992
FXUS64 KOHX 021705
AFDOHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1105 AM CST MON DEC 2 2024
..NEW AVIATION
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 124 AM CST MON DEC 2 2024
THE DAY WILL BEGIN WITH QUIET BUT VERY COLD CONDITIONS. DAYBREAK
TEMPERATURES WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE LOW TO MID 20S. COLD WX WILL
REMAIN WITH US THIS WEEK AS A LONGWAVE TROUGH STAYS LOCKED IN
ACROSS THE EASTERN US.
WE CONTINUE TO LOOK FOR SOME VERY LOW-END SNOW ACTION LATER TODAY
INTO THIS EVENING AS A SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY OVER MINNESOTA AND THE
DAKOTAS COMES DOWN OUR WAY IN THE CHILLY NORTHWEST FLOW. CLOUDS
WILL START TO THICKEN UP QUICKLY AROUND LUNCHTIME AS THE WAVE
APPROACHES, THEN PATCHY LIGHT PRECIPITATION WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE
AREA MAINLY DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS.
MOST OF THE "ACTION" WILL BE JUST FLURRIES, AND PERHAPS SOME
LIQUID SPRINKLES DURING THE WARMER HOURS OF THE AFTERNOON. BUT,
THERE WILL ALSO BE SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS THAT COULD PRODUCE A
LIGHT DUSTING HERE AND THERE. SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE A BIT MORE
WIDESPREAD ON THE PLATEAU AS WE GO INTO THE EVENING HOURS. EVEN
SO, MODEL PROBABILITIES SHOW LESS THAN 10 PERCENT CHANCE OF ANY
AREAS REACHING 1 INCH, SO THIS WILL DEFINITELY BE A "LOW-END
EVENT".
OVERALL, WE ARE NOT EXPECTING ANY SIGNIFICANT TRAVEL ISSUES, AND
MANY OF US WILL NOT SEE ANYTHING MORE THAN FLURRIES. SO, WE ARE
NOT ISSUING ANY WINTER HEADLINES. I SUPPOSE THERE IS SOME CONCERN
FOR THIS EVENING WHEN TEMPERATURES DROP OFF WHILE FLURRIES
LINGER- MOST LIKELY ACROSS THE UPPER CUMBERLAND. BUT IF THERE ARE
ANY CONCERNING SNOW PATCHES, THEY SHOULD DRY UP LATE IN THE
NIGHT AS ALL PRECIPITATION ENDS.
TODAY'S DISTURBANCE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY ANOTHER COLD FRONT
PASSAGE, SO WE WILL GET A REINFORCING SHOT OF CHILLY AIR TONIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. LOTS OF TEENS CAN BE EXPECTED AT NIGHT WITH
HIGHS TUESDAY ONLY IN THE 30S AREA-WIDE.
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY THROUGH NEXT MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 124 AM CST MON DEC 2 2024
AFTER A FRIGID START WEDNESDAY, TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE AS
WINDS COME FROM THE SOUTH AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT. THAT
FRONT WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS LATE WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY
THURSDAY FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR FOR
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. NEXT WEEKEND, THE EASTERN LONGWAVE
TROUGH WILL WEAKEN. THIS WILL ALLOW SOMEWHAT MILDER TEMPERATURES
TO DEVELOP BY EARLY NEXT WEEK, BUT THAT WILL COME WITH INCREASING
RAIN CHANCES FOR SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1105 AM CST MON DEC 2 2024
CONDITIONS START OFF VFR BUT WILL GRADUALLY DETERIORATE AS A
SHORTWAVE APPROACHES MIDDLE TENNESSEE FROM THE NORTHWEST LATER
THIS AFTERNOON. THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF LIGHT SNOW ACROSS MOST
OF THE MID STATE DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.
PROB30 GROUPS ARE MORE THAN ENOUGH TO HANDLE THIS. SURFACE WINDS
WILL START OFF FROM THE W OR WNW, BUT WILL SHIFT TO THE NW AS A
COLD FRONT SWINGS THROUGH THE REGION. CEILINGS WILL DROP TO MVFR
FOR A FEW HOURS BEHIND THE SURFACE BOUNDARY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
NASHVILLE 40 23 38 25 / 20 20 0 0
CLARKSVILLE 36 20 36 24 / 30 20 0 0
CROSSVILLE 36 17 35 17 / 20 30 0 0
COLUMBIA 43 21 39 21 / 10 20 0 0
COOKEVILLE 36 19 35 20 / 20 20 0 0
JAMESTOWN 35 18 34 19 / 20 30 0 0
LAWRENCEBURG 43 20 38 21 / 10 20 0 0
MURFREESBORO 41 21 38 21 / 10 20 0 0
WAVERLY 40 20 38 24 / 20 20 0 0
OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...13
LONG TERM....13
AVIATION.....ROSE
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