434
FXUS64 KOHX 021854
AFDOHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1254 PM CST MON DEC 2 2024
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
SHORT TERM
(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1239 PM CST MON DEC 2 2024
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON SHOW IT'S STILL QUITE
COLD AREAWIDE WITH TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE MID 30S IN OUR
NORTHEAST TO AROUND 40 IN OUR SOUTHWEST. RADAR AND SATELLITE
IMAGERY INDICATES CLOUDS AND SNOW FALLING ALOFT ARE BEGINNING TO
SPREAD ACROSS THE KY BORDER INTO MIDDLE TENNESSEE. NOTABLY,
HOWEVER, THE LOW LEVELS REMAIN VERY DRY ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA
PER THE 12Z OHX SOUNDING, WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS DOWN IN THE TEENS
AND A PWAT OF JUST 0.18 INCHES. THEREFORE IT WILL TAKE SEVERAL
HOURS OF PRECIP FALLING ALOFT BEFORE LOW LEVELS CAN SATURATE
ENOUGH FOR ANY SNOW TO REACH THE GROUND, WHICH THE LATEST HRRR
ESTIMATES WILL BE AROUND 4-5 PM IN OUR NORTHWEST, 5-7 PM IN OUR
SOUTHWEST/CENTRAL/NORTHEAST, AND 7-9PM IN OUR SOUTHEAST. ALWAYS
DIFFICULT TO FORECAST SNOW AMOUNTS IN THESE LOW END SCENARIOS (OR
ANY SNOW IN THE SOUTH TBH), BUT GIVEN THE VERY COLD AND DRY
ATMOSPHERE, SNOW RATIOS SHOULD BE QUITE HIGH AND NBM FORECASTS
THEM TO RANGE FROM 12:1 IN OUR SOUTHWEST UP TO 19:1 IN OUR
NORTHEAST. GIVEN THIS, PLUS THE EXPECTED COUPLE HUNDREDTHS OF AN
INCH OF QPF OR LESS, A DUSTING TO A FEW TENTHS OF AN INCH OF SNOW
SEEMS POSSIBLE ACROSS AT LEAST PARTS OF THE MIDSTATE. NBM, WPC,
AND HRRR ALL GENERALLY AGREE WITH THIS, WITH SPLOTCHES/BANDS OF
LIGHT SNOW ACCUM AMIDST AREAS WITH NO ACCUM, AND HIGHEST AMOUNTS
(AS USUAL) ON THE PLATEAU WHICH COULD SEE AROUND 1/2 INCH. SINCE
THIS WILL BE A LIGHT, DRY SNOW, LITTLE IF ANY IMPACT TO ROADS IS
ANTICIPATED, ALTHOUGH CANNOT RULE OUT A SLICK SPOT OR TWO WHERE
ACCUMULATIONS ARE HIGHEST ON THE PLATEAU.
AFTER TODAY'S LIGHT SNOW, TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT LOOKS
QUIET, COLD AND DRY, WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 10S AND 20S AND HIGHS
ONLY IN THE 30S TO AROUND 40.
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY THROUGH NEXT MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1239 PM CST MON DEC 2 2024
WAA WILL KICK INTO GEAR ON WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF ANOTHER STRONG
ARCTIC COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA EARLY THURSDAY.
AHEAD OF THE FRONT, TEMPS WILL WARM INTO THE UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S
ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WITH DEWPOINTS RISING INTO THE 30S/40S.
THIS MAY BE ENOUGH MOISTURE RETURN FOR SOME LIGHT RAIN PRIOR TO
FROPA AS THE NBM SUGGESTS, BUT GIVEN THE LACK OF QPF ON THE 12Z
GFS/ECMWF HAVE UNDERCUT THE NBM POPS TO JUST SLIGHT CHANCE. THE
COLDEST AIR SO FAR THIS SEASON WILL ARRIVE, WITH LOWS EXPECTED TO
FALL DOWN INTO THE TEENS AREAWIDE ON FRIDAY MORNING. HIGHS WILL
AT LEAST REBOUND ON FRIDAY INTO THE MID 30S TO LOW 40S WITH AMPLE
SUNSHINE.
A PATTERN CHANGE BEGINS OVER THE WEEKEND AS OUR DEEP NORTHWEST
FLOW GETS REPLACED BY SOUTHWEST WINDS OUT AHEAD OF A CUTOFF LOW
LOCATED OVER NORTHWEST MEXICO. STRENGTHENING WAA AND MOISTURE
RETURN FROM THE GULF COULD ALLOW FOR SOME RAIN TO SPREAD INTO THE
MIDSTATE AS EARLY AS SATURDAY MORNING AS SHOWN BY THE GFS, BUT
MORE LIKELY BY SUNDAY INTO MONDAY ONCE THE DEEPER MOISTURE
ARRIVES AS INDICATED BY THE ECMWF. QPF AMOUNTS CURRENTLY LOOKS TO
BE AROUND ONE HALF INCH AREAWIDE, BUT COULD BE HIGHER IF THE
GLOBAL MODELS ARE CORRECT. WARMER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED AS
WELL OVER THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH LOWS IN THE
30S/40S AND HIGHS IN THE 40S/50S AND POSSIBLY LOW 60S - WHICH IS
AROUND 5-10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR EARLY DECEMBER.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1105 AM CST MON DEC 2 2024
CONDITIONS START OFF VFR BUT WILL GRADUALLY DETERIORATE AS A
SHORTWAVE APPROACHES MIDDLE TENNESSEE FROM THE NORTHWEST LATER
THIS AFTERNOON. THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF LIGHT SNOW ACROSS MOST
OF THE MID STATE DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.
PROB30 GROUPS ARE MORE THAN ENOUGH TO HANDLE THIS. SURFACE WINDS
WILL START OFF FROM THE W OR WNW, BUT WILL SHIFT TO THE NW AS A
COLD FRONT SWINGS THROUGH THE REGION. CEILINGS WILL DROP TO MVFR
FOR A FEW HOURS BEHIND THE SURFACE BOUNDARY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
NASHVILLE 23 38 25 52 / 30 0 0 10
CLARKSVILLE 20 36 24 49 / 20 0 0 10
CROSSVILLE 17 35 17 47 / 30 0 0 0
COLUMBIA 21 39 21 52 / 20 0 0 10
COOKEVILLE 19 35 20 48 / 30 0 0 0
JAMESTOWN 18 34 19 47 / 30 0 0 0
LAWRENCEBURG 20 38 21 51 / 20 0 0 10
MURFREESBORO 21 38 21 52 / 30 0 0 10
WAVERLY 20 38 24 49 / 20 0 0 10
OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...SHAMBURGER
LONG TERM....SHAMBURGER
AVIATION.....ROSE
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