551
FXUS64 KOHX 271738
AFDOHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1138 AM CST MON JAN 27 2025
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1118 AM CST MON JAN 27 2025
- SUNNY AND WARMER THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS NEAR 60.
- THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE (80-90%) OF RAIN THURSDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY
MORNING WITH RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1.5 TO 2 INCHES LIKELY.
SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
SHORT TERM
(REST OF TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1118 AM CST MON JAN 27 2025
WE'RE STARTING THIS WEEK OFF QUITE COOL WITH CURRENT TEMPERATURES
IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S. DRIER AIR HAS SETTLED IN ACROSS MUCH OF
THE AREA BEHIND THE FRONT AS DEW POINT SPREADS ARE NEAR 15
DEGREES. SOME VERY LIGHT LINGERING PRECIP NOTED ON RADAR ACROSS
THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU. WHAT PRECIP IS LEFT WILL END OVER THE NEXT
FEW HOURS AS THE DRY AIR SPREADS EAST. TEMPERATURES WILL DROP
BELOW FREEZING FOR EVERYONE TONIGHT WITH MOST LOCATIONS
EXPERIENCING MID TO UPPER 20S. WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVING
NEARBY, TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND NICELY TOMORROW WITH HIGHS IN
THE 50S AND PLENTY OF SUNSHINE.
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1118 AM CST MON JAN 27 2025
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO WARM THROUGH THURSDAY AS RIDGING
BUILDS ALOFT. SUNNY SKIES WITH HIGHS NEAR 60 CAN BE EXPECTED
DURING THIS TIME AND REALLY, YOU CAN'T ASK FOR MUCH BETTER THAN
THAT AFTER HOW COLD IT'S BEEN. OUR NEXT WEATHERMAKER COMES
THURSDAY AS A DEVELOPING CUT OFF UPPER LEVEL LOW TRAVERSES THE US
WITHIN A POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGH. THIS WILL BRING VERY HIGH RAIN
CHANCES (80-90%) TO MIDDLE TENNESSEE DURING THE THURSDAY EVENING-
SATURDAY MORNING TIMEFRAME WITH THE BULK OF THE PRECIP FALLING
FRIDAY. THE CURRENT SETUP APPEARS TO BE LARGELY THUNDER-FREE, IF
NOT ENTIRELY THUNDER-FREE, AS MIDDLE TN WILL BE IN THE RIGHT EXIT
REGION OF THE UPPER LEVEL JET. CURRENT QPF VALUES RANGE FROM 1.5
TO 2 INCHES WITH THE HIGHER VALUES ACROSS ROUGHLY THE WESTERN HALF
OF THE CWA. UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL QUICKLY DEVELOP INTO A MORE
ZONAL PATTERN AS THE COLD FRONT EXITS THE AREA SATURDAY, SO
THINGS WILL DRY BACK OUT FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND WITH A
MIX OF SUN AND CLOUDS AND TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S. OVERNIGHT LOWS
THIS WEEK WILL BE IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1110 AM CST MON JAN 27 2025
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AT BNA/MQY/CKV FOR THE TAF PERIOD.
THE STRATUS DECK THAT HAS DEVELOPED AT CSV AND SRB WILL MOVE EAST
OF THE TERMINALS AROUND MID AFTERNOON ALLOWING FOR VFR CONDITIONS
TO RETURN. WINDS FOR THE FORECAST WILL BE AROUND 5 KTS OR LESS.
THE WINDS WILL BACK FROM THE WNW TO THE SW AT BNA/MQY/CKV DURING
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
NASHVILLE 47 31 56 39 / 0 0 0 0
CLARKSVILLE 46 30 54 38 / 0 0 0 0
CROSSVILLE 43 25 48 34 / 10 0 0 0
COLUMBIA 47 29 55 37 / 0 0 0 10
COOKEVILLE 44 26 49 34 / 10 0 0 0
JAMESTOWN 42 26 48 35 / 0 0 0 0
LAWRENCEBURG 47 28 55 36 / 10 0 0 10
MURFREESBORO 47 27 55 35 / 0 0 0 10
WAVERLY 45 29 54 37 / 0 0 0 0
OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...BAGGETT
LONG TERM....BAGGETT
AVIATION.....REAGAN
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