ACCUMULATING
SNOW IS DWINDLING AS THIS SYSTEM ONLY CLIPS MIDDLE TN WITH NO
SUBSTANTIAL MOISTURE IN PLACE. CHANCES FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW OF AT
LEAST A TENTH OF AN INCH ARE LOW AT LESS THAN 20% FOR NORTHERN
PLATEAU LOCATIONS NEAR THE KY/TN STATE LINE. SO WHILE SOME MAY BE
LUCKY ENOUGH TO SEE FLURRIES SATURDAY NIGHT, THE BIGGER STORY WILL
BE A REINFORCING SHOT OF COLDER AIR. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE THE
COLDEST OF THE SEASON SO FAR WITH TEMPS IN THE TEENS TO LOW 20S.
QUIET START TO THE NEW WORK WEEK IS EXPECTED WITH BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION
COMES WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY AS ANOTHER TROUGH TRACKS TO OUR
NORTH. CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN RAIN CHANCES WITH THIS SYSTEM AS
MODELS DISAGREE ON HOW FAR SOUTH IT WILL DIG. FOR NOW, IT DOESN'T
LOOK TO BE ANYTHING SIGNIFICANT FOR OUR AREA AS PROBABILITIES OF
RECEIVING EVEN 0.25 INCHES IF LOW AT LESS THAN 20%.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 443 AM CST THU NOV 28 2024
SHOWERS HAVE MOVED EAST OF THE TERMINALS WITH WNW/NW WINDS BEHIND
THE COLD FRONT. PERIODIC DRIZZLE CANNOT BE RULED OUT AT SRB/CSV
THIS MORNING, OTHERWISE IFR/MVFR STRATUS WILL IMPACT THE
TERMINALS THROUGH THE MORNING. THE STRATUS SHOULD SCATTER THIS
AFTERNOON AT CKV/BNA/MQY ALLOWING FOR VFR CONDITIONS TO RETURN.
THERE IS UNCERTAINTY THIS EVENING IF THE MVFR STRATUS WILL FILL IN
AGAIN AT BNA/MQY. FOR NOW, A SCT DECK WAS MENTIONED AT THOSE
TERMINALS. CSV SHOULD REMAIN MVFR FOR THE ENTIRE TAF PERIOD. NW
WINDS WILL DECREASE LATE THIS AFTERNOON TO AROUND 5-7 KTS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
NASHVILLE 50 30 45 26 / 0 0 0 0
CLARKSVILLE 48 28 43 23 / 0 0 0 0
CROSSVILLE 45 24 39 17 / 10 0 0 0
COLUMBIA 49 28 45 21 / 0 0 0 0
COOKEVILLE 45 26 40 21 / 10 0 0 0
JAMESTOWN 45 26 38 19 / 10 0 0 0
LAWRENCEBURG 48 28 45 20 / 0 0 0 0
MURFREESBORO 49 29 45 21 / 0 0 0 0
WAVERLY 49 28 43 24 / 0 0 0 0
OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...CLEMENTS
LONG TERM....CLEMENTS
AVIATION.....REAGAN
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