181
FXUS64 KOHX 011118
AFDOHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
518 AM CST SUN DEC 1 2024
..NEW AVIATION
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 140 AM CST SUN DEC 1 2024
THROUGH MONDAY, VERY CHILLY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE WITH A DEEP
LONGWAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN STATES. INTERMITTENT DISTURBANCES
AND SURFACE FRONTS WILL COME DOWN IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW. ONE SUCH
DISTURBANCE IS CURRENTLY CROSSING THE REGION PRODUCING A SWATH OF
LIGHT SNOW ALONG THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY. HERE IS MIDDLE TENNESSEE,
THIS SYSTEM IS PRODUCING AREAS OF CLOUDS AND A FEW STRAY
FLURRIES. THE CLOUDS HAVE HELPED KEEP OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES
WARMER THAN LAST NIGHT.
FOR THE DAYTIME, WE WILL KEEP MAINLY CLOUDY SKIES THROUGH THE
MORNING, THEN INCREASING SUNSHINE IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS WILL BE
SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY, IN THE 40S. PASSAGE OF A SURFACE COLD FRONT
TODAY WILL BRING A REINFORCING SHOT OF CHILLY AIR FOR TONIGHT.
LOWS WILL DROP BACK AGAIN, MUCH LIKE FRIDAY NIGHT, INTO THE TEENS
TO LOWER 20S.
MONDAY HAS BEGUN TO LOOK MUCH MORE INTERESTING AS ANOTHER
DISTURBANCE COMES AT US FROM THE NORTHWEST. THE LATEST MODELS ARE
IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THIS DISTURBANCE WILL BE A LITTLE
STRONGER AND A LITTLE FARTHER FARTHER SOUTH THAN PREVIOUSLY
EXPECTED. THE RESULT WILL BE A BETTER CHANCE FOR SNOWFLAKES THAN
WE HAVE HAD THIS WEEKEND. SHORT RANGE MODELS HAVE BUMPED UP SNOW
POTENTIAL, SHOWING A 30 TO 50 PERCENT CHANCE FOR A DUSTING OF SNOW
ALONG AND NORTHEAST OF I-24. MODELS ARE INDICATING A LOW END
EVENT WITH VERY LOW PROBABILITIES FOR 1+ INCH AMOUNTS, CONFINED
TO THE HIGH ELEVATIONS OF THE UPPER CUMBERLAND. THE BEST CHANCE
FOR SNOW SHOWERS MONDAY WILL BE IN THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING. WE ARE NOT LOOKING FOR MAJOR TRAVEL IMPACTS AS DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE ABOVE FREEZING, BUT A LIGHT
COATING OF SNOW COULD BE LEFT IN SOME SPOTS AS TEMPERATURES FALL
TO FREEZING MONDAY EVENING. THE MAIN LOCATIONS FOR THIS POTENTIAL
WOULD BE ACROSS OUR NORTHEAST COUNTIES, ESPECIALLY THE UPPER
CUMBERLAND.
LONG TERM
(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 140 AM CST SUN DEC 1 2024
DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL TAKE OVER LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT WITH THE COLDEST CONDITIONS OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. LOWS IN
THE TEENS TO LOWER 20S WILL BE COMMON WITH HIGHS STRUGGLING TO GET
ABOVE 40.
TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE A LITTLE MIDWEEK AHEAD OF ANOTHER COLD
FRONT. THE FRONT WILL COME THROUGH A SMALL CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER DIP IN TEMPERATURES FOR THE END OF THE WEEK.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 516 AM CST SUN DEC 1 2024
FROPA IS ON THE WAY AND WILL BRING A MVFR CLOUD DECK TO
CKV AT THE TOP OF THE HOUR AND SPREAD TO BNA/MQY OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF HOURS. SHOULD ONLY REMAIN MVFR FOR A FEW HOURS AT EACH
TERMINALS BEFORE SKC RETURNS. CSV/SRB WILL GET SOME LOWER CLOUDS,
BUT SHOULD REMAIN VFR. WINDS WILL BE LESS THAN 10 KTS BUT SHIFT
TO THE NORTH WITH THE FROPA THIS MORNING.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
NASHVILLE 45 24 40 23 / 0 0 40 10
CLARKSVILLE 42 23 36 19 / 0 0 30 0
CROSSVILLE 42 15 36 15 / 0 0 50 20
COLUMBIA 47 20 42 19 / 0 0 20 10
COOKEVILLE 42 19 36 18 / 0 0 50 30
JAMESTOWN 40 17 33 17 / 0 0 50 30
LAWRENCEBURG 47 19 42 18 / 0 0 20 10
MURFREESBORO 46 20 40 20 / 0 0 40 10
WAVERLY 43 23 39 20 / 0 0 20 0
OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...13
LONG TERM....13
AVIATION.....UNGER
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