999
FXUS64 KOHX 271128
AFDOHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
528 AM CST MON JAN 27 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 519 AM CST MON JAN 27 2025
- EARLY MORNING PRECIPITATION MAY SWITCH BRIEFLY TO SNOW OR A
WINTRY MIX LATE TONIGHT BEFORE ENDING. NO SIGNIFICANT TRAVEL
IMPACTS EXPECTED. PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE GONE BY DAYBREAK
EXCEPT FOR A FEW CUMBERLAND PLATEAU LOCATIONS.
- TEMPERATURES THE NEXT 7 DAYS WILL REMAIN AT OR ABOVE SEASONAL
NORMALS.
- THE NEXT ACTIVE WEATHER SYSTEM WILL BRING WIDESPREAD SHOWERS TO
MIDDLE TENNESSEE LATE IN THE WEEK AND NEXT WEEKEND. QPF WITH
THIS EVENT IS MUCH MORE ROBUST.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 116 AM CST MON JAN 27 2025
SURFACE TROUGH HAS ALREADY PASSED THROUGH MIDDLE TENNESSEE,
ALTHOUGH THERE IS STILL SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION SLIDING ACROSS
THE MID STATE BEHIND THE SURFACE BOUNDARY. THE FREEZING LINE IS
STILL NORTH OF THE TN/KY BORDER BUT SOME AREAS MAY STILL
EXPERIENCE A WINTRY MIX LATER TONIGHT BEFORE THE PRECIPITATION
ENDS ALTOGETHER. THIS IS NOT A DEEP SYSTEM, AS THE FLOW AT 500 MB
IS LARGELY ZONAL. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS ALREADY BUILDING IN
BEHIND THE NOW-DEPARTED TROUGH, SO SKIES LOOK TO CLEAR OUT FROM
WEST TO EAST DURING THE MORNING. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY
TOP OUT IN THE 40S, BUT WILL WARM QUITE NICELY TOMORROW OWING TO
ABUNDANT SUNSHINE.
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 116 AM CST MON JAN 27 2025
TEMPERATURES WILL BE EVEN WARMER WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY BEFORE
THE NEXT ACTIVE WEATHER SYSTEM DUMPS SOME RAIN ON MIDDLE
TENNESSEE. A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE MID
STATE PROBABLY ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL KICK OFF WHAT
LOOKS TO BE A SIGNIFICANT RAIN EVENT, WITH WIDESPREAD RAIN
CONTINUING THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY, THEN LIGHTER ACTIVITY
LINGERING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT AND ENDING SATURDAY. THE STORM
TOTAL QPF VALUES ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM RANGE FROM AROUND
0.75" ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU TO MORE THAN 2.5"
IN AREAS TO THE WEST AND NORTH OF NASHVILLE. MEANWHILE, A COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE ON FRIDAY WILL BRING ONLY NOMINALLY COOLER
TEMPERATURES TO THE MID STATE. INDEED, WE'LL WARM RIGHT BACK UP TO
ABOVE-NORMAL VALUES AS WE ENTER THE FIRST WEEK OF FEBRUARY.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 519 AM CST MON JAN 27 2025
PATCHES OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION ARE STILL OCCURRING ACROSS PORTIONS
OF MIDDLE TENNESSEE, ALTHOUGH IN MANY CASES IT'S NOT HEAVY ENOUGH
TO RESTRICT VSBY. BNA, MQY AND CKV HAVE ALREADY GONE VFR, AND
EXISTING VFR CEILINGS WILL SCATTER OUT LATER THIS MORNING AS THE
CLEARING LINE MOVES FROM WEST TO EAST. SRB AND CSV ARE STILL
REPORTING OVERCAST LOW CEILINGS AND THESE WILL TAKE A LITTLE
LONGER, BUT EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO EMERGE THERE BY LATE MORNING/
EARLY AFTERNOON. FOLLOWING YESTERDAY'S TROUGH PASSAGE, HIGH
PRESSURE IS ALREADY BUILDING INTO THE REGION. SURFACE WINDS WILL
HAVE A NORTHERLY COMPONENT TODAY WITH SPEEDS OF 6 KTS OR LESS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
NASHVILLE 47 31 57 39 / 0 0 0 0
CLARKSVILLE 46 30 54 37 / 0 0 0 0
CROSSVILLE 43 26 48 35 / 20 0 0 0
COLUMBIA 47 29 55 38 / 0 0 0 0
COOKEVILLE 44 26 49 35 / 10 0 0 0
JAMESTOWN 42 26 48 35 / 10 0 0 0
LAWRENCEBURG 47 29 55 37 / 10 0 0 0
MURFREESBORO 47 27 55 36 / 0 0 0 0
WAVERLY 45 29 54 37 / 0 0 0 0
OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...ROSE
LONG TERM....ROSE
AVIATION.....ROSE
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