310
FXUS64 KOHX 240718
AFDOHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
118 AM CST FRI JAN 24 2025
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 101 AM CST FRI JAN 24 2025
- TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN A WARMING TREND AFTER TODAY,
CULMINATING WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES BY SATURDAY AND ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES NEXT WEEK.
- RAIN CHANCES THIS WEEKEND CONTINUE TO DIMINISH.
- THERE IS A BETTER CHANCE OF RAIN NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 101 AM CST FRI JAN 24 2025
TODAY MARKS THE FIRST TIME SINCE 1977 THAT WE'VE STARTED JANUARY
WITH 24 STRAIGHT DAYS WITH LOW TEMPERATURES OF 35 DEGREES OR
BELOW AT NASHVILLE. FORTUNATELY, AFTER TODAY WE'LL BEGIN A SLOW,
STEADY WARMING TREND. BUT TODAY WE'RE TAKING A STEP BACKWARD AS
ANOTHER DRY COLD FRONT IS ALMOST ALL THE WAY THROUGH MIDDLE
TENNESSEE. FORTUNATELY, WE'LL AVOID THE BITTER COLD TEMPERATURES
THAT WE EXPERIENCED EARLIER THIS WEEK. BUT IT STILL FEELS AS
THOUGH WE CAN'T GET ANY TRACTION. A SURFACE HIGH WILL SLIP ACROSS
THE MID STATE FRIDAY NIGHT, THUS SETTING US UP WITH SOME RETURN,
SOUTHERLY FLOW ON SATURDAY. AND THE LONG-AWAITED WARMING TREND
WILL BE UNDERWAY.
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 101 AM CST FRI JAN 24 2025
LATE THIS WEEKEND, AN INVERTED TROUGH EMANATING FROM A GULF OF
MEXICO LOW WILL EXTEND INTO THE COASTAL STATES...AND NOT MUCH
FURTHER. A FEW DAYS AGO, IT APPEARED THAT MIDDLE TENNESSEE COULD
EXPECT A DECENT RAIN EVENT FROM THIS WEATHER SYSTEM, BUT NOT SO
MUCH ANYMORE, AS POPS AND QPFS CONTINUE TO DIMINISH. AT THIS
TIME, IT APPEARS THAT AREAS SOUTH OF I-40 MAY SEE A FEW SHOWERS
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT, BUT EXPECTED RAINFALL TOTALS ARE ANEMIC.
STILL, TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO CLIMB SO THAT WE MIGHT
ACTUALLY EXCEED SEASONAL NORMALS BEGINNING ON TUESDAY. THE
ATMOSPHERIC MODELS ARE HINTING AT A MUCH MORE ORGANIZED ACTIVE
WEATHER SYSTEM LATER IN THE WEEK THAT WOULD BEING BETTER RAIN
CHANCES. UNTIL THEN, WE CAN LOOK FORWARD TO A WEATHER PATTERN THAT
IS BLESSEDLY BENIGN.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1009 PM CST THU JAN 23 2025
VFR CONDITIONS ARE IN PLACE AT ALL TERMINALS RIGHT NOW. A COLD
FRONT IS CURRENTLY WORKING ITS WAY THROUGH THE AREA AND IT HAS
BROUGHT IN A THICK DECK OF MID-LEVEL CLOUDS. WINDS ARE SHIFTING
NORTH BEHIND THE FRONT WITH PERIODIC GUSTS OF 15-20 KTS UPON
PASSAGE. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW MVFR CIGS DEVELOPING AT BNA, MQY,
CSV, AND SRB AROUND 12Z. THEY SHOULDN'T BE AROUND LONG, THOUGH,
AS CLOUDS WILL CLEAR THE AREA FROM WEST TO EAST AFTER 18Z. WINDS
WILL ALSO SHIFT OUT OF THE WEST DURING THIS TIME. FOR THE
FORESEEABLE FUTURE, THE WORST OF THE COLD IS BEHIND US.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
NASHVILLE 37 23 50 32 / 0 0 0 0
CLARKSVILLE 34 22 50 31 / 0 0 0 0
CROSSVILLE 33 18 44 27 / 0 0 0 0
COLUMBIA 37 21 49 31 / 0 0 0 0
COOKEVILLE 33 20 46 29 / 0 0 0 0
JAMESTOWN 31 17 44 28 / 0 0 0 0
LAWRENCEBURG 38 21 48 30 / 0 0 0 0
MURFREESBORO 37 20 49 30 / 0 0 0 0
WAVERLY 34 23 49 31 / 0 0 0 0
OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...ROSE
LONG TERM....ROSE
AVIATION.....BAGGETT
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