441
FXUS64 KOHX 290134
AFDOHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
734 PM CST THU NOV 28 2024
..NEW UPDATE
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 728 PM CST THU NOV 28 2024
LOW CLOUDS CONTINUE TO BLANKET THE MID STATE WITH THE EXCEPTION OF
A TINY SLOT OF CLEARING JUST EDGING INTO THE WAYNESBORO/
LAWRENCEBURG AREA. THE 00Z SOUNDING FROM OHX SHOWS A DRY PROFILE
ABOVE 850 MB, SO THE EXISTING CLOUD DECK ISN'T ALL THAT THICK.
STILL, WE DON'T EXPECT TO SEE A GREAT DEAL OF CLEARING UNTIL VERY
LATE TONIGHT AND ESPECIALLY TOMORROW THROUGHOUT THE DAY AS THE
UPPER TROUGH FINALLY SWINGS THROUGH THE AREA. WINDS WILL REMAIN
SOMEWHAT GUSTY TOMORROW OWING TO A STRONG SURFACE PRESSURE
GRADIENT, BUT HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST WILL AT
LEAST KEEP US DRY, ALBEIT QUITE CHILLY FOR THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE.
SHORT TERM
(REST OF TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1028 AM CST THU NOV 28 2024
HAPPY THANKSGIVING! OBS THIS MORNING SHOW THAT THE COLD FRONT HAS
COMPLETELY MOVED THROUGH MIDDLE TN WITH CURRENT TEMPERATURES
CHILLY IN THE MID-40S. IN THE WAKE OF THIS FRONT, THE RAIN HAS
ALSO MOVED OUT OF THE AREA, LEAVING BEHIND A BLANKET OF LOW
CLOUDS. THESE CLOUDS WILL BE SLOW TO MOVE OUT OF THE AREA, AND
WITH GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS, TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE TO WARM UP
MUCH MORE THIS AFTERNOON WITH HIGHS STAYING IN THE 40S.
A COLD NIGHT IS AHEAD AS TEMPERATURES FALL INTO THE 20S AREAWIDE.
THE FIRST FREEZE OF THE SEASON LOOKS TO FINALLY BE IN STORE FOR
BNA WITH A FORECAST LOW OF 30. QUIET WEATHER IS ON TAP FOR FRIDAY
WITH DRY NORTHWEST FLOW CONTINUING. CLOUD COVER WILL CLEAR, BUT
DESPITE THE SUNSHINE, IT'LL STILL BE CHILLY WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S.
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1028 AM CST THU NOV 28 2024
EVEN COLDER MORNINGS ARE AHEAD AS LOW TEMPERATURES FRIDAY NIGHT
FALL INTO THE LOW AND MID-20S. WE ARE WATCHING A TROUGH TRACK TO
OUR NORTH SATURDAY, BRINGING THE POSSIBILITY OF SNOW TO THE
NORTHERN PLATEAU THAT NIGHT. HOWEVER, ANY CHANCE FOR ACCUMULATING
SNOW IS DWINDLING AS THIS SYSTEM ONLY CLIPS MIDDLE TN WITH NO
SUBSTANTIAL MOISTURE IN PLACE. CHANCES FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW OF AT
LEAST A TENTH OF AN INCH ARE LOW AT LESS THAN 20% FOR NORTHERN
PLATEAU LOCATIONS NEAR THE KY/TN STATE LINE. SO WHILE SOME MAY BE
LUCKY ENOUGH TO SEE FLURRIES SATURDAY NIGHT, THE BIGGER STORY WILL
BE A REINFORCING SHOT OF COLDER AIR. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE THE
COLDEST OF THE SEASON SO FAR WITH TEMPS IN THE TEENS TO LOW 20S.
QUIET START TO THE NEW WORK WEEK IS EXPECTED WITH BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION
COMES WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY AS ANOTHER TROUGH TRACKS TO OUR
NORTH. CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN RAIN CHANCES WITH THIS SYSTEM AS
MODELS DISAGREE ON HOW FAR SOUTH IT WILL DIG. FOR NOW, IT DOESN'T
LOOK TO BE ANYTHING SIGNIFICANT FOR OUR AREA AS PROBABILITIES OF
RECEIVING EVEN 0.25 INCHES IF LOW AT LESS THAN 20%.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 520 PM CST THU NOV 28 2024
MVFR CIGS AT BNA/MQY WILL CONTINUE FOR A FEW MORE HOURS BEFORE
BECOMING VFR AFTER 03Z, ALTHOUGH BRIEF MVFR CIGS ARE POSSIBLE
OVERNIGHT. FOR CKV, CIGS HAVE ALREADY GONE VFR WHICH SHOULD
CONTINUE INTO TOMORROW MORNING WHEN SKC ARRIVES. AT CSV/SRB, MVFR
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT BEFORE BECOMING VFR BY LATE FRIDAY
MORNING. NORTHWEST WINDS 4-8 KTS OVERNIGHT WILL INCREASE ON
FRIDAY MORNING WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KNOTS AT TIMES.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
NASHVILLE 30 45 25 47 / 0 0 0 0
CLARKSVILLE 28 42 24 44 / 0 0 0 10
CROSSVILLE 25 38 17 42 / 0 0 0 0
COLUMBIA 28 45 22 48 / 0 0 0 0
COOKEVILLE 27 40 20 41 / 0 0 0 0
JAMESTOWN 25 38 19 40 / 0 0 0 0
LAWRENCEBURG 28 45 20 47 / 0 0 0 0
MURFREESBORO 29 45 21 47 / 0 0 0 0
WAVERLY 28 43 25 46 / 0 0 0 0
OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
UPDATE.......ROSE
SHORT TERM...CLEMENTS
LONG TERM....CLEMENTS
AVIATION.....SHAMBURGER
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