581
FXUS64 KOHX 270159
AFDOHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
759 PM CST SUN JAN 26 2025
..NEW UPDATE
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 738 PM CST SUN JAN 26 2025
- CHANCES FOR LIGHT RAIN FOR TONIGHT HAVE INCREASED.
PRECIPITATION MAY SWITCH BRIEFLY TO SNOW OR A WINTRY MIX LATE
TONIGHT BEFORE ENDING. NO SIGNIFICANT TRAVEL IMPACTS EXPECTED.
- TEMPERATURES THE NEXT 7 DAYS WILL REMAIN AT OR ABOVE SEASONAL
NORMALS.
- THE NEXT ACTIVE WEATHER SYSTEM WILL BRING WIDESPREAD SHOWERS TO
MIDDLE TENNESSEE LATE IN THE WEEK AND NEXT WEEKEND. QPF WITH
THIS EVENT IS MUCH MORE ROBUST.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 738 PM CST SUN JAN 26 2025
SUNDAY WAS A CLOUDY, GLOOMY LOOKING DAY ACROSS THE AREA, BUT
TEMPERATURES MADE IT INTO THE UPPER 40S AND LOWER 50S. THE CLOUDS
HAD PRODUCED JUST A FEW SPRINKLES DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS.
THIS EVENING, WE ARE STARTING TO SEE MEASURABLE RAIN SHOWERS
DEVELOPING OVER OUR WESTERN COUNTIES. LIGHT SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE
TO GRADUALLY DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH LATE EVENING AS A
SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE FROM OUR WEST MEETS UP WITH A SLOW
MOVING COLD FRONT JUST NORTHWEST OF OUR AREA. MOST AREAS WILL HAVE
JUST A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH OF RAINFALL, BUT A TENTH TO
QUARTER INCH WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS OUR FAR SOUTHERN COUNTIES.
OVER THE NORTH HALF AND PLATEAU, THE INCOMING COLD FRONT WILL
MEET UP WITH THE LIGHT SHOWERS JUST IN TIME TO PRODUCE A FEW
SNOWFLAKES BEFORE THE PRECIPITATION EXITS. BY THE TIME TEMPS ARE
NEAR FREEZING, THE SNOWFLAKES WILL BE ENDING, SO POTENTIAL FOR
ACCUMULATION AND TRAVEL IMPACTS LOOKS LOW. HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF
THE UPPER CUMBERLAND WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCE FOR A LIGHT
DUSTING IN A FEW SPOTS, BUT MARGINAL TEMPERATURES WILL KEEP ANY
ROAD IMPACTS AT A MINIMUM.
MONDAY MORNING WILL START WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND TEMPS IN
THE UPPER 20S FOR NORTHWEST SECTIONS. ELSEWHERE, THE MORNING WILL
START MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH TEMPS IN THE LOW TO MID 30S. SUNSHINE
WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE MID STATE THROUGH THE DAY WITH HIGHS IN
THE 40S.
SHORT TERM
(REST OF TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1149 AM CST SUN JAN 26 2025
WE'VE SEEN LIGHT SPRINKLES ACROSS THE SOUTH THIS MORNING. THIS
PRECIP IS EXPECTED TO EXPAND NORTH ACROSS MOST OF MIDDLE TN
THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT HOURS. MOST OF WHAT FALLS
WILL REMAIN IN LIQUID FORM AS WE HAVE PLENTY OF WARM AIR NEAR THE
SURFACE, BUT LATE TONIGHT SOUNDINGS SHOW THE TEMPERATURE PROFILES
FALLING BELOW FREEZING MAINLY NORTH OF I-40, WHICH WILL SUPPORT AT
LEAST A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW...THEN A CHANGEOVER TO FLURRIES AS
THIS SYSTEM EXITS EARLY MONDAY MORNING. THERE IS A MEDIUM TO LOW
(20 TO 40%) CHANCE OF LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS OUR NORTHERN TIER
OF COUNTIES AND ON THE PLATEAU. HAVE ADDED IN TRACE ACCUMULATIONS
OF SNOW FOR OUR NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES, BUT NO IMPACTS ARE
EXPECTED.
TEMPERATURES WILL RISE INTO THE 40S DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY AND
CLEARER SKIES WILL RETURN.
LONG TERM
(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1149 AM CST SUN JAN 26 2025
MOST OF THE WORK WEEK LOOKS VERY QUIET. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
MILD, WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S (AND MAYBE EVEN TOUCHING 60 WEDNESDAY
AND FRIDAY). PRECIP CHANCES WILL START TO BUILD WEDNESDAY EVENING,
MAXING OUT FROM THURSDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY AS A ROBUST UPPER LOW
SWINGS OUT OF THE PLAINS STATES AND POTENTIALLY BRINGS WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS TO MIDDLE TN. RIGHT NOW IT APPEARS THAT WE'LL BE WARM
ENOUGH FOR THE ENTIRETY OF THIS SYSTEM TO KEEP THE THREAT OF ANY
WINTRY WEATHER OUT OF OUR AREA.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 512 PM CST SUN JAN 26 2025
WITH OUR NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM ON OUR DOORSTEP, CATS ARE GOING TO
START COMING DOWN OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AT ALL TERMINALS. CKV
LOOKS TO BE THE ONLY TO REMAIN VFR. LOOK FOR BNA/MQY TO BOTTOM OUT
AT MVFR, BUT BOTH SHOULD BE THERE WITHIN THE HOUR. CSV/SRB ON THE
OTHER HAND WILL SEE IFR BY 04Z, THEN LIFR IS IN THE CARDS FOR
SEVERAL HOURS AS RA/SN SETTLES IN FOR A FEW HOURS. PRECIP SHOULD
END BY 13-14Z, BUT LOWERED CIGS WILL REMAIN FOR A GOOD PORTION OF
MONDAY.
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT (LESS THAN 10 KTS) THROUGHOUT WITH A SHIFT TO
THE NORTHWEST BY MIDDAY, THEN WEST BY LATE IN THE PERIOD.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
NASHVILLE 30 47 31 56 / 50 0 0 0
CLARKSVILLE 26 46 29 54 / 20 0 0 0
CROSSVILLE 31 43 25 48 / 70 10 0 0
COLUMBIA 31 47 29 55 / 60 0 0 0
COOKEVILLE 31 43 26 50 / 60 10 0 0
JAMESTOWN 29 41 26 48 / 60 10 0 0
LAWRENCEBURG 32 47 28 55 / 70 10 0 0
MURFREESBORO 31 46 27 55 / 60 0 0 0
WAVERLY 27 45 29 54 / 30 0 0 0
OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
UPDATE.......13
SHORT TERM...WHITEHEAD
LONG TERM....WHITEHEAD
AVIATION.....UNGER
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