845
FXUS64 KOHX 241748
AFDOHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1148 AM CST FRI JAN 24 2025
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1147 AM CST FRI JAN 24 2025
- WARMING TREND AFTER TODAY, RETURNING TO NEAR NORMAL THIS
WEEKEND AND ABOVE NORMAL NEXT WEEK.
- LOW CHANCE FOR SHOWERS SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT TOWARDS THE
TN/AL BOARDER.
- THERE IS A BETTER CHANCE OF RAIN LATE NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(REST OF TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1147 AM CST FRI JAN 24 2025
THE TROUGH AXIS OF A LONG WAVE TROUGH IS SWINGING THROUGH MIDDLE
TN. THIS HAS BROUGHT SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS TO THE PLATEAU WITH
SOME MINOR ACCUMULATION MAINLY IN THE FAR NORTHEAST PART OF THE
AREA. ANY LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH OVER THE NEXT HOUR
WITH DRY WEATHER THIS AFTERNOON. CLOUD COVER WILL DIMINISH FROM
WEST TO EAST THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON AND MOST OF THE AREA WILL
GET TO SEE THE SUN BEFORE SUNSET. COLD AIR HAS SETTLED IN BEHIND
THE TROUGH AND THAT WILL KEEP HIGHS IN THE 30S FOR TODAY. CLEAR
AND COOL TONIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE TEENS TO LOWER 20S.
UPPER LEVEL FLOW BECOMES ZONAL SATURDAY WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING TO OUR SOUTH. THIS WILL BRING THE RETURN OF SOUTHERLY
WINDS AND WARM US BACK INTO THE 40S TO AROUND 50 FOR HIGHS.
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1147 AM CST FRI JAN 24 2025
A SHORT WAVE WILL DEVELOP WITHIN THE ZONAL FLOW SUNDAY AS A TROUGH
DIGS INTO THE GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL START TO PUSH MOISTURE NORTH
FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO AND PUSH A WARM FRONT NORTH SUNDAY INTO
SUNDAY NIGHT. THE WARM FRONT IS EXPECTED TO STAY TO OUR SOUTH AND
THAT WILL KEEP THE BULK OF THE PRECIP SOUTH OF US. SOME LIGHT
SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE TOWARDS THE TN/AL BOARDER AHEAD OF THIS
FRONT MAINLY SUNDAY EVENING INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. RAIN TOTALS
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE VARY LIGHT WITH NOTHING EXPECTED IN
NORTHERN AREAS AND UP TO 0.10" TOWARDS THE TN/AL STATE LINE.
NORTHWEST FLOW THEN DEVELOPS EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH HIGH PRESSURE
SETTING UP TO OUR SOUTH. HIGHS WILL REMAIN IN THE 40S TO AROUND 50
BOTH SUNDAY AND MONDAY BUT BY TUESDAY WE WILL START TO WARM WITH
THEM PUSHING WELL INTO THE 50S. WE LOOK TO STAY DRY THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK BUT UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST INCREASES LATE
WEEK. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL LIFT OUT OF THE WEST AT SOME POINT
AND WILL BRING US RAIN CHANCES. ENSEMBLES DIVERGE ON WHEN AND
EXACTLY WHERE THIS WILL HAPPEN. EITHER WAY IT DOSE NOT LOOK
IMPACTFUL BUT WILL BRING RAIN CHANCES AT SOME POINT IN THE
THURSDAY TO SATURDAY TIMEFRAME.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1137 AM CST FRI JAN 24 2025
AFTER THE LOW CLOUD DECK OVER CSV AND SRB MOVES OFF TO THE EAST
SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. WINDS
WILL STAY LIGHT AND SHIFT OUT OF THE SOUTH THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT, BEFORE INCREASING BY MID MORNING ON SATURDAY AND
TURNING MORE SOUTHWESTERLY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
NASHVILLE 37 24 50 33 / 0 0 0 10
CLARKSVILLE 34 23 50 31 / 0 0 0 10
CROSSVILLE 33 18 44 28 / 20 0 0 10
COLUMBIA 37 21 49 31 / 0 0 0 10
COOKEVILLE 33 20 46 29 / 20 0 0 10
JAMESTOWN 31 17 44 28 / 20 0 0 10
LAWRENCEBURG 38 21 48 30 / 0 0 0 10
MURFREESBORO 37 21 49 30 / 0 0 0 10
WAVERLY 35 23 49 31 / 0 0 0 10
OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...MUELLER
LONG TERM....MUELLER
AVIATION.....WHITEHEAD
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