998
FXUS64 KOHX 261738
AFDOHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1138 AM CST SUN JAN 26 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1127 AM CST SUN JAN 26 2025
- RAIN CHANCES FOR SUNDAY NIGHT HAVE INCREASED, ALTHOUGH QPF IS
STILL QUITE LOW. PRECIPITATION MAY SWITCH OVER TO SNOW OR A
WINTRY MIX TONIGHT BEFORE ENDING. NO ACCUMULATIONS ARE
EXPECTED.
- TEMPERATURES THE NEXT 7 DAYS WILL REMAIN AT OR ABOVE SEASONAL
NORMALS.
- THE NEXT ACTIVE WEATHER SYSTEM WILL BRING WIDESPREAD SHOWERS TO
MIDDLE TENNESSEE LATE IN THE WEEK AND NEXT WEEKEND. QPF WITH
THIS EVENT IS MUCH MORE ROBUST.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 109 AM CST SUN JAN 26 2025
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHEAST IS QUICKLY RETREATING
EASTWARD AND GIVING WAY TO AN INVERTED TROUGH THAT IS EXTENDING
NORTHEASTWARD FROM THE GULF COAST. THE PAST FEW MODEL CYCLES HAVE
SIGNIFICANTLY INCREASED OUR POPS ACROSS MIDDLE TENNESSEE FOR
TONIGHT, ALTHOUGH QPF IS STILL QUITE LOW -- LESS THAN 0.1" IN
AREAS NORTH OF I-40 AND 0.1" TO 0.25" IN AREAS FARTHER SOUTH. AS
TEMPERATURES DECREASE OVERNIGHT BEHIND THE DEPARTING SURFACE
TROUGH, SHOWERS MAY CHANGE OVER TO SNOW, OR AT LEAST EVOLVE INTO A
WINTRY MIX BEFORE ENDING. HOWEVER, ANY TYPE OF WINTRY
PRECIPITATION WILL BE SHORT-LIVED AND IS NOT EXPECTED TO
ACCUMULATE. HIGH PRESSURE WILL QUICKLY BUILD BACK INTO THE REGION
ON MONDAY, AND TEMPERATURES THROUGH MID-WEEK WILL CONTINUE TO
INCREASE.
LONG TERM
(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 109 AM CST SUN JAN 26 2025
THE NEXT ACTIVE WEATHER SYSTEM WILL BEGIN SPREADING SHOWERS INTO
MIDDLE TENNESSEE THURSDAY OR THURSDAY NIGHT, WITH RAIN CHANCES
CONTINUING INTO THE WEEKEND. AT THIS TIME, TOTAL QPF FOR THIS
EVENT FALLS BETWEEN 1 AND 2 INCHES ACROSS MOST OF MIDDLE
TENNESSEE. BUT THERE IS STILL A GREAT DEAL OF DISCREPANCY AMONGST
THE INDIVIDUAL MODELS REGARDING TIMING OF THIS SYSTEM, SO FORECAST
CONFIDENCE IS QUITE LOW. LOOKING AHEAD TO THE 6-10 DAY AND 8-14
DAY OUTLOOKS, WE CAN LOOK FORWARD TO A PROLONGED PERIOD OF ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1127 AM CST SUN JAN 26 2025
MVFR CIGS WILL BUILD IN THIS AFTERNOON WITH ALL TERMINALS IN MVFR
BY 00Z. CIGS WILL CONTINUE TO LOWER IN THE EVENING AND IFR IS
EXPECTED AFTER 04Z, LIFR CIGS WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR KCSV AFTER 09Z.
40-80% CHANCE OF LIGHT SHOWERS BETWEEN 04 AND 12Z WITH THE BEST
CHANCES SOUTH OF I-40 AND OVER THE PLATEAU. SOME SNOW MAY MIX IN
WITH THE SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE PLATEAU AFTER 09Z, 15-40% CHANCE OF
A DUSTING OF ACCUMULATION BY DAYBREAK. CIGS WILL START TO COME UP
AFTER 13Z FROM WEST TO EAST. LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS UNDER 5 KNOTS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
NASHVILLE 47 31 48 30 / 10 50 0 0
CLARKSVILLE 45 26 46 30 / 10 30 0 0
CROSSVILLE 46 32 43 25 / 10 60 20 0
COLUMBIA 47 32 48 29 / 20 60 10 0
COOKEVILLE 47 31 44 26 / 10 60 10 0
JAMESTOWN 46 29 42 26 / 10 60 10 0
LAWRENCEBURG 47 33 47 28 / 20 70 20 0
MURFREESBORO 49 32 47 27 / 10 50 10 0
WAVERLY 46 28 46 29 / 10 30 0 0
OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...ROSE
LONG TERM....ROSE
AVIATION.....MUELLER
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