804
FXUS64 KOHX 261802
AFDOHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1202 PM CST SUN JAN 26 2025
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1149 AM CST SUN JAN 26 2025
- CHANCES FOR LIGHT RAIN FOR TONIGHT HAVE INCREASED.
PRECIPITATION MAY SWITCH OVER TO SNOW OR A WINTRY MIX LATE TONIGHT
BEFORE ENDING. VERY LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE ON THE
PLATEAU.
- TEMPERATURES THE NEXT 7 DAYS WILL REMAIN AT OR ABOVE SEASONAL
NORMALS.
- THE NEXT ACTIVE WEATHER SYSTEM WILL BRING WIDESPREAD SHOWERS TO
MIDDLE TENNESSEE LATE IN THE WEEK AND NEXT WEEKEND. QPF WITH
THIS EVENT IS MUCH MORE ROBUST.
SHORT TERM
(REST OF TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1149 AM CST SUN JAN 26 2025
WE'VE SEEN LIGHT SPRINKLES ACROSS THE SOUTH THIS MORNING. THIS
PRECIP IS EXPECTED TO EXPAND NORTH ACROSS MOST OF MIDDLE TN
THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT HOURS. MOST OF WHAT FALLS
WILL REMAIN IN LIQUID FORM AS WE HAVE PLENTY OF WARM AIR NEAR THE
SURFACE, BUT LATE TONIGHT SOUNDINGS SHOW THE TEMPERATURE PROFILES
FALLING BELOW FREEZING MAINLY NORTH OF I-40, WHICH WILL SUPPORT AT
LEAST A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW...THEN A CHANGEOVER TO FLURRIES AS
THIS SYSTEM EXITS EARLY MONDAY MORNING. THERE IS A MEDIUM TO LOW
(20 TO 40%) CHANCE OF LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS OUR NORTHERN TIER
OF COUNTIES AND ON THE PLATEAU. HAVE ADDED IN TRACE ACCUMULATIONS
OF SNOW FOR OUR NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES, BUT NO IMPACTS ARE
EXPECTED.
TEMPERATURES WILL RISE INTO THE 40S DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY AND
CLEARER SKIES WILL RETURN.
LONG TERM
(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1149 AM CST SUN JAN 26 2025
MOST OF THE WORK WEEK LOOKS VERY QUIET. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
MILD, WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S (AND MAYBE EVEN TOUCHING 60 WEDNESDAY
AND FRIDAY). PRECIP CHANCES WILL START TO BUILD WEDNESDAY EVENING,
MAXING OUT FROM THURSDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY AS A ROBUST UPPER LOW
SWINGS OUT OF THE PLAINS STATES AND POTENTIALLY BRINGS WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS TO MIDDLE TN. RIGHT NOW IT APPEARS THAT WE'LL BE WARM
ENOUGH FOR THE ENTIRETY OF THIS SYSTEM TO KEEP THE THREAT OF ANY
WINTRY WEATHER OUT OF OUR AREA.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1127 AM CST SUN JAN 26 2025
MVFR CIGS WILL BUILD IN THIS AFTERNOON WITH ALL TERMINALS IN MVFR
BY 00Z. CIGS WILL CONTINUE TO LOWER IN THE EVENING AND IFR IS
EXPECTED AFTER 04Z, LIFR CIGS WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR KCSV AFTER 09Z.
40-80% CHANCE OF LIGHT SHOWERS BETWEEN 04 AND 12Z WITH THE BEST
CHANCES SOUTH OF I-40 AND OVER THE PLATEAU. SOME SNOW MAY MIX IN
WITH THE SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE PLATEAU AFTER 09Z, 15-40% CHANCE OF
A DUSTING OF ACCUMULATION BY DAYBREAK. CIGS WILL START TO COME UP
AFTER 13Z FROM WEST TO EAST. LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS UNDER 5 KNOTS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
NASHVILLE 47 31 47 31 / 20 50 0 0
CLARKSVILLE 45 26 46 30 / 20 20 0 0
CROSSVILLE 46 32 42 25 / 10 70 10 0
COLUMBIA 47 32 47 29 / 20 60 0 0
COOKEVILLE 47 31 44 26 / 10 60 10 0
JAMESTOWN 46 29 42 26 / 10 60 10 0
LAWRENCEBURG 47 33 47 28 / 20 70 10 0
MURFREESBORO 49 32 47 27 / 20 60 0 0
WAVERLY 46 28 46 29 / 20 20 0 0
OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...WHITEHEAD
LONG TERM....WHITEHEAD
AVIATION.....MUELLER
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