092
FXUS64 KOHX 010447
AFDOHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1047 PM CST SAT NOV 30 2024
..NEW AVIATION
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 831 PM CST SAT NOV 30 2024
A LONG WAVE TROUGH IS SET UP OVER THE EASTERN US WITH A SHORT
WAVE PASSING TO OUR NORTH. WE ARE SEEING SOME LIGHT RADAR RETURNS
FROM THIS OVER OUR AREA WITH PLENTY OF COLD AIR IN PLACE. OUR DEW
POINT DEPRESSIONS ARE QUITE LARGE THOUGH (10+ DEGREES) AND THE 00Z
OHX SOUNDING SHOWS PLENTY OF DRY AIR IN THE LOW LEVELS. MOST OF
THIS ACTIVITY WILL NOT REACH THE GROUND BUT CAN'T RULE OUT A FEW
FLURRIES INTO THE EARLY OVERNIGHT. NO ACCUMULATION OR TRAVEL
ISSUES. CLOUD COVER WILL STICK AROUND TONIGHT AND THAT WILL KEEP
THINGS WARMER THAN LAST NIGHT BUT IT WILL STILL BE COLD WITH LOWS
IN THE MID 20S TO LOWER 30S. CLOUD COVER WILL LINGER TOMORROW
MORNING BUT WE SHOULD START TO SEE SOME CLEARING IN THE AFTERNOON.
SHORT TERM
(REST OF TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1137 AM CST SAT NOV 30 2024
TEMPERATURES ARE WARMING UP NICELY THIS MORNING CONSIDERING MOST GOT
DOWN INTO LOW 20S! CURRENT OBSERVATIONS SHOW A RANGE OF 32 TO 40
DEGREES. SNOW IS FALLING ACROSS CENTRAL MISSOURI RIGHT NOW AND
THE MOVEMENT IS GENERALLY ESE. THE LATEST NBM HAS BROUGHT A TOUCH
HIGHER POP CHANCES (20%) ACROSS THE TN/KY BORDER STARTING THIS
AFTERNOON. GIVEN THE SOUTHERLY COMPONENT OF THE SYSTEM'S
MOVEMENT, I THINK THAT'S REASONABLE TO MAINTAIN FOR TODAY'S
FORECAST. IT WILL STILL LIKELY BE SNOW FLURRIES FALLING MAINLY
ACROSS AREAS NORTH OF I-40. TEMPERATURES WILL BE TOO WARM THIS
AFTERNOON FOR ANY IMPACTS. OUR 12Z SOUNDING ALSO SHOWED A
CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF DRY AIR IN THE SNOW GROWTH REGION (-12 C TO
-17 C), SO WE'LL NEED THINGS TO MOISTEN UP A LOT MORE IF WE EVEN
WANT TO SEE FLURRIES.
CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE THROUGH THE DAY AND
THIS WILL KEEP LOWS TONIGHT A BIT "WARMER" THAN LAST NIGHT: MID 20S
ALONG THE PLATEAU AND 29-32 ACROSS THE REST OF THE AREA.
REGARDLESS, STILL AT OR BELOW FREEZING FOR ALMOST EVERYONE.
SUNDAY WILL FEATURE CLEARING SKIES AND AN INCREASING
NORTHWESTERLY WIND, SETTING THE STAGE FOR ANOTHER VERY COLD NIGHT
ACROSS MIDDLE TENNESSEE WITH LOWS IN THE TEENS AGAIN ALONG THE
PLATEAU AND LOW TO MID 20S ACROSS THE REST OF THE AREA.
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1137 AM CST SAT NOV 30 2024
UPPER-LEVEL FLOW WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE NORTHWEST, HELPING INFUSE
A SERIES OF MOSTLY DRY COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE
WEEK. DETERMINISTIC MODELS SHOW QUITE THE SPREAD IN PRECIP CHANCES
AND WITH SO MUCH UNCERTAINTY, NOT MUCH CHANGE MADE TO THE
EXTENDED. COLD AND MOSTLY DRY IS THE BIG PICTURE RIGHT NOW,
THOUGH. IT DOES LOOK LIKE WE'LL SEE DAYTIME TEMPERATURES REACH
BACK INTO THE UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S NEXT WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY,
BUT ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL PUSH TEMPS BACK DOWN INTO THE LOW 40S
BY FRIDAY.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1045 PM CST SAT NOV 30 2024
LARGELY VFR CONDITIONS OVER THE NEXT 24 HRS. SOME SNOW FLURRIES
ARE MOVING THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT, BUT THEY WILL NOT HAVE ANY
SIGNIFICANT IMPACT VSBYS. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS TONIGHT,
BECOMING NW LESS THAN 10KTS AFTER 12Z.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
NASHVILLE 33 45 24 40 / 0 0 0 10
CLARKSVILLE 30 42 23 37 / 10 0 0 20
CROSSVILLE 26 42 15 36 / 10 0 0 10
COLUMBIA 30 47 20 44 / 0 0 0 0
COOKEVILLE 29 42 19 36 / 10 0 0 20
JAMESTOWN 28 40 17 35 / 10 0 0 20
LAWRENCEBURG 30 47 19 43 / 0 0 0 0
MURFREESBORO 30 46 20 42 / 0 0 0 10
WAVERLY 30 43 23 41 / 0 0 0 10
OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
UPDATE.......MUELLER
SHORT TERM...BAGGETT
LONG TERM....BAGGETT
AVIATION.....CRAVENS
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