081
FXUS64 KOHX 240436
AFDOHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1036 PM CST THU JAN 23 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1009 PM CST THU JAN 23 2025
- SLOW WARMING TREND, CULMINATING WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES
BY SATURDAY AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS BY THIS TIME NEXT WEEK.
- LOW CHANCE FOR LIGHT SHOWERS SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 749 PM CST THU JAN 23 2025
RETURNS HAVE BEEN SHOWING UP THIS EVENING ON OHX AND HPX BUT WE'VE
HAD NO REPORTS OF ANY PRECIPITATION MAKING IT TO THE GROUND.
LOOKING AT THE 00Z OHX SOUNDING, THE LOW LEVELS BELOW 6000 FT ARE
VERY DRY. I CAN'T RULE OUT THAT A COUPLE FLAKES SURVIVE TO THE
GROUND BUT THE CHANCES LOOK LOW. THE COLD FRONT IS JUST NORTH OF
THE TN/KY STATE LINE AND SAGGING SOUTH. IT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
AREA OVERNIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES MAKING IT INTO THE LOW 20S BY
DAWN. ALONG THE STATE LINE TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE ABLE TO DROP
INTO THE UPPER TEENS. OVERALL, THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK AND NO
MAJOR CHANGES WERE MADE.
SHORT TERM
(REST OF TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1151 AM CST THU JAN 23 2025
WE ARE SEEING SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF A DIGGING TROUGH TO OUR
WEST. THIS WILL HELP TO WARM THINGS ABOVE FREEZING TODAY WITH
HIGHS PUSHING INTO THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S. CLOUD COVER WILL
START TO PUSH IN THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES BY THE EVENING. THE FRONT AND
TROUGH AXIS WILL WORK THROUGH OVERNIGHT AND OVERALL WE WON'T SEE
MUCH FROM IT BESIDES THE CLOUD COVER BUT A FEW FLURRIES FROM TIME
TO TIME CAN'T BE RULED OUT. LOWS TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER
TEENS TO LOWER 20S. CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY CLEAR THROUGHOUT THE
DAY FRIDAY AS FLOW ALOFT BECOMES ZONAL AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS OVER THE REGION. COLDER AIR BEHIND THE FRONT WILL DROP
HIGHS ON FRIDAY BACK INTO THE LOW TO MID 30S.
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1151 AM CST THU JAN 23 2025
CLEAR SKIES WILL LEAD TO A COLD NIGHT FRIDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS
FALLING INTO THE TEENS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL START TO PUSH EAST ON
SATURDAY PUSHING HIGHS BACK INTO THE 40S TO NEAR 50. A TROUGH
DIGGING OVER THE CENTRAL PART OF THE COUNTRY WILL HELP TO PULL
MOISTURE UP FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO ON SUNDAY AND BRING US A LOW
CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT SHOWERS. A WARM FRONT WILL TRY TO LIFT NORTH
INTO OUR AREA ON SUNDAY BUT WILL LIKELY STAY JUST SOUTH OF THE
BOARDER. THIS IS WHERE THE BETTER RAIN CHANCES WILL REMAIN BUT
LIGHT SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE SUNDAY DURING THE DAY. SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT BRUSHES
THE AREA. RAIN TOTALS WILL RANGE FROM A FEW HUNDRETHS IN NORTHERN
AREAS UP TO 0.10" TOWARDS THE SOUTHERN BOARDER.
NORTHWEST FLOW WILL KEEP HIGHS IN THE 40S TO NEAR 50 MONDAY BUT
THEN WE WILL SEE A RIDGE AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILD OVER THE AREA.
THIS WILL BRING WIDESPREAD 50S BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH WILL KICK OUT OF THE WEST AT SOME POINT TOWARDS THE
END OF THE WEEK AND MAY BRING SOME LIGHT SHOWERS TO THE AREA BUT
THERE IS A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY ON WHEN AND WHERE THIS WILL HAPPEN.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1009 PM CST THU JAN 23 2025
VFR CONDITIONS ARE IN PLACE AT ALL TERMINALS RIGHT NOW. A COLD
FRONT IS CURRENTLY WORKING ITS WAY THROUGH THE AREA AND IT HAS
BROUGHT IN A THICK DECK OF MID-LEVEL CLOUDS. WINDS ARE SHIFTING
NORTH BEHIND THE FRONT WITH PERIODIC GUSTS OF 15-20 KTS UPON
PASSAGE. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW MVFR CIGS DEVELOPING AT BNA, MQY,
CSV, AND SRB AROUND 12Z. THEY SHOULDN'T BE AROUND LONG, THOUGH,
AS CLOUDS WILL CLEAR THE AREA FROM WEST TO EAST AFTER 18Z. WINDS
WILL ALSO SHIFT OUT OF THE WEST DURING THIS TIME.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
NASHVILLE 22 36 22 49 / 0 0 0 0
CLARKSVILLE 18 34 21 49 / 0 0 0 0
CROSSVILLE 18 31 17 44 / 0 0 0 0
COLUMBIA 22 36 20 49 / 0 0 0 0
COOKEVILLE 20 32 19 45 / 0 0 0 0
JAMESTOWN 18 30 16 44 / 0 0 0 0
LAWRENCEBURG 21 37 20 47 / 0 0 0 0
MURFREESBORO 21 36 19 49 / 0 0 0 0
WAVERLY 19 34 22 48 / 0 0 0 0
OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
UPDATE.......REAGAN
SHORT TERM...MUELLER
LONG TERM....MUELLER
AVIATION.....BAGGETT
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