604
FXUS64 KOHX 232330
AFDOHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
530 PM CST THU JAN 23 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 520 PM CST THU JAN 23 2025
- SLOW WARMING TREND, CULMINATING WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES
BY SATURDAY AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS BY THIS TIME NEXT WEEK.
- LOW CHANCE FOR LIGHT SHOWERS SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.
SHORT TERM
(REST OF TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1151 AM CST THU JAN 23 2025
WE ARE SEEING SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF A DIGGING TROUGH TO OUR
WEST. THIS WILL HELP TO WARM THINGS ABOVE FREEZING TODAY WITH
HIGHS PUSHING INTO THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S. CLOUD COVER WILL
START TO PUSH IN THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES BY THE EVENING. THE FRONT AND
TROUGH AXIS WILL WORK THROUGH OVERNIGHT AND OVERALL WE WON'T SEE
MUCH FROM IT BESIDES THE CLOUD COVER BUT A FEW FLURRIES FROM TIME
TO TIME CAN'T BE RULED OUT. LOWS TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER
TEENS TO LOWER 20S. CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY CLEAR THROUGHOUT THE
DAY FRIDAY AS FLOW ALOFT BECOMES ZONAL AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS OVER THE REGION. COLDER AIR BEHIND THE FRONT WILL DROP
HIGHS ON FRIDAY BACK INTO THE LOW TO MID 30S.
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1151 AM CST THU JAN 23 2025
CLEAR SKIES WILL LEAD TO A COLD NIGHT FRIDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS
FALLING INTO THE TEENS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL START TO PUSH EAST ON
SATURDAY PUSHING HIGHS BACK INTO THE 40S TO NEAR 50. A TROUGH
DIGGING OVER THE CENTRAL PART OF THE COUNTRY WILL HELP TO PULL
MOISTURE UP FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO ON SUNDAY AND BRING US A LOW
CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT SHOWERS. A WARM FRONT WILL TRY TO LIFT NORTH
INTO OUR AREA ON SUNDAY BUT WILL LIKELY STAY JUST SOUTH OF THE
BOARDER. THIS IS WHERE THE BETTER RAIN CHANCES WILL REMAIN BUT
LIGHT SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE SUNDAY DURING THE DAY. SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT BRUSHES
THE AREA. RAIN TOTALS WILL RANGE FROM A FEW HUNDRETHS IN NORTHERN
AREAS UP TO 0.10" TOWARDS THE SOUTHERN BOARDER.
NORTHWEST FLOW WILL KEEP HIGHS IN THE 40S TO NEAR 50 MONDAY BUT
THEN WE WILL SEE A RIDGE AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILD OVER THE AREA.
THIS WILL BRING WIDESPREAD 50S BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH WILL KICK OUT OF THE WEST AT SOME POINT TOWARDS THE
END OF THE WEEK AND MAY BRING SOME LIGHT SHOWERS TO THE AREA BUT
THERE IS A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY ON WHEN AND WHERE THIS WILL HAPPEN.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 520 PM CST THU JAN 23 2025
VFR CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH MOST OF THE OVERNIGHT. A
COLD FRONT CURRENTLY STRETCHING FROM ARKANSAS UP THROUGH THE
GREAT LAKES WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA OVERNIGHT, BRINGING PERIODS
OF MVFR CIGS TO BNA, MQY, CSV, AND SRB. A FEW FLURRIES MAY SQUEEZE
OUT, BUT WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION IS NOT EXPECTED. LATEST MODELS
SHOW CLOUDS CLEARING AND VFR CONDITIONS RETURNING AT BNA AND MQY
AROUND 18Z AND VFR CONDITIONS RETURNING AT CSV AND SRB CLOSER TO
21Z. WINDS REMAIN LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH TONIGHT, SHIFTING
WESTERLY AFTER 18Z.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
NASHVILLE 22 36 22 49 / 10 0 0 0
CLARKSVILLE 18 34 21 49 / 10 0 0 0
CROSSVILLE 18 31 17 44 / 10 0 0 0
COLUMBIA 22 36 20 49 / 10 0 0 0
COOKEVILLE 20 32 19 45 / 10 0 0 0
JAMESTOWN 18 30 16 44 / 10 0 0 0
LAWRENCEBURG 21 37 20 47 / 10 0 0 0
MURFREESBORO 21 36 19 49 / 10 0 0 0
WAVERLY 19 34 22 48 / 10 0 0 0
OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...MUELLER
LONG TERM....MUELLER
AVIATION.....BAGGETT
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