221
FXUS64 KOHX 260159
AFDOHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
759 PM CST SAT JAN 25 2025
..NEW UPDATE
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 740 PM CST SAT JAN 25 2025
- NORMAL TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE NEXT 7 DAYS.
- CHANCE FOR LIGHT SHOWERS SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT, POSSIBLY
MIXED WITH SOME SNOWFLAKES SUNDAY NIGHT.
- THERE IS A BETTER CHANCE OF RAIN LATE NEXT WEEK.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 740 PM CST SAT JAN 25 2025
THE APPROACH OF A SOUTHERN STEAM SHORTWAVE AND A COLD FRONT FROM
THE NORTHWEST WILL BRING INCREASING CLOUDS THROUGH THE NIGHT.
WITH THE CLOUDS AND LIGHT SOUTHWEST WINDS, LOWS TONIGHT WILL NOT
BE NEARLY AS COLD AS LAST NIGHT.
FOR SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT, NEW DATA WAS INCLUDED WITH THIS
UPDATE SHOWING SLIGHTLY HIGHER PRECIP CHANCES AREA-WIDE. MOST OF
THE RAINFALL WITH THE SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM WILL FALL SOUTH OF
OUR AREA, BUT THE FRONT COMING FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL DRAW SOME
OF THAT MOISTURE NORTHWARD WHILE ADDING LIFT BY SUNDAY EVENING.
EVEN WITH GREATER CHANCES, PRECIP AMOUNTS WILL STILL BE VERY
LIGHT WITH LESS THAN ONE TENTH OF AN INCH. COLDER AIR WITH THE
FRONT WILL CAUSE WHATEVER LIGHT PRECIPITATION LINGERS SUNDAY
EVENING TO CHANGE TO SNOWFLAKES OR PERHAPS A LITTLE SLEET. NO
SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATION OR IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED, BUT HIGHER
ELEVATION NORTH AND NORTHEAST OF NASHVILLE (HIGHLAND RIM AND
UPPER CUMBERLAND) COULD SEE A FEW LATE NIGHT SLICK SPOTS ON
ELEVATED SURFACES. SHORT RANGE MODELS (HREF) HAVE BEEN SHOWING
THIS POTENTIAL FOR SEVERAL RUNS, INCLUDING THE LATEST HRRR 00Z
DATA.
SHORT TERM
(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1201 PM CST SAT JAN 25 2025
A SURFACE HIGH TO OUR SOUTHEAST IS ALLOWING FOR PLENTY OF SUNSHINE
TODAY AND BREEZY SOUTHERLY SURFACE WINDS. TEMPERATURES WILL RISE
INTO THE UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S ACROSS THE AREA BY THIS AFTERNOON.
THIS MORNING WAS OUR LAST DIP INTO THE TEENS FOR THE FORESEEABLE
FUTURE! TONIGHT MIGHT SEE COMPARATIVELY WARM, WITH LOWS ONLY IN
THE LOW 30S. SOUTHERLY FLOW REMAINS STEADY TOMORROW AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING WAVE. EXPECT HIGHS TO BE JUST A COUPLE OF DEGREES
COOLER THAN TODAY. LIGHT SHOWERS MAY START TO MOVE INTO OUR
SOUTHERN COUNTIES LATE TOMORROW AFTERNOON, BUT THE BEST CHANCE FOR
LIGHT RAIN WILL BE AFTER 6PM.
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1201 PM CST SAT JAN 25 2025
A BROAD AREA OF SHOWERS DRIVEN EAST BY AN UPPER SHORTWAVE WILL
REMAIN MOSTLY SOUTH OF US SUNDAY EVENING, HOWEVER AREAS SOUTH OF
I-40 HAVE THE BEST CHANCE OF SEEING LIGHT RAIN SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE
NORTHERN EDGE OF THE SHOWERS EXPAND INTO OUR AREA. RAINFALL
AMOUNTS MAY BE JUST ENOUGH TO MEASURE. AS TEMPERATURES FALL AT THE
SURFACE AND ALOFT ON SUNDAY NIGHT A FEW FLURRIES MAY MIX IN WITH
THE RAIN ON THE NORTHERN FRINGES OF ANY REMAINING PRECIP. NO
IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED.
ANOTHER AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SINK TO OUR SOUTH AND KEEP
MONDAY AND TUESDAY DRY WITH GRADUALLY WARMING TEMPERATURES. BY
WEDNESDAY, WHEN OUR NEXT CHANCE OF SHOWERS ENTERS THE FORECAST WE
COULD SEE TEMPERATURES PUSHING INTO THE UPPER 50S.
THE LAST HALF OF THE WEEK IS PAINTED WITH LOW CHANCE POPS, AS
MODELS HONE IN ON THE TIMING OF THE NEXT SYSTEM. MORE THAN LIKELY
WE WON'T SEE RAIN STRETCH ACROSS MULTIPLE DAYS. IN FACT THE BEST
CHANCE FOR RAIN AFTER WEDNESDAY LOOKS TO BE FRIDAY NIGHT. IT'S
STILL SEVERAL DAYS OUT, BUT THE LOW PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH NEXT
WEEKEND'S SYSTEM LOOKS MORE ROBUST THAN WHAT WE'VE SEEN LATELY AND
COULD HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST SOME THUNDER, BUT WE'LL SEE
HOW THINGS CHANGE IN THE COMING DAYS.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 521 PM CST SAT JAN 25 2025
VFR CONDITIONS TONIGHT WITH HIGH CLOUDS. CIGS WILL START TO LOWER
SUNDAY LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON WITH MVFR ARRIVING 17-20Z AT
ALL TERMINALS. CATS WILL WORSEN TO AT LEAST IFR WITH THE 06Z TAF
ISSUANCE.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
NASHVILLE 33 46 31 49 / 0 20 30 0
CLARKSVILLE 32 45 25 47 / 0 10 20 0
CROSSVILLE 28 44 29 44 / 0 10 30 0
COLUMBIA 31 45 31 49 / 0 30 40 0
COOKEVILLE 30 44 29 45 / 0 20 40 0
JAMESTOWN 28 44 27 42 / 0 10 30 0
LAWRENCEBURG 29 45 32 48 / 0 30 50 0
MURFREESBORO 30 46 31 48 / 0 30 40 0
WAVERLY 32 44 28 47 / 0 20 20 0
OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
UPDATE.......13
SHORT TERM...WHITEHEAD
LONG TERM....WHITEHEAD
AVIATION.....UNGER
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