114  
FXUS64 KOHX 301742  
AFDOHX  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN  
1142 AM CST SAT NOV 30 2024  
   
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
 
 
   
SHORT TERM
 
 
(REST OF TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)  
ISSUED AT 1137 AM CST SAT NOV 30 2024  
 
TEMPERATURES ARE WARMING UP NICELY THIS MORNING CONSIDERING MOST GOT  
DOWN INTO LOW 20S! CURRENT OBSERVATIONS SHOW A RANGE OF 32 TO 40  
DEGREES. SNOW IS FALLING ACROSS CENTRAL MISSOURI RIGHT NOW AND  
THE MOVEMENT IS GENERALLY ESE. THE LATEST NBM HAS BROUGHT A TOUCH  
HIGHER POP CHANCES (20%) ACROSS THE TN/KY BORDER STARTING THIS  
AFTERNOON. GIVEN THE SOUTHERLY COMPONENT OF THE SYSTEM'S  
MOVEMENT, I THINK THAT'S REASONABLE TO MAINTAIN FOR TODAY'S  
FORECAST. IT WILL STILL LIKELY BE SNOW FLURRIES FALLING MAINLY  
ACROSS AREAS NORTH OF I-40. TEMPERATURES WILL BE TOO WARM THIS  
AFTERNOON FOR ANY IMPACTS. OUR 12Z SOUNDING ALSO SHOWED A  
CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF DRY AIR IN THE SNOW GROWTH REGION (-12 C TO  
-17 C), SO WE'LL NEED THINGS TO MOISTEN UP A LOT MORE IF WE EVEN  
WANT TO SEE FLURRIES.  
 
CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE THROUGH THE DAY AND  
THIS WILL KEEP LOWS TONIGHT A BIT "WARMER" THAN LAST NIGHT: MID 20S  
ALONG THE PLATEAU AND 29-32 ACROSS THE REST OF THE AREA.  
REGARDLESS, STILL AT OR BELOW FREEZING FOR ALMOST EVERYONE.  
 
SUNDAY WILL FEATURE CLEARING SKIES AND AN INCREASING  
NORTHWESTERLY WIND, SETTING THE STAGE FOR ANOTHER VERY COLD NIGHT  
ACROSS MIDDLE TENNESSEE WITH LOWS IN THE TEENS AGAIN ALONG THE  
PLATEAU AND LOW TO MID 20S ACROSS THE REST OF THE AREA.  
 

 
   
LONG TERM
 
 
(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY)  
ISSUED AT 1137 AM CST SAT NOV 30 2024  
 
UPPER-LEVEL FLOW WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE NORTHWEST, HELPING INFUSE  
A SERIES OF MOSTLY DRY COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE  
WEEK. DETERMINISTIC MODELS SHOW QUITE THE SPREAD IN PRECIP CHANCES  
AND WITH SO MUCH UNCERTAINTY, NOT MUCH CHANGE MADE TO THE  
EXTENDED. COLD AND MOSTLY DRY IS THE BIG PICTURE RIGHT NOW,  
THOUGH. IT DOES LOOK LIKE WE'LL SEE DAYTIME TEMPERATURES REACH  
BACK INTO THE UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S NEXT WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY,  
BUT ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL PUSH TEMPS BACK DOWN INTO THE LOW 40S  
BY FRIDAY.  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
 
(18Z TAFS)  
ISSUED AT 1127 AM CST SAT NOV 30 2024  
 
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD ALTHOUGH  
THERE'S A LOW POSSIBILITY OF SOME MVFR CEILINGS AROUND 2500FT  
BETWEEN 12Z-16Z BUT NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO PUT IN THE FORECAST AT  
THIS TIME. WINDS WILL START OUT LIGHT AND SOUTHWESTERLY BUT  
BECOME NORTHWESTERLY AFTER 12Z WITH A WEAK COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.  
 

 
   
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
 
 
NASHVILLE 46 33 46 24 / 10 0 0 10  
CLARKSVILLE 43 29 41 21 / 20 10 0 10  
CROSSVILLE 41 26 42 15 / 10 10 0 0  
COLUMBIA 48 30 47 20 / 0 0 0 10  
COOKEVILLE 41 29 43 18 / 10 10 0 0  
JAMESTOWN 39 28 41 17 / 10 10 0 0  
LAWRENCEBURG 47 29 48 19 / 0 0 0 0  
MURFREESBORO 46 30 47 20 / 10 0 0 10  
WAVERLY 45 31 43 22 / 10 10 0 10  
 

 
   
OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
NONE.  

 
 

 
 
SHORT TERM...BAGGETT  
LONG TERM....BAGGETT  
AVIATION.....HURLEY  
 
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