587
FXUS64 KOHX 270734
AFDOHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
134 AM CST MON JAN 27 2025
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 116 AM CST MON JAN 27 2025
- EARLY MORNING PRECIPITATION MAY SWITCH BRIEFLY TO SNOW OR A
WINTRY MIX LATE TONIGHT BEFORE ENDING. NO SIGNIFICANT TRAVEL
IMPACTS EXPECTED. PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE GONE BY DAYBREAK
EXCEPT FOR A FEW CUMBERLAND PLATEAU LOCATIONS.
- TEMPERATURES THE NEXT 7 DAYS WILL REMAIN AT OR ABOVE SEASONAL
NORMALS.
- THE NEXT ACTIVE WEATHER SYSTEM WILL BRING WIDESPREAD SHOWERS TO
MIDDLE TENNESSEE LATE IN THE WEEK AND NEXT WEEKEND. QPF WITH
THIS EVENT IS MUCH MORE ROBUST.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 116 AM CST MON JAN 27 2025
SURFACE TROUGH HAS ALREADY PASSED THROUGH MIDDLE TENNESSEE,
ALTHOUGH THERE IS STILL SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION SLIDING ACROSS
THE MID STATE BEHIND THE SURFACE BOUNDARY. THE FREEZING LINE IS
STILL NORTH OF THE TN/KY BORDER BUT SOME AREAS MAY STILL
EXPERIENCE A WINTRY MIX LATER TONIGHT BEFORE THE PRECIPITATION
ENDS ALTOGETHER. THIS IS NOT A DEEP SYSTEM, AS THE FLOW AT 500 MB
IS LARGELY ZONAL. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS ALREADY BUILDING IN
BEHIND THE NOW-DEPARTED TROUGH, SO SKIES LOOK TO CLEAR OUT FROM
WEST TO EAST DURING THE MORNING. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY
TOP OUT IN THE 40S, BUT WILL WARM QUITE NICELY TOMORROW OWING TO
ABUNDANT SUNSHINE.
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 116 AM CST MON JAN 27 2025
TEMPERATURES WILL BE EVEN WARMER WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY BEFORE
THE NEXT ACTIVE WEATHER SYSTEM DUMPS SOME RAIN ON MIDDLE
TENNESSEE. A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE MID
STATE PROBABLY ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL KICK OFF WHAT
LOOKS TO BE A SIGNIFICANT RAIN EVENT, WITH WIDESPREAD RAIN
CONTINUING THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY, THEN LIGHTER ACTIVITY
LINGERING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT AND ENDING SATURDAY. THE STORM
TOTAL QPF VALUES ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM RANGE FROM AROUND
0.75" ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU TO MORE THAN 2.5"
IN AREAS TO THE WEST AND NORTH OF NASHVILLE. MEANWHILE, A COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE ON FRIDAY WILL BRING ONLY NOMINALLY COOLER
TEMPERATURES TO THE MID STATE. INDEED, WE'LL WARM RIGHT BACK UP TO
ABOVE-NORMAL VALUES AS WE ENTER THE FIRST WEEK OF FEBRUARY.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1051 PM CST SUN JAN 26 2025
WITH OUR LATEST SYSTEM AFFECTING THE MID-STATE, LOWERED CIGS AND
LIGHT RAIN IS MOVING ACROSS THE AREA. CKV IS UNAFFECTED, BUT
BNA/MQY WILL HOLD ONTO MVFR CIGS THROUGH 13-14Z BEFORE RETURNING
TO VFR. CSV/SRB ARE GETTING THE RAW END OF THE DEAL WITH IFR TO
LIFR CIGS UNTIL LATE MONDAY MORNING.
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT (LESS THAN 10 KTS) THROUGHOUT WITH A SHIFT TO
THE NORTHWEST BY MIDDAY, THEN WEST BY LATE IN THE PERIOD.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
NASHVILLE 47 31 57 39 / 0 0 0 0
CLARKSVILLE 46 30 54 37 / 0 0 0 0
CROSSVILLE 43 26 48 35 / 20 0 0 0
COLUMBIA 47 29 55 38 / 0 0 0 0
COOKEVILLE 44 26 49 35 / 10 0 0 0
JAMESTOWN 42 26 48 35 / 10 0 0 0
LAWRENCEBURG 47 29 55 37 / 10 0 0 0
MURFREESBORO 47 27 55 36 / 0 0 0 0
WAVERLY 45 29 54 37 / 0 0 0 0
OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...ROSE
LONG TERM....ROSE
AVIATION.....UNGER
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