203
FXUS64 KOHX 251803
AFDOHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1203 PM CST SAT JAN 25 2025
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1201 PM CST SAT JAN 25 2025
- WARMER TEMPERATURES IN THE DAYS AHEAD.
- LOW CHANCE FOR SHOWERS SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT SOUTH OF I-40.
- THERE IS A BETTER CHANCE OF RAIN LATE NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1201 PM CST SAT JAN 25 2025
A SURFACE HIGH TO OUR SOUTHEAST IS ALLOWING FOR PLENTY OF SUNSHINE
TODAY AND BREEZY SOUTHERLY SURFACE WINDS. TEMPERATURES WILL RISE
INTO THE UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S ACROSS THE AREA BY THIS AFTERNOON.
THIS MORNING WAS OUR LAST DIP INTO THE TEENS FOR THE FORESEEABLE
FUTURE! TONIGHT MIGHT SEE COMPARATIVELY WARM, WITH LOWS ONLY IN
THE LOW 30S. SOUTHERLY FLOW REMAINS STEADY TOMORROW AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING WAVE. EXPECT HIGHS TO BE JUST A COUPLE OF DEGREES
COOLER THAN TODAY. LIGHT SHOWERS MAY START TO MOVE INTO OUR
SOUTHERN COUNTIES LATE TOMORROW AFTERNOON, BUT THE BEST CHANCE FOR
LIGHT RAIN WILL BE AFTER 6PM.
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1201 PM CST SAT JAN 25 2025
A BROAD AREA OF SHOWERS DRIVEN EAST BY AN UPPER SHORTWAVE WILL
REMAIN MOSTLY SOUTH OF US SUNDAY EVENING, HOWEVER AREAS SOUTH OF
I-40 HAVE THE BEST CHANCE OF SEEING LIGHT RAIN SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE
NORTHERN EDGE OF THE SHOWERS EXPAND INTO OUR AREA. RAINFALL
AMOUNTS MAY BE JUST ENOUGH TO MEASURE. AS TEMPERATURES FALL AT THE
SURFACE AND ALOFT ON SUNDAY NIGHT A FEW FLURRIES MAY MIX IN WITH
THE RAIN ON THE NORTHERN FRINGES OF ANY REMAINING PRECIP. NO
IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED.
ANOTHER AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SINK TO OUR SOUTH AND KEEP
MONDAY AND TUESDAY DRY WITH GRADUALLY WARMING TEMPERATURES. BY
WEDNESDAY, WHEN OUR NEXT CHANCE OF SHOWERS ENTERS THE FORECAST WE
COULD SEE TEMPERATURES PUSHING INTO THE UPPER 50S.
THE LAST HALF OF THE WEEK IS PAINTED WITH LOW CHANCE POPS, AS
MODELS HONE IN ON THE TIMING OF THE NEXT SYSTEM. MORE THAN LIKELY
WE WON'T SEE RAIN STRETCH ACROSS MULTIPLE DAYS. IN FACT THE BEST
CHANCE FOR RAIN AFTER WEDNESDAY LOOKS TO BE FRIDAY NIGHT. IT'S
STILL SEVERAL DAYS OUT, BUT THE LOW PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH NEXT
WEEKEND'S SYSTEM LOOKS MORE ROBUST THAN WHAT WE'VE SEEN LATELY AND
COULD HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST SOME THUNDER, BUT WE'LL SEE
HOW THINGS CHANGE IN THE COMING DAYS.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1130 AM CST SAT JAN 25 2025
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. INCREASING HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS THIS EVENING WITH CIGS LOWERING OVERNIGHT BUT STAYING IN
VFR. SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS UP TO 12 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON BECOMING
LIGHT UNDER 7 KNOTS OVERNIGHT.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
NASHVILLE 33 48 31 49 / 0 20 20 0
CLARKSVILLE 32 45 26 47 / 0 10 10 0
CROSSVILLE 28 45 29 44 / 0 10 20 0
COLUMBIA 31 48 31 50 / 0 20 20 0
COOKEVILLE 30 45 30 45 / 0 20 20 0
JAMESTOWN 29 44 27 43 / 0 10 10 0
LAWRENCEBURG 30 48 32 49 / 0 20 30 0
MURFREESBORO 30 48 31 49 / 0 20 20 0
WAVERLY 32 46 29 48 / 0 10 10 0
OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...WHITEHEAD
LONG TERM....WHITEHEAD
AVIATION.....MUELLER
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