077
FXUS64 KOHX 031648
AFDOHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1048 AM CST TUE DEC 3 2024
..NEW AVIATION
SHORT TERM
(REST OF TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1026 AM CST TUE DEC 3 2024
A STRONG 1038 MB SURFACE HIGH IS ALMOST ON TOP OF MIDDLE TENNESSEE
THIS MORNING, AND WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE MID STATE DURING THE NEXT
FEW HOURS. MEANWHILE, PESKY LOW CLOUDS CONTINUE TO BLANKET ALL
BUT THE SOUTHWEST CORNER OF MIDDLE TENNESSEE. THE 12Z SOUNDING
FROM OHX SHOWS THE TOP OF THE CLOUD DECK AT ~3KFT AGL. GIVEN THAT
CLOUD BASES ARE CURRENTLY RUNNING 2.1-2.3KFT, THE CLOUD DECK IS
ONLY 700-900' THICK. THERE IS CONSIDERABLE SUBSIDENCE ALOFT
KEEPING THE MOISTURE TRAPPED IN PLACE, AND A LACK OF BOUNDARY
LAYER WIND IS MAKING IT DIFFICULT FOR THE CLOUDS TO MIX OUT. AT
ANY RATE, TEMPERATURES ARE GOING TO WARM CONSIDERABLY DURING THE
NEXT 24 HRS. AS THE NEXT COLD FRONT APPROACHES MIDDLE TENNESSEE.
UNFORTUNATELY, THE MILD WEATHER WE ARE EXPECTING TOMORROW WILL
ONLY LAST FOR A DAY.
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1026 AM CST TUE DEC 3 2024
THERE ARE SMALL RAIN CHANCES TOMORROW NIGHT WITH THE EXPECTED
FRONTAL PASSAGE, MAINLY ALONG THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU. THERE JUST
ISN'T ENOUGH AVAILABLE MOISTURE FOR MORE THAN THAT. THE BIGGEST
IMPACT WITH THIS NEXT FROPA IS THAT THE POST-FRONTAL AIR MASS IS
GOING TO BE JUST AS COLD -- IF NOT COLDER -- THAN THE AIR MASS
WE'VE BEEN IN THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS. TEMPERATURES WILL RECOVER
SOMEWHAT BY THIS WEEKEND, WHICH SETS THE STAGE FOR THE NEXT ACTIVE
WEATHER SYSTEM TO BEGIN AFFECTING OUR AREA ON SUNDAY OR SUNDAY
NIGHT. THE WEATHER PATTERN FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK LOOKS TO BE HIGHLY
AMPLIFIED, WITH PERSISTENT RAIN CHANCES AT LEAST THROUGH TUESDAY.
THERE IS EVEN THE POSSIBILITY OF A FEW STORMS MONDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING, GIVEN THAT WE'LL BE JUST WARM ENOUGH FOR SOME
INSTABILITY TO DEVELOP. AT THIS TIME, THERE DOESN'T APPEAR TO BE
MUCH CHANCE OF ANY WINTRY PRECIPITATION FOR THE FORESEEABLE
FUTURE. THE MOST RECENT 6-10 DAY OUTLOOK FAVORS NEAR NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ACROSS MIDDLE TENNESSEE WITH ABOVE NORMAL RAINFALL,
WHILE THE 8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FAVORS WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1048 AM CST TUE DEC 3 2024
STUBBORN MVFR CLOUD DECK IS SLOWLY ERODING FROM THE SOUTHWEST, SO
IT WILL TAKE A FEW HOURS LONGER THAN EARLIER THOUGHT IN THE
20-21Z TIMEFRAME BEFORE CONDITIONS RETURN TO VFR AT AIRPORTS.
AFTER THEN, CLOUDS WILL SCATTER OUT WITH SKC RETURNING BY
04/00-01Z. LIGHT NORTH WINDS THIS AFTERNOON WILL VEER TO LIGHT
SOUTHERLY WINDS OVERNIGHT.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
NASHVILLE 37 26 53 27 / 0 0 0 0
CLARKSVILLE 35 24 51 23 / 0 0 0 0
CROSSVILLE 35 18 48 23 / 0 0 0 30
COLUMBIA 38 22 53 28 / 0 0 10 10
COOKEVILLE 35 21 48 25 / 0 0 0 20
JAMESTOWN 33 18 48 22 / 0 0 0 30
LAWRENCEBURG 37 21 52 29 / 0 0 0 10
MURFREESBORO 37 21 53 27 / 0 0 0 10
WAVERLY 37 25 51 24 / 0 0 10 0
OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...ROSE
LONG TERM....ROSE
AVIATION.....SHAMBURGER
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page