768
FXUS64 KOHX 030450
AFDOHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1050 PM CST MON DEC 2 2024
..NEW AVIATION
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 636 PM CST MON DEC 2 2024
SNOW FLURRIES AND LIGHT SNOW COVERS A LARGE AMOUNT OF THE MID
STATE THIS EVENING. COVERAGE ACROSS KY HAS DECREASED IN THE LAST
HOUR AND WE DO SEE THE BACK EDGE STARTING TO WORK INTO SOUTHERN KY
AT THIS TIME. LATEST SHORT TERM MODELS DO SHOW THAT THE SNOW WILL
BE ENDING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. TRACE AMOUNTS
OF SNOWFALL HERE AND THERE HAS BEEN THE EXTENT THUS FAR. OUR
PLATEAU AREA, PARTICULARLY THE NORTHERN PLATEAU, COULD SEE UP TO
OR A LITTLE MORE THAN A HALF INCH WITH THIS ACTIVITY. SURFACE WIND
COMPONENT LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE 330-340 DEGREES SO NOT QUITE IN
THE 290-300 UPSLOPE SWEET SPOT. MOTORISTS SHOULD STILL EXERCISE
CAUTION AND WATCH FOR SOME SLICK SPOTS ON SOME ROADWAYS AS WELL AS
BRIDGES AND OVERPASSES, PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE PLATEAU AREA.
OTHERWISE, TEMPERATURES ARE NOW BELOW FREEZING ALONG AND NORTH OF
I-40. THE COLDER AIR SHOULD CONTINUE TO INFILTRATE THE AREA WITH
LOWS BY MORNING RANGING FROM THE HIGH TEENS PLATEAU, TO THE LOWER
20S ELSEWHERE.
FOR THE FORECAST, NO ADJUSTMENTS AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER, I MAY NEED
TO MOVE THE -SN WEATHER GRIDS BACK AN HOUR OR SO. WILL KEEP AN
EYE ON THE BACK EDGE OF THE SNOWFALL AS IT HEADS OUR WAY. WILL
THEN UPDATE IF NEEDED.
SHORT TERM
(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1239 PM CST MON DEC 2 2024
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON SHOW IT'S STILL QUITE
COLD AREAWIDE WITH TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE MID 30S IN OUR
NORTHEAST TO AROUND 40 IN OUR SOUTHWEST. RADAR AND SATELLITE
IMAGERY INDICATES CLOUDS AND SNOW FALLING ALOFT ARE BEGINNING TO
SPREAD ACROSS THE KY BORDER INTO MIDDLE TENNESSEE. NOTABLY,
HOWEVER, THE LOW LEVELS REMAIN VERY DRY ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA
PER THE 12Z OHX SOUNDING, WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS DOWN IN THE TEENS
AND A PWAT OF JUST 0.18 INCHES. THEREFORE IT WILL TAKE SEVERAL
HOURS OF PRECIP FALLING ALOFT BEFORE LOW LEVELS CAN SATURATE
ENOUGH FOR ANY SNOW TO REACH THE GROUND, WHICH THE LATEST HRRR
ESTIMATES WILL BE AROUND 4-5 PM IN OUR NORTHWEST, 5-7 PM IN OUR
SOUTHWEST/CENTRAL/NORTHEAST, AND 7-9PM IN OUR SOUTHEAST. ALWAYS
DIFFICULT TO FORECAST SNOW AMOUNTS IN THESE LOW END SCENARIOS (OR
ANY SNOW IN THE SOUTH TBH), BUT GIVEN THE VERY COLD AND DRY
ATMOSPHERE, SNOW RATIOS SHOULD BE QUITE HIGH AND NBM FORECASTS
THEM TO RANGE FROM 12:1 IN OUR SOUTHWEST UP TO 19:1 IN OUR
NORTHEAST. GIVEN THIS, PLUS THE EXPECTED COUPLE HUNDREDTHS OF AN
INCH OF QPF OR LESS, A DUSTING TO A FEW TENTHS OF AN INCH OF SNOW
SEEMS POSSIBLE ACROSS AT LEAST PARTS OF THE MIDSTATE. NBM, WPC,
AND HRRR ALL GENERALLY AGREE WITH THIS, WITH SPLOTCHES/BANDS OF
LIGHT SNOW ACCUM AMIDST AREAS WITH NO ACCUM, AND HIGHEST AMOUNTS
(AS USUAL) ON THE PLATEAU WHICH COULD SEE AROUND 1/2 INCH. SINCE
THIS WILL BE A LIGHT, DRY SNOW, LITTLE IF ANY IMPACT TO ROADS IS
ANTICIPATED, ALTHOUGH CANNOT RULE OUT A SLICK SPOT OR TWO WHERE
ACCUMULATIONS ARE HIGHEST ON THE PLATEAU.
