399
FXUS64 KOHX 301730 AAB
AFDOHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1130 AM CST SAT NOV 30 2024
..NEW AVIATION
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 127 AM CST SAT NOV 30 2024
COLD AIR CONTINUES TO FILTER INTO MIDDLE TENNESSEE EARLY THIS
SATURDAY MORNING. BNA HAS FINALLY HIT FREEZING FOR THE FIRST TIME
THIS FALL SEASON. THE AIRPORT DIPPED TO 31 JUST BEFORE MIDNIGHT
(NOVEMBER 29), SETTING A NEW RECORD FOR THE LATEST FIRST FREEZE.
THE PREVIOUS RECORD WAS NOVEMBER 27, 2009. UNDER DRY HIGH
PRESSURE, TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO FALL WITH DAYBREAK
READINGS IN THE UPPER TEENS TO MID 20S.
DAYTIME WILL BRING A FRIGID BUT SUNNY START, THEN CLOUDS WILL
INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY, ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOON AS A CLIPPER
SYSTEM SWINGS ACROSS MO/IA AND MOVES ALONG THE OHIO RIVER. MODELS OVER
THE PAST FEW DAYS HAVE BEEN KEEPING MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION WITH
THIS SYSTEM UP TO OUR NORTH AND THIS PATTERN CONTINUES TODAY.
THERE ARE WINTER ADVISORIES IN PLACE FOR LIGHT SNOW FROM MO,
ACROSS NORTHERN KY INTO WV, SO KEEP THAT IN MIND IF YOU HAVE
TRAVEL PLANS TOWARD THE NORTH. HERE IN MIDDLE TENNESSEE, ONLY A
FEW OUTLYING MODELS SHOW ANYTHING MORE THAN TRACE PRECIPITATION
AMOUNTS THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. FORECAST ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE
PROFILES LOOK QUITE DRY BELOW 800MB, SO WE WILL INCLUDE JUST THE
POSSIBILITY FOR SOME PASSING SPRINKLES OR FLURRIES WITH NO
ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS OUR NORTHERN SECTIONS. HIGHS TODAY WILL REACH
THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S WITH LOWS TONIGHT MOSTLY UPPER 20S AND
LOWER 30S.
BEHIND THE CLIPPER SYSTEM, ANOTHER COLD, DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL
MOVE IN WITH EVEN COLDER AIR, ESPECIALLY FOR SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY WHEN MANY AREAS WILL HAVE LOWS IN THE TEENS AND HIGHS ONLY
IN THE 30S. NOTHING RECORD SETTING, BUT IT WILL BE 15 TO 20
DEGREES BLOW NORMAL. BRRRRRRR!!!
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 127 AM CST SAT NOV 30 2024
THE EXTENDED FORECAST CONTINUES TO SHOW BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
AND LITTLE IF ANY PRECIPITATION. THERE WILL BE AT LEAST A COUPLE
OF LATE WEEK COLD FRONTS THAT COULD CONTAIN SOME LIGHT SCATTERED
PRECIPITATION. MODELS SPREADS ARE PRETTY WIDE REGARDING THE TIMING
OF THESE FEATURES AND EXACT THERMAL PROFILES. THE RESULT IS SOME
SCATTERED WINTRY PRECIPITATION SHOWING UP DURING THE NIGHTS IN
THE NBM. GIVEN THE DRY PATTERN AND LOW POPS, ADJUSTMENTS WILL BE
MADE TO SUPPRESS THESE SEEMINGLY INCONGRUENT TEMP AND PRECIP
PATTERNS. BOTTOM LINE, MAYBE A FEW PASSING RAIN SHOWERS AHEAD OF
EACH FRONT.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1127 AM CST SAT NOV 30 2024
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD ALTHOUGH
THERE'S A LOW POSSIBILITY OF SOME MVFR CEILINGS AROUND 2500FT
BETWEEN 12Z-16Z BUT NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO PUT IN THE FORECAST AT
THIS TIME. WINDS WILL START OUT LIGHT AND SOUTHWESTERLY BUT
BECOME NORTHWESTERLY AFTER 12Z WITH A WEAK COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
NASHVILLE 46 33 46 24 / 10 0 0 10
CLARKSVILLE 43 29 41 21 / 20 10 0 10
CROSSVILLE 41 26 42 15 / 10 10 0 0
COLUMBIA 48 30 47 20 / 0 0 0 10
COOKEVILLE 41 29 43 18 / 10 10 0 0
JAMESTOWN 39 28 41 17 / 10 10 0 0
LAWRENCEBURG 47 29 48 19 / 0 0 0 0
MURFREESBORO 46 30 47 20 / 10 0 0 10
WAVERLY 45 31 43 22 / 10 10 0 10
OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...13
LONG TERM....13
AVIATION.....HURLEY
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