AFTER TODAY'S LIGHT SNOW, TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT LOOKS
QUIET, COLD AND DRY, WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 10S AND 20S AND HIGHS
ONLY IN THE 30S TO AROUND 40.
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY THROUGH NEXT MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1239 PM CST MON DEC 2 2024
WAA WILL KICK INTO GEAR ON WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF ANOTHER STRONG
ARCTIC COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA EARLY THURSDAY.
AHEAD OF THE FRONT, TEMPS WILL WARM INTO THE UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S
ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WITH DEWPOINTS RISING INTO THE 30S/40S.
THIS MAY BE ENOUGH MOISTURE RETURN FOR SOME LIGHT RAIN PRIOR TO
FROPA AS THE NBM SUGGESTS, BUT GIVEN THE LACK OF QPF ON THE 12Z
GFS/ECMWF HAVE UNDERCUT THE NBM POPS TO JUST SLIGHT CHANCE. THE
COLDEST AIR SO FAR THIS SEASON WILL ARRIVE, WITH LOWS EXPECTED TO
FALL DOWN INTO THE TEENS AREAWIDE ON FRIDAY MORNING. HIGHS WILL
AT LEAST REBOUND ON FRIDAY INTO THE MID 30S TO LOW 40S WITH AMPLE
SUNSHINE.
A PATTERN CHANGE BEGINS OVER THE WEEKEND AS OUR DEEP NORTHWEST
FLOW GETS REPLACED BY SOUTHWEST WINDS OUT AHEAD OF A CUTOFF LOW
LOCATED OVER NORTHWEST MEXICO. STRENGTHENING WAA AND MOISTURE
RETURN FROM THE GULF COULD ALLOW FOR SOME RAIN TO SPREAD INTO THE
MIDSTATE AS EARLY AS SATURDAY MORNING AS SHOWN BY THE GFS, BUT
MORE LIKELY BY SUNDAY INTO MONDAY ONCE THE DEEPER MOISTURE
ARRIVES AS INDICATED BY THE ECMWF. QPF AMOUNTS CURRENTLY LOOKS TO
BE AROUND ONE HALF INCH AREAWIDE, BUT COULD BE HIGHER IF THE
GLOBAL MODELS ARE CORRECT. WARMER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED AS
WELL OVER THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH LOWS IN THE
30S/40S AND HIGHS IN THE 40S/50S AND POSSIBLY LOW 60S - WHICH IS
AROUND 5-10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR EARLY DECEMBER.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1050 PM CST MON DEC 2 2024
SNOW HAS DIMINISHED ACROSS THE AREA. MVFR CIGS HAVE BUILT IN AND
THEY WILL LINGER THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT. VFR CONDITIONS WILL RETURN
FROM WEST TO EAST AS CLOUDS MOVE OUT FROM 13 TO 16Z. NORTHERLY
WINDS UP TO 10 KNOTS WILL GRADUALLY LIGHTEN UP OVERNIGHT. WE WILL
SEE THEM SHIFT SOUTHERLY AFTER 00Z.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
NASHVILLE 23 37 26 52 / 40 0 0 20
CLARKSVILLE 20 35 24 49 / 30 0 0 10
CROSSVILLE 17 34 17 47 / 40 0 0 30
COLUMBIA 21 38 21 52 / 30 0 0 20
COOKEVILLE 19 34 20 48 / 40 0 0 30
JAMESTOWN 18 33 19 47 / 30 0 0 30
LAWRENCEBURG 20 38 21 51 / 20 0 0 30
MURFREESBORO 21 38 21 52 / 40 0 0 20
WAVERLY 20 38 24 50 / 40 0 0 20
OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
UPDATE.......21
SHORT TERM...SHAMBURGER
LONG TERM....SHAMBURGER
AVIATION.....MUELLER
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page